2026 Fantasy Football Busts 1.0: Why to Avoid Mahomes, Brown, and McBride Early

2026 Fantasy Football Busts 1.0: Avoid Patrick Mahomes, A.J. Brown, and Trey McBride in the early rounds

Heath Cummings breaks down a few players you'll want to avoid in the early rounds

By Heath Cummings

May 13, 2026 at 10:51 am ET • 2 min read

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Generally, in my busts column, I like to make the point early and often that my calling someone a bust does not mean I think they are bad at football. If you are in the NFL you are definitely good at football. If you are being drafted high enough to be called a bust, you just may be great at football. Of course, in mid-May, we don't know exactly where ADP will settle by August, so this may be better titled 'Potential Busts' or 'Guys I think everyone is going to draft too high'. Not quite as catchy as Busts 1.0, is it?

Certainly, the most controversial name on my early bust list is Trey McBride . McBride lapped the field at tight end last year and was arguably worth a Round 1 pick based on his production. Of course, you don't get credit in 2026 for 2025 production. And I would argue that McBride's situation has changed enough that you should not count on similar production.

The two most obvious changes in Arizona are a new coaching staff and the team's selection of Jeremiyah Love at third overall. The latter makes it likely the Cardinals run more and throw less; the former makes it likely that McBride's target share falls. Both were outliers last year.

Arizona's 649 pass attempts in 2025 were the most in the NFL. A lot of that was due to game scripts in the second half of the season. They lost their last nine games, and six of those nine losses were by at least three scores. The Cardinals may still be behind a lot in 2026, but it is unlikely they face as many big deficits. When they do pass, I would not expect them to target McBride as often as they have the past three seasons.

As I wrote about in Breakouts 1.0 , Drew Petzing ran one of the most tight-end-friendly offenses in the league the past three seasons, with 27% of the team's targets going to tight ends. The Cardinals' new head coach, Mike LaFleur, has run Sean McVay's offense the past three seasons, with 18% of targets going to tight ends. Two rebuttals to this argument are true. One, they didn't have Trey McBride in Los Angeles. Two, the Rams changed gears last year, and threw 25% of their passes to the tight end. But they also led the league in three tight end sets and spread those targets around.

The final reason I expect a step back from McBride is simple regression. He scored six touchdowns on 292 targets in his first three seasons in the NFL. He scored 11 touchdowns on 169 targets last year.

McBride was so much better than everyone else at the position last year that he could lose four points per game and still be TE1 in 2026. That is pretty close to my expectation. There is no way he will be worth a Round 2 pick if that happens, and Round 3 would be a stretch. The tight end position is deeper than ever, with at least six legitimate candidates to be TE1 this year. You can find some of them three or four rounds later than McBride. That is the better play in 2026.

Here are seven more early busts:

Busts 1.0 Projections powered by Sportsline

Patrick Mahomes

QB

KC Kansas City

• #15

Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

126th

QB RNK

15th

PROJ PTS

360.7

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

PAYDS

3587

RUYDS

422

TD

27

INT

11

FPTS/G

23.6

This one requires the most ADP projection. In early drafts, people are rightly wary of Mahomes' coming off a major leg injury. But reports are positive and if he is at training camp as expected in July, I expect his ADP to rise in a hurry. I have three big concerns. One, the Chiefs acquisition of Kenneth Walker and the return of Eric Bienemy makes me think they will run significantly more. Two, even if Mahomes is 'healthy' for Week 1, I expect he will run significantly less. Three, they didn't really solve their problems against man defense, namely that they don't have receivers that can regularly beat man coverage. Fewer pass attempts, fewer rush attempts, no huge increase in passing efficiency. That is a bad combination and I am not sure Mahomes will be a top 12 QB in Fantasy this year.

A.J. Brown

WR

PHI Philadelphia

• #11

Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

33rd

WR RNK

14th

PROJ PTS

248.2

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

REC

78

TAR

121

REYDS

1003

TD

7

FPTS/G

14.7

People are much more excited about A.J. Brown in New England than I am. While his efficiency may improve, I do not like to bet on 29-year-old wide receivers bouncing back off career low efficiency. I am also not sure that he will see a big boost in targets in a run-heavy Patriots offense that has traditionally spread the ball around a lot. He is going to end up getting drafted at the two-three turn in drafts and I am not going to be comfortable with him before Round 4.

