Big Ten Basketball 2026-27: Michigan, Illinois, MSU Poised for Strong Seasons

The 2026 college basketball transfer portal is all but picked clean, the stay-or-go NBA Draft decisions have been made and now one question remains: Who is going to be good?

On paper, the Big Ten seems on the precipice of taking a slight step down after taking the mantle as the best league in college basketball last season. Michigan's entire fearsome frontcourt is off to the NBA , but the number of excellent guards that are also exiting stage left is mind-boggling. Purdue's Braden Smith , UCLA's Donovan Dent , Illinois ' Keaton Wagler , Wisconsin's Nick Boyd and John Blackwell , Iowa's Bennett Stirtz , etc. are all gone, either to the NBA or other leagues. It's a big-boy list.

The path is clear for new faces, new stars and a heated race.

Consider this a first glimpse at strengths, weaknesses and the personnel for every team in the Big Ten. Before we know it, players will be back on campus, and summer workouts will be starting. These conference tiers provide a preferable way of contextualizing the outlook of each team.

- Tier 1 - Title contenders : Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins. - Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier. - Tier 3 - Tournament team : These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let's be honest: they aren't serious title threats. - Tier 4 - Bubble, even with a 76-team field : A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle. - Tier 5 - The basement : These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.

Let's dive in.

Tier 1: National Title contenders

1. Illinois

2025-26 record : 28-9, 15-5 in Big Ten play.

Postseason : Lost in the Final Four to UConn .

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Stefan Vaaks ( Providence transfer) - G Quentin Coleman - Wing Andrej Stojakovic - F David Mirkovic - C Tomi Ivisic

Top bench options : F Jake Davis , C Zvonimir Ivisic , G Lucas Morillo, G Ethan Brown , F Zavier Zens, F Jason Jakstys

The scoop : Illinois has one of the highest floors in the Big Ten because its strengths travel every night. The Illini will be one of the biggest teams in the Big Ten, featuring a top-eight rotation that is littered with seven guys who are 6-foot-6 or taller. It will be the best-shooting frontcourt in the Big Ten, which pulls shot-blockers away from the paint. It will also be one of the elite rebounding squads.

Size, shooting and rebounding give you a chance to win every night, and there's beauty in balance. Illinois' entire starting 5 is capable of getting 15-to-18 points, based on the matchup.

Illinois may not have a lottery pick guard on the roster like Keaton Wagler, but it still has arguably the best personnel in the league. High-feel forward David Mirkovic is primed to dominate after a Big Ten Freshman of the Year-worthy campaign that was overshadowed by Wagler's excellence. The 6-foot-9 polar bear is a quote machine, and his game backs it all up as a big playmaker who can shoot, drive, rebound and pass. Andrej Stojakovic is back to find the weakest defender and put 'em in a blender again. Sharpshooting wing Jake Davis and the center platoon of Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic stuck around, too. Xavier's Jovan Milicevic was the only high-major center to make more 3s than Tomi Ivisic last year (50).

The guard play will determine whether Illinois is just a good team or a great team again. Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks is going to be the Money Man. The 6-foot-7 guard was one of the best offensive players in the portal, combining expert pull-up shooting with shrewd feel as a playmaker. Some of the shot selection was iffy, and the defense was an abomination at times, but Illinois can clean up those fixable things. If Vaaks can play clean basketball, Illinois will be in a position to win this league, and five-star freshman guard Quentin Coleman should be an overqualified fourth or fifth option from the jump.

There's a chance Illinois isn't quite as good as last year on either end, but the floor is just so ridiculously high because of the rebounding and the balance. It will just have nights where Keaton Wagler's knack for basically depositing every single shot will be missed.

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2. Michigan

2025-26 record : 37-3, 19-1 in Big Ten play

Postseason : No. 1 seed; National Champions (as if you could forget)

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Elliot Cadeau - G Trey McKenney - G Brandon McCoy - F JP Estrella ( Tennessee transfer) - C Moustapha Thiam ( Cincinnati transfer)

Top bench options : F Quinn Costello, F Jalen Reed (recovering from torn Achilles), F Oscar Goodman , G Joseph Hartman, G LJ Cason (recovering from torn ACL, redshirt candidate), Wing Lincoln Cosby (recovering from torn ACL, redshirt candidate), G Ricky Liburd , G Malachi Brown

The scoop : Dusty May's new starting 5 can go toe-to-toe with anybody. Point guard Elliot Cadeau is back to set the table with wizardly dimes and an infectious snarl. The Trey McKenney breakout train has left the station. The big-bodied sophomore guard is a safe bet to lead this club in scoring. Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy will bring the clamps defensively from the jump, and Michigan's new-look front-line has some serious potential. 6-foot-11 forward JP Estrella is skilled, tough and plays so hard. Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam is all of 7-foot-2 with the coveted intersection of 3s and shot-swatting.  That stuff is cool, but Thiam can be a pro if the processing ticks up and he simplifies his game.

Cadeua-McKneney-McCoy-Estrella-Thiam should be one of the best lineups in the Big Ten, and May has more skilled size waiting to check in off the bench in Quinn Costello (6-foot-10 shooter) and Reed (a 6-foot-10 forward who can punish mismatches when his body doesn't betray him as it has in each of the past two seasons).

