Mock Draft Analysis: Expert Picks and Strategies Across 10 Simulations

In the weeks following the NFL draft, 10 ESPN analysts -- including all eight rankers -- participated in 10 fantasy football mock drafts held over three days.

As with any group of managers who draft against one another time after time, there is a certain familiarity that comes with the territory. This group knows that its members are likely to take quarterbacks later than public sentiment might dictate. Certain analysts are known to have planted their flag on a certain player, or a well-known approach to rookies or veterans. They base their rankings on analytics, scouting and the news, but sometimes just follow a gut feel. That's why every mock draft is slightly different, and that's why we did it 10 times. Each analyst was given a chance to draft from every slot, first overall through 10th. Everyone had a chance to build a team around Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs and multiple chances to be aggressive on pursuing a certain angle, a certain position, even a certain player.

Trends emerged. Strategies were honed. Smack talk was exchanged. And in the end, we have a uniquely ESPN expert ADP encompassing the 185 players who were taken at least once during the exercise. In the chart below you will find them sorted by their overall ADP, plus, where applicable, the name of the analyst who hit "draft" on that player most often, as well as the average pick at which they did, the "preferred ADP." Below that, you will find each analyst's roster of most-drafted players and their insights in the form of answers to three questions tailored specifically to them and their teams.

Click on their name to jump directly to their roster and insights.

You were aggressive in your pursuit of George Kittle , taking him in 6 of 10 drafts. Why is he a target for you?

The value for the draft spot was exceptional, especially if you believe, as I do, that he will be ready to play early in the season, and coach Kyle Shanahan has suggested Week 1 as a possibility. This is May, but the early confidence speaks volumes, as does his work ethic and progress to date. He is a star in this offense, and in many cases he was also my second tight end. I was able to secure the likes of a midtier tight end and then later add Kittle, meaning I have tight end insurance at the start of the season (if Kittle needs more time) and also have a built-in backup if one tight end goes down due to injury.

You have no shares of Saquon Barkley . Are you fading him intentionally?

I was not intentionally fading him, but I was not intentionally targeting him either. Of the running backs available in his range, my preference is to take the upside that accompanies rookies, which is how I ended up with more Jeremiyah Love than anyone else. Some are uncomfortable with his as-yet-unproven-in-the-NFL status, but I'll take explosiveness, agility and pass-catching ability wrapped up in youth with a side of opportunity. I expect him to be the leader in a running back room which is likely to be less crowded come start of the season.

How did your draft strategy evolve throughout the exercise?

Despite my tendencies towards drafting certain players, I did try to play around with strategy a bit. Took two running backs out of the gate once, tried drafting one of the top two tight ends or drafting a tight end late, tried quarterback early versus quarterback late. I wanted to see how much I liked my overall team when I switched up the strategy. And the takeaways are these: Running back scarcity -- especially dual-threat ability combined with volume potential -- is a very real thing, and not drafting running backs early will not feel good by the fifth round.

I very much liked my teams with the high tight end pick ( Trey McBride ) and the difference a top-tier tight end makes -- emphasis on weekly versus total fantasy points -- can be a game winner. I don't have a strong feeling on quarterback because our group as a whole tends to take them late, making it hard to get a feel for what will happen in other leagues.

Last but not least, a reminder that if there is a player you really want and you're drafting among "friends," they will try to snipe you. Translation: You may have to reach occasionally, but if it's a guy you really want on your roster, there's no shame in that. It's your team.

