2026 U.S. Open Predictions: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy Favored by Proven Model

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, N.Y., will host the 2026 U.S Open, beginning on Thursday, June 18. It marks the sixth time the links course will host the major, with Brooks Koepka (2018) prevailing the last time the U.S. Open headed to Shinnecock. Koepka is one of a dozen past champions in the U.S. Open 2026 field, joining the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy.

However, someone who has yet to win this major tops the 2026 U.S. Open odds in Scottie Scheffler (+550). McIlroy (+1200) is the only other golfer shorter than +1300 to utilize in PGA bets as he looks to become the 12th golfer with seven major titles. Other contenders include Rahm (+1300), Cameron Young (+2200) and Ludvig Aberg (+2200). Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

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SportsLine's proprietary golf betting model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

2026 U.S. Open predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka

One pick from the model for the U.S. Open 2026: Brooks Koepka (+2500), who won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and is among the 10 golfers with the shortest odds this year, stumbles big time and doesn't even finish in the top 25. Koepka's return season on the PGA Tour has been uneven, with just one top 10 despite playing against weaker fields as he doesn't qualify for signature events. He's also struggled both off the tee and on the green as he ranks outside the top 100 tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained: putting.

Koepka's won five majors, but that seems like lifetimes ago based off his recent performances. He doesn't have a single top 10 over his last 12 major tournament starts. That includes seven finishes outside the top 40, compared to just three finishes inside the top 25. The model doesn't forecast Koepka being close to contending for another major win this week, making him one to avoid with U.S. Open bets.

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The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+550) who, with a victory, would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. His best finish at this major was a runner-up in 2022, as he's placed in the top 7 in four of his last five U.S. Open starts. Scheffler has also finished in the top 7 in six of his last seven major tournaments but hasn't been his typical dominant self in 2026.

After having at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, Scheffler has just one victory this year. Still though, he's been in contention throughout the year as half of his 12 events have resulted in top-3 finishes. Scheffler has never competed at Shinnecock before, and the last time he played a course for the first time at a major, he placed 14th at this year's PGA Championship.

The model has also examined McIlroy's (+1200) chances of becoming a two-time U.S. Open champion, after winning the event 15 years ago in 2011. That was the Irishman's first major win, while his last missed cut at the U.S. Open came when Shinnecock last hosted in 2018. Historically, this has been McIlroy's weakest major, with his most missed cuts (5) and tied for his fewest top 5s (4).

While McIlroy ranks in the top 5 in SG: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, he is just 125th in driving accuracy percentage. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but they are still challenging due to the thick 5-inch rough that surrounds them. How McIlroy is able to navigate those fairways with his driving not as precise this year will go a long way in deciding if the Masters winner picks up his second major win of the year.  See the full U.S. Open projections from the model here .

How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one who is going off at over 30-1.  You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters .

2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here .

Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +1200 Jon Rahm +1300 Tommy Fleetwood +2000 Xander Schauffele +2000 Ludvig Åberg +2200 Bryson DeChambeau +2200 Cameron Young +2200 Brooks Koepka +2500 Matt Fitzpatrick +2700 Collin Morikawa +3500 Sam Burns +3500 Justin Rose +4000 Tyrrell Hatton +4000 Russell Henley +4000 Wyndham Clark +4000 Justin Thomas +4000 Si Woo Kim +4500 Chris Gotterup +5000 Viktor Hovland +5000 Patrick Cantlay +5500 Patrick Reed+5500 Hideki Matsuyama +5500 Robert MacIntyre +6000 Shane Lowry +6000 Jordan Spieth +6500 J.J. Spaun +6500 Joaquin Niemann +7000 Min Woo Lee +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +10000 Akshay Bhatia +10000 Aaron Rai +10000 Harris English +10000 Alex Fitzpatrick +10000 Maverick McNealy +10000 Cameron Smith +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Ryan Gerard +10000 Nicolai Højgaard +10000 Adam Scott +10000 Jackson Koivun +10000 Kristoffer Reitan +10000 Sepp Straka +10000 Kurt Kitayama +10000 Alex Noren +10000

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-top-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-brooks-koepka-predictions/)._