2026 U.S. Open Predictions: Golf Model Simulates 10,000 Times for Surprising Picks

The 2026 U.S. Open tees off on Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) were the year's first two major winners, and they're both in the 2026 U.S. Open field. J.J. Spaun is the defending U.S. Open champion, while Brooks Koepka won this event at 1 over the last time it was at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +550 as he attempts to complete the Career Grand Slam.

McIlroy is at +1200 to win his first U.S. Open in 15 years, following closely by Jon Rahm at +1500. Xander Schauffele is +1600, Tommy Fleetwood is +1800 and Matt Fitzpatrick is +2000. Koepka (+4500), Spaun (+6000) and Rai (+6500) are longer shots. Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals  golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites .

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field has finalized, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

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2026 U.S. Open predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2026: Rahm, the third favorite at +1500, stumbles and finishes outside the top 5. He's a golfer to fade in U.S. Open best bets. Rahm won the U.S. Open in 2021, but hasn't finished better than T-7 at this event since that point. He finished T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but that's the first top-five in a major he's had since 2023, so the model doesn't love him as a win contender this week.  See who else to fade here .

Another surprise: Cameron Young is a top-5 contender on the projected leaderboard despite never having won a major and having slightly longer odds at +2200. Young has two wins and six top-10 finishes this year, including a T-3 performance at the Masters. His strong driving metrics bode well for success at Shinnecock Hills, making him a golfer to back in 2026 U.S. Open win and top-5 bets.  See who else to pick here .

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How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one shocking pick who is going off around 45-1 and makes a run for the title.  You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors , including three in 2025.

2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here . (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +1200 Jon Rahm +1500 Xander Schauffele +1600 Tommy Fleetwood +1800 Matt Fitzpatrick +2000 Cameron Young +2200 Ludvig Åberg +2500 Russell Henley +3300 Si Woo Kim +3500 Bryson DeChambeau +3500 Collin Morikawa +4000 Chris Gotterup +4000 Patrick Reed +4000 Sam Burns +4000 Tyrrell Hatton +4000 Brooks Koepka +4500 Patrick Cantlay +5000 Viktor Hovland +5000 Justin Rose +5000 Justin Thomas +5000 Wyndham Clark +5000 Maverick McNealy +6000 Min Woo Lee +6000 Kurt Kitayama +6000 J.J. Spaun +6000 Aaron Rai +6500 Jordan Spieth +7000 Harris English +7000 Hideki Matsuyama +7000 Joaquin Niemann +7000 Shane Lowry +7000 Alex Fitzpatrick +8000 Robert MacIntyre +8000 Cameron Smith +8000 Ryan Gerard +8000 Adam Scott +8000 Kristoffer Reitan +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +10000 Jacob Bridgeman +10000 David Puig +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Nicolai Højgaard +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Sepp Straka +10000 Alex Noren +10000 Bud Cauley +10000

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-golf-odds-picks-field-predictions-course-date-pga-best-bets/)._