2026 U.S. Open: Golf model’s surprising picks for Shinnecock Hills

The 2026 U.S. Open is just around the corner as the major event tees off on Thursday, June 18 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) were the year's first two major winners, and they're both in the 2026 U.S. Open field. J.J. Spaun is the defending U.S. Open champion, while Brooks Koepka won this event the last time the U.S. Open was at Shinnecock Hills in 2018.

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +550 as he attempts to complete the Career Grand Slam. McIlroy is at +1200 to win his first U.S. Open in 15 years, following closely by Jon Rahm at +1300. Koepka (+3500), Spaun (+5000) and Rai (+8000) are longer shots. Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals  golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites .

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field is taking shape, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

2026 U.S. Open predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2026: Xander Schauffele stumbles and finishes outside the top 5. He's a golfer to fade in U.S. Open best bets. Schauffele is just two years removed from a two-major season in 2024. His only win since that point was the 2025 Baycurrent Classic against a relatively weak field. He's also finished T12 or worse in three of his past four tournaments, so the model isn't high on him in the outright market against this loaded 2026 U.S. Open field, especially considering he hasn't had a top 5 in each of his last five U.S. Open starts.  See who else to fade here .

Another surprise: Ludvig Aberg (+2200) is a top-3 contender on the projected leaderboard despite being 0 for 10 in his major career and missing the cut at last year's U.S. Open. Aberg has been red-hot this spring, finishing in the top 10 in six of seven tournaments between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PGA Championship. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, and he's been exceptional off the tee, ranking second in total driving strokes gained and 12th in average driving distance.  See who else to pick here .

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How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one going off around 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title.  You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors , including three in 2025.

2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here . (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +1200 Jon Rahm +1300 Cameron Young +2000 Tommy Fleetwood +2200 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Ludvig Åberg +2200 Xander Schauffele +2200 Bryson DeChambeau +2500 Brooks Koepka +3500 Russell Henley +3500 Collin Morikawa +4000 Sam Burns +4000 Justin Rose +4000 Tyrrell Hatton +4000 Si Woo Kim +4000 Justin Thomas +4000 Wyndham Clark +4000 Chris Gotterup +4500 Patrick Cantlay +4500 Patrick Reed +4500 Viktor Hovland +4500 J.J. Spaun +5000 Hideki Matsuyama +6000 Jordan Spieth +6500 Robert MacIntyre +6500 Joaquin Niemann +6500 Shane Lowry +6500 Aaron Rai +8000 Min Woo Lee +8000 Adam Scott +8000 Kurt Kitayama +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +10000 Harris English +10000 Alex Smalley +10000 Akshay Bhatia +10000 Maverick McNealy +10000 Alex Fitzpatrick +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Cameron Smith +10000 Ryan Gerard +10000 Nicolai Højgaard +10000 Kristoffer Reitan +10000 Sepp Straka +10000 Alex Noren +10000 Bud Cauley +10000

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-course-pga-predictions-field-favorites/)._