Michigan has three legitimately nasty point-of-attack defenders and real rim protection in Thiam, so the defense should be very good. I think you'll see this group continue to play in transition as much as it can, but this roster is clearly not quite as vicious on paper as a year ago. There's no game-wrecker like Yaxel Lendeborg or Aday Mara , who can bend the floor and create leverage. Plus, there are real questions about the guard depth while spark-plug sixth man LJ Cason heals up from a February ACL tear.

This cutting-edge coaching staff deserves the benefit of the doubt that it will squeeze every ounce out of this group. That's why Michigan is a deserved Tier 1 inclusion, but losing Juke Harris to Tennessee and Morez Johnson to the NBA Draft lowers the confidence level a smidge. That said, if you pick Michigan to win this league even after losing three potential lottery picks, nobody will argue with you.

3. Michigan State

2025-26 record : 27-8, 15-5 in Big Ten play

Postseason : No. 3 seed; lost in the Sweet 16

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Jeremy Fears Jr . - G Jordan Scott - Wing Coen Carr - F Cam Ward - C Anton Bonke

Top bench options : G Kur Teng , F Kaleb Glenn , G Jasiah Jervis, G Carlos Medlock Jr., C Ethan Taylor, F Jesse McCulloch , G/F Julius Avent

The scoop : Michigan State could very well have the best backcourt in the Big Ten. Jeremy Fears Jr.? Dog. Jordan Scott? Dog. Freshman Carlos Medlock Jr. will put defenders in a blender, and you can add top-35 freshman Jasiah Jervis next to 38% 3-point shooter Kur Teng, high-flyer Coen Carr, high-energy forward Cam Ward and now-healthy, 3-and-D wing Kaleb Glenn to give Tom Izzo a potpourri of off-ball options who do something a little bit different.

Fears is the skeleton key to all of it. The potential preseason Big Ten Player of the Year could lead the nation in assists again, although finding his new go-to pick-and-roll partner may be the biggest X-Factor for the Spartans.

Michigan State will walk into summer practices with at least 11 players who have a legit chance for minutes, but all eyes are on the frontcourt remodel. MSU will really miss Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper , who were cogs of the Spartans' top-15 defense and knew the scheme front and back after four years in the system. Can Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke get up to speed? He won't be as good as Cooper defensively or Kohler offensively, but he has to be serviceable. The 7-foot-2, 260-pound senior is a load on the glass as you'd expect, but there will be some iffy moments. For a 7-2 monster, Bonke sure gets blocked a lot when he's not Hulk-smashing dunks. His heavy feet can make him rickety defensively, but he's enormous, and big people move little people in hoops. If that doesn't work, Michigan State may have to give highly-rated freshman big man Ethan Taylor a bit more burn. His tools are obvious but the production is still very much a work in progress. Bonke has to be solid, so Taylor can develop in peace.

A brand-new center platoon could lead to some volatility for the Spartans. This defense may not be quite as stout as it was a year ago, but there's optimism this offense could be a little better now that Fears isn't the only guard who can dribble (I wish I was joking). MSU will rebound. It will tear it up in transition, per usual. It has more shooting this year. It has real depth to withstand injuries. It has more creators, which should help the turnover rate tick down.

Izzo's bet on internal development will work, but getting outbid on some of the more high-upside, transfer bigs it chased could be what holds MSU back from reaching the peak of its powers.

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Tier 2: Top 25-caliber club

4. USC

2025-26 record : 18-14, 7-13 in Big Ten play

Postseason : None.

Projected 2026-27 starting lineup

- G Rodney Rice - G KJ Lewis ( Georgetown transfer) - G Alijah Arenas - F Jacob Cofie - C Eric Reibe (UConn transfer)

Top bench options : F Christian Collins, C Adonis Ratliff, G Jalen Cox , C Darius Ratliff, G Jadis Jones , G Aaron Hunkin-Claytor , F Joshua Hughes

The scoop : It's time for USC to make a jump. From a pure talent standpoint, this is one of the best rosters in the Big Ten. Eric Musselman wants to find the mismatch and destroy it. Rodney Rice and former five-star scorer Alijah Arenas can do that, but Rice's recovery from a painful shoulder injury will be critical to monitor. He's All-Big Ten good if he's back to being Rodney Rice again. Pass, dribble, shoot, cut and defend forward Jacob Cofie is also back after a dalliance with the NBA, and USC signed the No. 7-rated recruiting class, headlined by five-star forward Christian Collins and the Ratliff twins (Adonis and Darius).

USC also filled critical holes in the portal. Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis will add transition punch, creation and ravenous defense. Colgate transfer Jalen Cox is a heck of a backup point guard, who can shift Rice into a scoring 2-guard, if needed. UConn transfer Eric Reibe has a ton of potential as a 7-footer who can score inside and step out for a pick-and-pop trey.

A little portal, a little retention and a little high school recruiting is the recipe to win big, and USC hit all three notes.

You can see the vision in this Trojan group, which overwhelms opponents with size, depth and raw talent. It just needs to simmer.

I'd be stunned if USC doesn't easily make the NCAA Tournament, assuming it stays mostly healthy. And once you get into do-or-die games, USC has the size and guard play to be

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/big-ten-basketball-rankings-tiers/)._