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels , WSH, 40%, average pick: 54.0

Joe Burrow , CIN, 30%, average pick: 67.0

Brock Purdy , SF, 20%, average pick: 93.0

Running Backs

Jonathon Brooks , CAR, 60%, average pick: 103.3

Jeremiyah Love , ARI, 40%, average pick: 12.3

Christian McCaffrey , SF, 30%, average pick: 4.0

Bucky Irving , TB, 30%, average pick: 38.3

Jadarian Price , SEA, 30%, average pick: 48.3

Jahmyr Gibbs , DET, 20%, average pick: 1.5

Javonte Williams , DAL, 20%, average pick: 32.5

Bhayshul Tuten , JAX, 20%, average pick: 59.0

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins , HOU, 40%, average pick: 21.8

George Pickens , DAL, 40%, average pick: 30.5

KC Concepcion , CLE, 40%, average pick: 96.5

Quentin Johnston , LAC, 40%, average pick: 119.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET, 30%, average pick: 7.3

Rome Odunze , CHI, 30%, average pick: 56.0

Jordyn Tyson , NO, 30%, average pick: 66.7

Michael Wilson , ARI, 30%, average pick: 87.3

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert , PHI, 60%, average pick: 88.8

George Kittle , SF, 60%, average pick: 104.2

Defenses

Patriots D/ST , NE, 40%, average pick: 146.8

Ravens D/ST , BAL, 20%, average pick: 144.0

Kickers

Brandon Aubrey , DAL, 70%, average pick: 134.7

Jake Bates , DET, 20%, average pick: 155.5

You took Chris Olave 6 times. Why is he a target for you?

I get the injury concerns/history with Olave. But I'm buying stock in the Saints' offense this season. Remember, Olave is a three-level glider who can create his own separation with big-play juice and route running. Plus, with the upside of second-year quarterback Tyler Shough in Kellen Moore's QB-friendly system along with the addition of rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson , Olave will see more one-on-one opportunities. He has top-eight upside at the position this season.

You didn't get any Justin Jefferson . Why are you avoiding him in the second round?

Jefferson is still the league's premier route runner. He's going to make himself available to the QB. We know that. However, I'm not sold on Kyler Murray as the upgrade needed to facilitate consistent production for Jefferson in Kevin O'Connell's offense. Even with Jefferson's ability to post some big-time weeks on his own talent, in the second round i was prioritizing a running back or a receiver with more stability at the QB spot.

Is running back a priority for you, then?

Yes. Get in on the RBs early. If you want a No.1 ball carrier, be prepared for an early run at the position. This was evident in all of our mocks. So, don't be afraid to pass on a wide receiver high on your board to land a running back who can give you top-end volume and scoring production. And you have time to target a receiver, as there is more depth at the position this season and you'll have good ones to pick from in the middle rounds.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow , CIN, 30%, average pick: 68.3

Drake Maye , NE, 20%, average pick: 64.0

Dak Prescott , DAL, 20%, average pick: 97.0

Running Backs

Jadarian Price , SEA, 60%, average pick: 53.2

Kyren Williams , LAR, 30%, average pick: 34.0

Tony Pollard , TEN, 30%, average pick: 75.0

Rhamondre Stevenson , NE, 30%, average pick: 88.7

Jordan Mason , MIN, 30%, average pick: 122.3

Jeremiyah Love , ARI, 20%, average pick: 13.5

Breece Hall , NYJ, 20%, average pick: 24.5

David Montgomery , HOU, 20%, average pick: 61.5

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave , NO, 60%, average pick: 25.2

Omar Cooper Jr. , NYJ, 60%, average pick: 128.2

Makai Lemon , PHI, 50%, average pick: 80.8

Romeo Doubs , NE, 50%, average pick: 115.2

Tee Higgins , CIN, 40%, average pick: 40.8

Tetairoa McMillan , CAR, 30%, average pick: 32.7

Luther Burden III , CHI, 30%, average pick: 58.3

Alec Pierce , IND, 30%, average pick: 68.3

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson , DAL, 40%, average pick: 105.8

T.J. Hockenson , MIN, 20%, average pick: 124.0

Defenses

Rams D/ST , LAR, 30%, average pick: 144.0

Patriots D/ST , NE, 30%, average pick: 146.3

Kickers

Cam Little , JAX, 30%, average pick: 158.0

Jason Myers , SEA, 20%, average pick: 152.5

You took Garrett Wilson in half of these drafts. What makes him worthy of being a must-have WR2?