Bucky Irving

RB

TB Tampa Bay

• #7

Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

43rd

RB RNK

21st

PROJ PTS

228.3

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

RUYDS

588

REC

30

REYDS

277

TD

4

FPTS/G

13.9

We should be getting into the less controversial busts now. Irving still isn't fully recovered from the shoulder injury he suffered in 2025, so there is red flag number one. Possibly due to the shoulder, he was the third most efficient rusher for Tampa Bay last year, behind both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, red flag number two. The team lost White to free agency, but added Kenneth Gainwell, who had 85 targets last year in Pittsburgh. They also kept Tucker, who took the short-yardage role away from Irving last year. Irving looks like the poster boy for trap backs in 2026, potentially without a large role in the passing game or the work at the goal line. I would not draft him before Round 5.

Jadarian Price

RB

SEA Seattle

• #8

Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

60th

RB RNK

25th

PROJ PTS

160.3

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

RUYDS

0

REC

0

REYDS

0

TD

0

FPTS/G

0

We love rookie running backs and despite the Seahawks insistence that they will stick with a committee I expect Price's ADP to get juiced up when Zach Charbonnet likely starts the year on the PUP. That would be a mistake, as the team still plans on using both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani. Price could be a nice flex, with weekly RB2 upside, but I would be very surprised if he regularly sees even 15 touches per game at any point in the season. The worst thing is that Charbonnet could be back for the most important part of the Fantasy season. I would not draft Price before Round 6 and I prefer him in Round 7. There is a strong possibility he isn't even a good pick there.

Chuba Hubbard

RB

CAR Carolina

• #30

Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

65th

RB RNK

28th

PROJ PTS

170.5

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

RUYDS

511

REC

30

REYDS

223

TD

4

FPTS/G

8.4

Hubbard is going to be 27 at the start of the year and in five seasons he has exactly one year with more than 100 rush attempts and a rush average over 4.0 yards per carry. He has also only topped 40 receptions once in his career. The Panthers have two younger backs, in Jonathon Brooks and Trevor Etienne who could cut into Hubbard's workload, or simply outplay him, like Rico Dowdle did last season. I would much rather draft the young guys late than Hubbard at his likely ADP.

Mike Evans

WR

SF San Francisco

• #13

Age: 32 • Experience: 13 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

68th

WR RNK

30th

PROJ PTS

213.5

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

REC

30

TAR

62

REYDS

368

TD

3

FPTS/G

10.6

Mike Evans and Davante Adams are both on my bust list and the tag line could be the same for both: Father Time is undefeated. Evans only played eight games last year and only topped 60 receiving yards in one of those games. He's battled hamstring injuries each of the last two years and posted an abysmal 5.9 yards per target in 2025, by far a career low. The 49ers have been a run heavy team most years under Kyle Shanahan and they are also a team that gives a lower percentage of their targets to wide receivers, with only 51.9% of their passes going to receivers the past three seasons. Evans best chance at being a Fantasy starter is if he is a goal line receiver like Adams was last year, that is a bad bet in the first six rounds of a Fantasy draft.

Davante Adams

WR

LAR L.A. Rams

• #17

Age: 33 • Experience: 13 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

59th

WR RNK

25th

PROJ PTS

221.4

SOS

1

ADP

NR

2025 Stats

REC

60

TAR

114

REYDS

789

TD

14

FPTS/G

15.9

Mike Evans and Davante Adams are both on my bust list and the tag line could be the same for both: Father Time is undefeated. Adams' touchdowns masked the fact that he had a pretty gross year in 2025. Due to Puka Nacua, he only had 114 targets in 14 games and he caught a career low 52.6% of those targets. His 56.4 receiving yards per game was his lowest since 2015. Any touchdown regression at all, and there almost certainly will be some, could destroy his Fantasy value. I view him as a WR3, who shouldn't be drafted before late Round 6.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2026-fantasy-football-busts-1-0-avoid-patrick-mahomes-a-j-brown-and-trey-mcbride-in-the-early-rounds/)._