2026 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Horses, Odds, and Expert Picks for May 2 Race

2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, race date: Surprising picks by elite horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

By Ross Kelly

May 1, 2026 at 10:00 pm ET • 4 min read

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Trainer Brad Cox is technically looking for his second Kentucky Derby win during the 2026 installment of the Run for the Roses, but it'd be far different this time if either of his horses in the field win this year. Cox will send Further Ado and Commandment to the starting line on Saturday, May 2, at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs, and they are among the favorites in the field as both are 6-1, trailing only Renegade. Cox's Mandaloun is the official winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but that was only after Bob Baffert's Medina Spirit was disqualified later for a failed drug test. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive  TwinSpires offer code  CBSSPORTS to  receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public :

Should you back one of Cox's horses when placing Kentucky Derby bets, or are there better values on the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds board? Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to  see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets .

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing ,  TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her  2026 Kentucky Derby betting  picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine.  You can head to SportsLine now to see them .

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. The reason? Conditioning. Even in victory, Commandment showed signs of fading down the stretch in the Florida Derby, and the Kentucky Derby is an even longer race.

"I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu told SportsLine. "He was very game in his Florida Derby score, though." Additionally, while Commandment will have one of the most experienced jockeys in the field in Luis Saez, he's 0-for-12 in the Kentucky Derby in the past, finishing no better than third back in 2021.  See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine .

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma at 10-1. Jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado, who won the 2023 Kentucky Derby as a tandem with Mage, have re-united for the 2026 Kentucky Derby with The Puma. Yu is high on the horse in this year's Run for the Roses. His best races put him right in the mix, and these connections have won a Derby before," Yu told SportsLine. "He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent."

Castellano made some history in 2023 during the Triple Crown, winning two of the three legs while riding different horses. That should help him get the best out of The Puma, who won the Tampa Bay Derby and finished second in Florida.  See which other horses to back at SportsLine , and you can  sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager :

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She's also is high on a longshot who has "connections that can get it done." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine .

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers?  Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby , and find out.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

Post  Horse Odds Projection 1 Renegade 4-1 SEE PICKS 2 Albus 30-1 SEE PICKS 3 Intrepido 50-1 SEE PICKS 4 Litmas Test 30-1 SEE PICKS 5 Right to Party 30-1 SCR 6 Commandment 6-1 SEE PICKS 7 Danon Bourbon 20-1 SEE PICKS 8 So Happy 15-1 SEE PICKS 9 The Puma 10-1 SEE PICKS 10 Wonder Dean 30-1 SEE PICKS 11 Incredibolt 20-1 SEE PICKS 12 Chief Wallabee 8-1 SEE PICKS 13 Silent Tactic 20-1 SCR 14 Potente 20-1 SEE PICKS 15 Emerging Market 15-1 SEE PICKS 16 Pavlovian 30-1 SEE PICKS 17 Six Speed 50-1 SEE PICKS 18 Further Ado 6-1 SEE PICKS 19 Golden Tempo 30-1 SEE PICKS 20 Fulleffort 20-1 SCR 21 Great White 50-1 SEE PICKS 22 Ocelli 50-1 SEE PICKS 23 Robusta 50-1 SEE PICKS

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2026-kentucky-derby-predictions-horses-odds-race-date-surprising-picks-by-elite-horse-racing-expert/)._