Big 12 Basketball Tiers: Arizona, Houston, Kansas Lead Revamped Conference

It was a weird offseason in Big 12 country as a ton of top-level, proven talent chose to leave the conference via the transfer portal.

Eight of the Big 12's top-30 scorers transferred to another rival high-major league, headlined by Kansas ' Flory Bidunga signing a monster deal with Louisville , Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic choosing desperate Kentucky , Baylor's Tounde Yessoufou heading to St. John's and Texas poaching TCU's David Punch and Colorado's Isaiah Johnson .

Proven production in the Big 12 is a bit harder to find in 2026-27, and while the league is lacking foolproof rosters at the top of the pecking order, it's clear as day that the depth of the league will be there, especially after Cincinnati and Arizona State made significant coaching hires.

Way-too-early SEC basketball tiers: Florida and Texas headline college basketball's best league Isaac Trotter

Conference tiers provide a preferable way to contextualize each roster's outlook.

- Tier 1 - Title contenders : Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins. - Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier. - Tier 3 - Tournament team : These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let's be honest: they aren't serious title threats. - Tier 4 - Bubble, even with a 76-team field : A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle. - Tier 5 - The basement : These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.

Let's dive in.

Tier 1: National title contenders

1. Arizona

2025-26 record : 36-3 overall, 16-2 in Big 12 play

Postseason : No. 1 seed. Lost in the Final Four.

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Derek Dixon (UNC transfer) - G Caleb Holt - Wing Cameron Holmes - Wing Ivan Kharchenkov - C Motiejus Krivas

Top bench options : G JJ Mandaquit , F Maksim Brnovic, F Mabil Mawut , F Ugnius Jarusevicius , C Evan Otten , F Endurance Aiyamenkhue, G Bryce James

The scoop : It's hard to see how Arizona is not an excellent defensive team. Five-star freshman Caleb Holt, sophomore wing Ivan Kharchenkov and 7-foot-2 mountain Motiejus Krivas are all elite defenders for their respective positions, and Arizona will have excellent positional size when 6-foot-4 point guard Derek Dixon and 6-foot-6 wing Cameron Holmes join that trio.

Arizona is not quite as physical or physically imposing as last year's club, but a lot of those same tenets of rebounding and rim protection, fueling a hellacious transition attack, can stay intact. Washington transfer point guard JJ Mandaquit will make sure Arizona continues to play at a breakneck pace, and he'll force-feed the big dawgs at all times.

Your bigs control your floor, which means Arizona's floor is extremely high with Krivas in the fold. There's a chance he is the Big 12 Player of the Year since he won't have to share the sugar with Koa Peat and Tobe Awaka . I like the depth options, too. Keep a close eye on Nebraska transfer Ugnius Jarusevicius. If he can buck a nasty back injury, he can help this club with physical low-post, duck-ins.

Arizona could be a bit more wobbly some nights without the steady Jaden Bradley , but Lloyd should be able to get plenty out of these young guards. Mandaquit is too high-feel to fail under this coaching staff. Dixon is the same way. Too smart and too good a shooter to fail. Toss in Holt into that mix, too. Too big, too strong, too physical to fail.

Tier 2: Top 25-caliber club

2. Houston

2025-26 record : 30-7 overall, 14-4 in Big 12 play

Postseason : No. 2 seed; lost in the Sweet 16

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Dedan Thomas Jr . ( LSU transfer) - G Mercy Miller - G Chase McCarty - F Delrecco Gillespie ( Kent State transfer) - F JoJo Tugler

Top bench options : G Corey Hadnot II , G Ikenna Alozie, F Braden East , C Arafan Diane, G Kordel Jefferson , G Bryce Jackson

The scoop : Normal programs are supposed to take a significant step back when they lose two starters from a Final Four team ( Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan ) and two first-round picks in Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac.

Houston isn't a normal program.

For such a new-look group, Houston has a wildly high floor. LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. was hand-picked by Kelvin Sampson to continue the lineage of dynamic UH point guards. Thomas, armed with a dazzling career 2.6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, is a snug fit. Thomas' sky-high feel in pick-and-rolls should make life easier for Houston's collection of unproven, off-ball guards like Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Corey Hadnot II and Ikenna Alozie. They'll get easier shots because Thomas is on the floor, and Miller has the talent to be a dynamic scoring threat. Thomas also plays so clean, which is everything for this Houston attack that covets offensive rebounding. With big man JoJo Tugler returning and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie entering the fold, Houston is poised to rack up so many second-chance points. This Houston frontcourt could be so deep. Tugler is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Gillespie is a voracious rebounder with a bit of a funky offensive game, but he makes just enough jumpers from the midrange or downtown to keep defenses honest. Mammoth freshman big man Arafan Diane isn't expected to play major minutes in Year 1, but you'll feel the big fella when he's out there. Lamar transfer Braden East was one of the best offensive rebounders from the mid-major ranks. He is a perfect fourth fiddle in this Houston frontcourt rotation.

Truth be told, Houston's incubator of player development has to pop yet again for the Coogs to be National Championship-level good. I'm not sure there's quite enough NBA talent to get there, but will you be that surprised if Houston is up 65-62 on top-seeded Duke in the Sweet 16 with 3:52 left?

