2026 U.S. Open Predictions: Scheffler, McIlroy, and More From a Model With 17 Major Wins

The 2026 U.S. Open field boasts 156 players, but only one of them can complete the career Grand Slam with a victory. That is the World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, whose best previous finish was a runner-up in 2022. Others likes Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele can reach third base of the career slam with triumphs at the U.S. Open 2026. Then there's the likes of Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick and defending winner J.J. Spaun who all could become multi-time U.S. Open champions with a win.

The 2026 U.S. Open will begin on Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET from Shinnecock Hills in New York. Scheffler (+550) and Rory McIlroy (+1200) top the 2026 U.S. Open odds board, followed by Jon Rahm (+1500), Schauffele (+1600) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1800). Morikawa and Spaun are each U.S. Open longshots at +4000 and +6000, respectively. Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

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SportsLine's proprietary golf betting model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

2026 U.S. Open predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka

One pick from the model for the U.S. Open 2026: Brooks Koepka, who won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and is at +4500 in the U.S. Open odds 2026, stumbles big time and doesn't even finish in the top 75. Koepka has superb ball-striking metrics this season in his return to the PGA Tour, but his wayward putting could be magnified at Shinnecock. The course is known for its challenging greens, and Koepka has been amongst the worse putters this year. He ranks outside the top 125 in strokes gained: putting, total putting and overall putting average.

The five-time major winner used to have the reputation as someone who elevated his level of play for big events. But that rep is no longer warranted as Koepka doesn't have a single top 10 over his last 12 major tournaments. He also has no top 10s over his last four U.S. Open appearances, and while he's made the cut in each, his average finish position is just 27.5.

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The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+550) who, with a victory, would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. His best finish at this major was a runner-up in 2022, as he's placed in the top 7 in four of his last five U.S. Open starts. Scheffler has also finished in the top 7 in six of his last seven major tournaments but hasn't been his typical dominant self in 2026.

After having at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, Scheffler has just one victory this year. Still though, he's been in contention throughout the year as half of his 12 events have resulted in top-3 finishes. Scheffler has never competed at Shinnecock before, and the last time he played a course for the first time at a major, he placed 14th at this year's PGA Championship.

The model has also examined McIlroy's (+1200) chances of becoming a two-time U.S. Open champion, after winning the event 15 years ago in 2011. That was the Irishman's first major win, while his last missed cut at the U.S. Open came when Shinnecock last hosted in 2018. Historically, this has been McIlroy's weakest major, with his most missed cuts (5) and tied for his fewest top 5s (4).

While McIlroy ranks in the top 5 in SG: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, he is just 125th in driving accuracy percentage. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but they are still challenging due to the thick 5-inch rough that surrounds them. How McIlroy is able to navigate those fairways with his driving not as precise this year will go a long way in deciding if the Masters winner picks up his second major win of the year.  See the full U.S. Open projections from the model here .

How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one who is going off around 45-1.  You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters .

2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here .

Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +1200 Jon Rahm +1500 Xander Schauffele +1600 Tommy Fleetwood +1800 Matt Fitzpatrick +2000 Cameron Young +2200 Ludvig Åberg +2500 Russell Henley +3300 Si Woo Kim +3500 Bryson DeChambeau +3500 Collin Morikawa +4000 Chris Gotterup +4000 Patrick Reed +4000 Sam Burns +4000 Tyrrell Hatton +4000 Brooks Koepka +4500 Patrick Cantlay +5000 Viktor Hovland +5000 Justin Rose +5000 Justin Thomas +5000 Wyndham Clark +5000 Maverick McNealy +6000 Min Woo Lee +6000 Kurt Kitayama +6000 J.J. Spaun +6000 Aaron Rai +6500 Jordan Spieth +7000 Harris English +7000 Hideki Matsuyama +7000 Joaquin Niemann +7000 Shane Lowry +7000 Alex Fitzpatrick +8000 Robert MacIntyre +8000 Cameron Smith +8000 Ryan Gerard +8000 Adam Scott +8000 Kristoffer Reitan +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +10000 Jacob Bridgeman +10000 David Puig +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Nicolai Højgaard +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Sepp Straka +10000 Alex Noren +10000 Bud Cauley +10000

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-field-golfers-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-brooks-koepka-predictions-best-bets-finish-positions/)._