2026 U.S. Open: Golf model’s surprising picks for Shinnecock Hills after 10,000 simulations

The 2026 U.S. Open is just around the corner as the major event tees off on Thursday, June 18 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) were the year's first two major winners, and they're both in the 2026 U.S. Open field. J.J. Spaun is the defending U.S. Open champion, while Brooks Koepka won this event the last time the U.S. Open was at Shinnecock Hills in 2018.

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +550. McIlroy is +1000, while Koepka (+2200), Spaun (+4000) and Rai (+6000) are longer shots. Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Visit our  DraftKings promo code  review to see their latest offers and get started.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals  golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites .

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field is taking shape, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

2026 U.S. Open predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2026: Xander Schauffele, who is +1600, stumbles and finishes outside the top 5. He's a golfer to fade in U.S. Open best bets. Schauffele is just two years removed from a two-major season in 2024. His only win since that point was the 2025 Baycurrent Classic against a relatively weak field. He's also finished T12 or worse in three of his past four tournaments, so the model isn't high on him in the outright market against this loaded 2026 U.S. Open field.  See who else to fade here .

Another surprise: Ludvig Aberg (+2000) is a top-3 contender on the projected leaderboard despite being 0 for 10 in his major career and missing the cut at last year's U.S. Open. Aberg has been red-hot this spring, finishing in the top 10 in six of seven tournaments between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PGA Championship. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, and he's been exceptional off the tee, ranking second in total driving strokes gained and 12th in average driving distance.  See who else to pick here .

New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review to see their latest offers and get started.

How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one going off around 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title.  You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors , including three in 2025.

2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here . (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +1000 Jon Rahm +1400 Xander Schauffele +1600 Tommy Fleetwood +1800 Cameron Young +2000 Ludvig Aberg +2000 Bryson DeChambeau +2000 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Brooks Koepka +2200 Sam Burns +3000 Tyrrell Hatton +3300 Justin Thomas +3500 Wyndham Clark +3500 Justin Rose +3500 Collin Morikawa +4000 Patrick Reed +4000 Russell Henley +4000 Si Woo Kim +4000 JJ Spaun +4000 Shane Lowry +4500 Chris Gotterup +4500 Viktor Hovland +5000 Patrick Cantlay +5000 Hideki Matsuyama +5500 Joaquin Niemann +5500 Jordan Spieth +6000 Aaron Rai +6000 Min Woo Lee +6000 Robert MacIntyre +6000 Cameron Smith +6500 Ben Griffin +6500 Kristoffer Reitan +6500 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +7000 Tony Finau +7000 Jason Day +7000 Will Zalatoris +7000 Maverick McNealy +7500 Jake Knapp +8000 J.T. Poston +8000 Sepp Straka +8000 Rickie Fowler +8000 Akshay Bhatia +8000 Jacob Bridgeman +8000 Kurt Kitayama +8000 Alex Fitzpatrick +8000 Sahith Theegala +10000 Harris English +10000 Corey Conners +10000 Daniel Berger +10000 Taylor Pendrith +10000 Alex Noren +10000 Adam Scott +10000 Ryan Fox +10000 Max Homa +10000 Sungjae Im +10000 Carlos Ortiz +10000

Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-golf-predictions-field-favorites-contenders-course/)._