3. Kansas

2025-26 record : 24-11 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 play

Postseason : No. 4 seed; lost in the Round of 32

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Taylen Kinney - G Leroy Blyden Jr . - F Tyran Stokes - F Keanu Dawes ( Utah transfer) - C Christian Reeves

Top bench options : G Kohl Rosario , C Paul Mbiya, G Dennis Parker Jr. , F Davion Adkins, G Trent Perry , G Luke Barnett

The scoop : Kansas finished with a +3 rebounding differential last season in 28 games against Quad 1 or Quad 2 competition, per CBB Analytics. That ranked just eighth in the Big 12 and lowered KU's floor dramatically.

Big guys who don't play that big shouldn't be a problem this year with this personnel. 7-foot-2 Charleston transfer Christian Reeves was the best per-minute rebounder in the CAA last year. 6-foot-9 Utah transfer Keanu Dawes was the second-best per-minute rebounder in Big 12 play. Top-rated recruit Tyran Stokes was one of the best rebounders in all of high school basketball.

Sensing a theme?

Reeves has to get his shoulder healthy, but Kansas' new-look front-line should be vacuum cleaners on the boards. When you rebound, you can compete in every game.

The mercurial Stokes will be a hot-button topic, but I'm not too concerned about his on-court impact. A 6-foot-7 burly forward who passes, dribbles, shoots, slashes, rebounds and defends will find ways to be very impactful even on nights when the jumper isn't going in. Stokes is going to be really good, but fellow five-star guard Taylen Kinney is the far bigger question mark. Objectively, Kinney had a rough showing for Team USA's U18 team this summer. Kinney's erratic decision-making — both with the shots he chooses to take and the passes he tries — has to get cleaned up, or there will be some low-lows in the well-schemed Big 12.

There's a real shot that Kansas doesn't have a true point guard on the roster. Kinney's summer showing with Team USA reiterated that he is more of a scorer than a true set-the-table point guard, and Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr. is better-suited as a secondary handler who can punish teams with his speed and shooting. The more you look at this Kansas roster, the more it's obvious that Stokes is going to have the ball in his hands as much as humanly possible. He's the trigger man for all of this.

A Hall of Fame coach who has one of the best players in the country on his roster gives Kansas plenty of high-floor outcomes, but you can poke real holes in both KU's offense and defense. Without Flory Bidunga, Kansas' switchability defensively goes from a strength to a weakness. I expect a bunch more drop coverage with Reeves at the 5, but are these smaller guards going to have enough bite defensively to pull it off? How good can this offense be with all the creation questions at point guard and with bigs who aren't passers?

Kansas is a good team, but it has some red flags in the profile that keep it off the national championship short list … for now.

4. Iowa State

2025-26 record : 29-8 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 play

Postseason : No. 2 seed; lost in the Sweet 16

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Jaquan Johnson ( Bradley transfer) - G Killyan Toure - G Jamarion Batemon - F Tre Singleton ( Northwestern transfer) - F Blake Buchanan

Top bench options : F Leon Bond III , G Ryan Prather Jr. , F Taj Manning , F Dominykas Pleta

The scoop : Iowa State doesn't have Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson or Tamin Lipsey anymore, but T.J. Otzelberger isn't in the excuse-making business. It's plain, boring analysis, but Iowa State just has a lot of good players on the roster and the defense will be the calling card.

Sophomore guard Killyan Toure is a terrific point-of-attack defender, and big man Blake Buchanan is a stud defender in his own right. Otzelberger smartly surrounded those two lynchpins with a ton of plus rangy off-ball defenders, headlined by Northern Iowa transfer Leon Bond III and Northwestern transfer Tre Singleton. Oh, and Bradley transfer Jaquan Johnson is an ideal Lipsey replacement. Johnson shot just 50% at the rim last year, but the 5-foot-11 bullyball guard adds another takeaway machine to this defense who can also drain 3s, get to the free throw line, hit pull-ups and create for others without turning it over much.

Iowa State has had four top-10 defenses under Otzelberger's watch, and this personnel looks poised to do that again. Johnson and Toure can take tough assignments on lead guards. Singleton and Buchanan are physical up front. Bond will check in to clamp any good wing. Taj Manning and Dominykas Pleta give Iowa State plenty of rock-solid frontcourt depth. The speed and length should coalesce into another defense that takes the ball away at a high clip.

But this offense hinges mightily on Jamarion Batemon and Singleton. Iowa State will miss Jefferson's creation and Momcilovic's automatic jumper, but Batemon showed flashes of brilliance offensively as a shooter and Singleton's got some Jefferson vibes as a big forward who can pass, dribble and maybe shoot.

A top-10 defense plus a top-40 offense? That sounds realistic for this personnel and would put Iowa State in the mix for a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

Tier 3: Tournament team

5. West Virginia

2025-26 record : 21-14 overall, 9-9 in Big 12 play

Postseason : Won The Crown.

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Miles Sadler - G Finley Bizjack ( Butler transfer) - G Joson Sanon (St. John's transfer) - F Seydou Traore (Utah transfer) - C Mo Sylla ( Georgia Tech transfer

Top bench options : G Martin Somerville , G Amir Jenkins , F Aliou Dioum, G Keonte Greybear, C Amadou Seini, F Javan Buchanan (if eligible, needs a waiver)

The scoop : Speed. That's the first thing you notice about this new-look West Virginia roster. Butler transfer Finley Bizj

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/big-12-conference-rankings-arizona-houston-kansas/)._