Aaron Judge Injury: Five Key Questions on His Return and Yankees' Strategy

Late Thursday evening, the New York Yankees delivered news that is both good and bad (but mostly bad). Captain Aaron Judge has a stress fracture in his upper right rib and will rest at least 4-6 weeks . That's the bad news. The good news is that, after consulting with a vascular specialist, more serious ailments like thoracic outlet syndrome were ruled out. It's just -- "just" -- a stress fracture. It's bad news that the Yankees are thankful was not worse.

"Aaron obviously means a lot to us," Yankees ace Gerrit Cole said about Judge's injury (via MLB.com ). "He just plays great baseball all the time and brings great energy. It's tough when guys get hurt, but unfortunately, it's part of the game. As a team, you've got to figure out how to step up in those situations, and so that's what we'll do."

Two months into 2026, Judge was not having a typical Judge season, though he was still among the game's best players. He's in the top 20 among qualified hitters with a 152 OPS+, meaning his offensive output was 52% better than the average hitter after adjusting for ballpark and other factors. He's also top 30 with 2.2 WAR despite not playing this week. It goes without saying that losing him is an enormous blow to a Yankees team that is otherwise light on right-handed power.

Aaron Judge NYY • RF • #99

BA 0.248 R 43 HR 17 RBI 38 SB 5 View Profile

Judge will join Jasson Domínguez (shoulder), Max Fried (elbow), and Giancarlo Stanton (calf) on the injured list. The Yankees did welcome Cole and Carlos Rodón back from their elbow surgeries recently, but the Yankees have not been the whole and fully actualized version of themselves at any point in the last two years, given Cole's Tommy John surgery recovery. That's baseball though. Rarely is everyone healthy at the same time.

After a few days of tests and consultations, the Yankees have an official diagnosis for Judge. A stress fracture is not good, but it was feared it was something much worse. Here now are the biggest questions moving forward for the Yankees and Judge following his injury.

1. When will Aaron Judge be back?

Late July seems like the best-case scenario, with mid-August more likely. The Yankees say Judge will rest 4-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, then you have to add another 2-4 weeks on top of that for baseball activities and minor-league rehab games. Judge is 34 now and 34-year-olds don't heal as quickly as 24-year-olds (I'm speaking from experience here). In all likelihood, Judge is looking at the longer end of those ranges. Six weeks to recover, four weeks to build up. Ten weeks from Friday is Aug. 14.

2. How did the injury happen?

Manager Aaron Boone said the Yankees aren't sure when exactly Judge suffered the injury. He played through discomfort for a few weeks, and when it got worse last weekend, he was sent for tests. The Yankees don't know when Judge got hurt initially, which is more common than you think. Guys played banged-up all the time, and sometimes a little something becomes a big something.

What follows is purely my speculation: Judge crashed into the Yankee Stadium wall twice in three days, making catches in right field early last month. His numbers, including under-the-hood contact quality metrics like exit velocity and hard-hit rate, began to dip soon thereafter. Here are the catches:

At the end of that series, Judge was hitting .272/.409/.648 with 14 home runs and a .696 expected slugging percentage through 35 games. After that series, Judge hit .213/.324/.371 with three homers and a .465 expected slugging percentage in 24 games before being shut down. Expected slugging percentage, or xSLG, is based on things like exit velocity and launch angle, and to be clear, a .465 xSLG is fantastic for most hitters. For Judge, it's about 250 points south of his usual output.

Again, this is purely my speculation. Judge crashed into the wall twice in quick succession and his numbers dipped right after. It might have been a slump, the kind every hitter goes through during the long season, but Judge played through discomfort for a few weeks before going for tests. It's not hard to connect the dots here. Ultimately, when and how the injury happened doesn't matter. Judge is injured and will miss significant time.

3. How can the Yankees replace him?

The Yankees played utility men José Caballero and Max Schuemann in right field this past week, though that was only a temporary fix while they waited for word on Judge. Judge will be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday and outfield prospect Spencer Jones will come up to fill the roster spot, per the YES Network . In the short-term, expect the lefty-hitting Jones to play right field against righties, and the righty-hitting Caballero/Schuemann to do so against lefties.

Looking longer term, the Yankees have three options to replace Judge, who they expect to play again this season. Let's run down the possibilities.

Stay in-house: Jones went 4 for 24 (.167) with 12 strikeouts in his brief call-up last month, but, if he performs this time around, the Yankees may just stick with him. Domínguez will begin a minor-league rehab assignment Friday and could return as soon as next weekend. He's another option and is more likely to stick than Jones based on the fact Domínguez has had MLB success and Jones hasn't. Caballero/Schuemann aren't everyday options in right field. It's really just Domínguez and Jones.

The scrap heap: Nick Castellanos and former Yankee Andrew McCutchen were recently cut loose by the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers , respectively. Neither has been effective this season, hence getting shown the door by two teams near the bottom of the league in runs scored per game. They are freely available though, and if the Yankees want a more veteran fill-in than Domínguez or Jones, they could turn to Castellanos or McCutchen (my guess is the Yankees would prefer McCutchen).