Wilson has been selected in the 27-35 range in all 10 drafts, whereas I have him 26th in my overall rankings. That being the case, it's no surprise that he's happened to be atop my queue in the fourth round quite often. As a product of an injury-plagued 2025, we seem to be getting a bit of a discount on one of the best talents at the wide receiver position. Wilson was seeing a massive 33% target share, when healthy, last season, and he finished sixth or better in targets in each of his first three pro seasons. Geno Smith may not be elite, but he's good enough to turn Wilson's talent and heavy usage into more consistent fantasy output.

You did not draft Omarion Hampton . Are you avoiding him on purpose?

Absolutely not. This is simply a product of the way drafts have been flowing. I'm in on Hampton and have him ranked as a midrange RB1 in a tier with Jeremiyah Love , James Cook and Ashton Jeanty . His 18.1 ADP in these 10 drafts aligns with my overall ranking (18th), so I hope to generate some exposure moving forward.

What was your biggest takeaway from these mocks?

Reaching on a quarterback in the first few rounds is a waste of a pick. Though I think you can justify taking a shot on Josh Allen (I have him projected way ahead of the next tier of passers), I can't bring myself to do it simply because there are quality starters available in the mid-to-late rounds of these drafts. I've found myself "settling" for Lamar Jackson in the sixth or seventh round, but even the likes of Trevor Lawrence , Dak Prescott and Bo Nix several rounds later are palatable options.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson , BAL, 40%, average pick: 56.8

Bo Nix , DEN, 40%, average pick: 118.3

Drake Maye , NE, 30%, average pick: 66.0

Running Backs

Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WSH, 50%, average pick: 115.6

Jeremiyah Love , ARI, 20%, average pick: 14.0

Breece Hall , NYJ, 20%, average pick: 29.0

Quinshon Judkins , CLE, 20%, average pick: 43.5

Chuba Hubbard , CAR, 20%, average pick: 68.5

Jaylen Warren , PIT, 20%, average pick: 79.0

Bijan Robinson , ATL, 10%, average pick: 1.0

Jahmyr Gibbs , DET, 10%, average pick: 2.0

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley , TEN, 60%, average pick: 129.8

Garrett Wilson , NYJ, 50%, average pick: 31.2

Parker Washington , JAX, 50%, average pick: 84.4

Drake London , ATL, 30%, average pick: 14.3

Rashee Rice , KC, 30%, average pick: 17.0

KC Concepcion , CLE, 30%, average pick: 94.7

Puka Nacua , LAR, 20%, average pick: 4.0

Zay Flowers , BAL, 20%, average pick: 38.5

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland , CHI, 40%, average pick: 47.3

Brock Bowers , LV, 20%, average pick: 25.0

Defenses

Steelers D/ST , PIT, 40%, average pick: 144.0

Ravens D/ST , BAL, 30%, average pick: 147.7

Kickers

Harrison Butker , KC, 40%, average pick: 157.5

Jason Myers , SEA, 10%, average pick: 150.0

You drafted Kyle Monangai six times but have zero shares of D'Andre Swift . Should we be reading something into that?

Yes, partly a personal preference thing in what could be closer to a committee backfield in Monangai's second season, but more than that, I liked the value. Swift's ADP had him going late sixth/early seventh, and I often liked the quarterbacks available there, while Monangai was routinely there in Round 9, when I was going for upside plays at the position.

You did not draft Christian McCaffrey at all; is he someone you are avoiding this season?

At his current price tag -- fifth overall in ADP, whether in public drafts or for our purposes -- yes. There are risk factors present with McCaffrey that I don't consider equal to the others in my top five: He's now

_Originally reported by [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/48829169/fantasy-football-mock-draft-result-10-team-ppr)._