If not Castellanos or McCutchen, the Yankees could and surely will monitor the waiver wire, and see whether anyone interesting comes across. In recent weeks, outfielders like Matthew Lugo and Michael Siani , and utility guys like Andy Ibáñez , were placed on waivers. That's typically what the scrap-heap market looks like. Role players who could get hot for a few weeks, not anyone you can reasonably expect to come in and make a difference.

The trade market: The trade deadline is two months away, and nearly every team thinks they're in it thanks to the third wild-card spot. It is rare for notable trades to be made in June. The Yankees would probably love to pry Taylor Ward away from the Baltimore Orioles , but, even at 30-33, the Baltimore Orioles are a half-game out of a wild card spot with 99 games to play. They won't sell yet. Jo Adell ( Los Angeles Angels ), Mickey Moniak ( Colorado Rockies ), and Lane Thomas ( Kansas City Royals ) are other trade possibilities.

One thing to keep in mind is the Yankees need a right-handed hitting outfielder to replace Judge. They're short on righty power with Judge and Stanton injured. Jones is a lefty and Domínguez is a switch-hitter who is much better from the left side of the plate. If the Yankees go outside the organization to replace Judge, a righty bat will be the priority. That's their greatest need. It's too early in the season to expect a notable trade though. Even if the Yankees are open to a deal, finding a willing seller in June is difficult.

4. Can the Yankees win the AL East without Judge?

The Yankees enter play Friday with a 37-25 record and a +93 run differential, tops in the American League by 63 runs. They're a half-game behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East. The AL is so watered down right now that if the Yankees somehow fall out of postseason position, it will be because their problems run much deeper than Judge missing two-ish months. The Yankees should have little issue staying in a wild-card spot without their captain.

The AL East race is a different matter. The pennant-winning Toronto Blue Jays are starting to get healthy and are dangerous, and the Rays built themselves enough of a cushion the last few weeks to hang around the division race deep into the summer. The O's have won nine of their 14 games as well. With so many games to play, the AL East race remains wide open, and the fact of the matter is the Yankees are a much different team with Judge than without.

Here are the numbers with and without Judge since 2017 (via the YES Network ):

Judge on the bench

The Yankees, as you'd expect, have not been the same without Aaron Judge since he became a full-time player in 2017.

with Judge without Judge

Winning percentage

.590 (96-win pace)

.544 (88-win pace)

Runs scored per game

5.07

4.86

Home runs per game

1.57

1.49

Runs allowed per game

4.03

4.60

It's funny, the offense without Judge is obviously not as potent, but the biggest difference is runs allowed per game. Judge is a good defender in right field, but losing his defense alone doesn't explain an additional half-a-run allowed per game. That's a good reminder that one player, no matter how good, helps only so much in baseball. For sure though, losing Judge for two months is a major blow and decreases New York's odds of winning the AL East and potentially a Wild Card Series bye.

To answer the question: Yes, the Yankees can still win the AL East even with Judge set to miss two months or so. It will be much more difficult now, though. Judge has his own gravity. There are nights (a lot of nights) in which the difference in the game is the Yankees have Judge, the other team doesn't, and that's that. Judge is irreplaceable, and the element of "Judge will change this game with one swing" is gone for a few weeks. It will cost the Yankees games in the standings, for sure.

Truth be told, the Yankees are a pitching-first team. They're fourth in ERA (3.28) and first in expected ERA (3.37), which reflects the pitching staff's ability to limit hard contact. The bullpen can be shaky at times, no doubt, but the rotation is excellent even with Fried sidelined. The pitching is plenty good enough to carry the Yankees to the top of the AL East while Judge is sidelined. They just have a smaller margin of error on offense now. Winning the division is doable, just more challenging.

5. What about Judge's upcoming milestones?

Judge is approaching several significant career milestones and those chases either get put on hold now, or are over completely. For one, Judge this season was looking to join Barry Bonds (2001-04) and Shohei Ohtani (2023-25) as the only players to win three straight MVPs. Also, he would have joined Bonds (seven) and Ohtani (four) as the only players with at least four MVPs. Judge won the 2022, 2024, and 2025 AL MVP awards. The injury takes him out of the 2026 AL MVP race.

Here are a few other significant upcoming milestones that are impacted by Judge's injury:

400 home runs: Judge is 15 home runs away from becoming the 60th member of the 400-home run club. It is a near certainty he will reach 400 career homers in the fewest games ever. That record currently belongs to Mark McGwire, who hit his 400th home run in his 1,412th game. Judge has played 1,204 games. Unless the injury and/or age sap Judge's power immensely, he needs to hit 15 home runs in his next 208 games to break McGwire's record. That record will fall barring something unforeseen.

It's possible Judge could still reach 400 home runs this season. If he returns in mid-August, that will give him 35 games or so to hit those 15 homers. Judge has hit as many as 19 homers in a 35-game span since 2022. The injury might have pushed Judge's 400th career home run back to next season, but he'll get there soon enough. It will also cut into his pursuit of 500 homers. He's still in his prime right now. Losing two or so prime months will cut into his career home run total disproportionately.

50-homer season: Only four players in history have four seasons w

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/aaron-judge-injury-yankees-questions/)._