Brewers vs. Cardinals: MLB Picks and Odds as Kyle Harrison Dominates

Some organizations can turn struggling starting pitchers into good ones much better than others in MLB , and the Milwaukee Brewers are atop that list. They stole Kyle Harrison via trade from Boston this offseason, and the lefty takes the mound tonight vs. the visiting Cardinals as a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate, even if the sportsbooks don't really think so yet.

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Cardinals vs. Brewers single-game parlay

- Milwaukee Money Line - Alt Under 10.5

BetRivers SGP: -111

As a Cubs fan, it infuriates me annually how the Brewers can turn these so-so guys into front-line starters for pennies on the dollar. Last year, former Pirates bust Quinn Priester was a huge part of the Brewers winning the NL Central as he finished 13-3  with a 3.32 ERA in 157.1 innings. Priester hasn't pitched in the majors this season as he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome. And the Brewers traded ace Freddy Peralta in the offseason to the Mets .

No matter. Harrison has emerged as one of the best lefties on the Senior Circuit. The 24-year-old was acquired during spring training from Boston in a six-player trade in which the Brewers also got infielder David Hamilton and pitching prospect Shane Drohan . They sent out infielders Caleb Durbin , Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick. The Red Sox originally got Harrison in the Rafael Devers trade from the Giants . He ended up pitching in just three games for Boston.

Without question the Brewers have won that deal so far, with Harrison at 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 59 strikeouts in nine starts spanning 45.2 innings. His strikeout rate is a career-high 32.2% and he's the lone starting pitcher in the National League with an ERA below 1.85 and at least a 30% strikeout rate. The major changes he has made? Moving to the first base side of the rubber while raising his arm angle.

The only pitcher with a lower ERA than Harrison through his first nine starts with the Brewers is Hall of Famer CC Sabathia , who had a 1.60 ERA with five complete games and two shutouts in 2008 in his first nine with the club. Harrison has been one of the more profitable starters in the majors, as if you had wagered $100 on the Brewers to win each of those nine, you would be up $433. They have won each of his past six starts.

Harrison, who entered the 2026 season with just 42 games of big-league experience, has not allowed a run over his past two against the Cubs and Padres , with only seven hits allowed and one walk to 18 strikeouts in 12 innings. He's still a +4500 longer shot for the NL Cy Young Award, even though the Brewers are yet again a first-place team.

Tuesday will be Harrison's first career start vs. the Cardinals, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at only 4.8 innings, 5.5 strikeouts, 4.6 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs. His Over/Under outs recorded at DraftKings is 17.5 and Harrison is +118 to personally win.

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Milwaukee is proof that you don't have to win solely with the long ball in modern-day MLB. The Brewers have hit an MLB-low 34 homers but allowed an MLB-low 37. In Monday's 5-1 win over St. Louis, former Cardinal Willson Contreras extended his hitting streak to nine games and is up to .304 on the year. He is batting .395 in this current run.

St. Louis has been a huge surprise and is contending in the NL Central as well – that division might be a five-team race all summer, with no teams under .500 currently. One key to the Cards' success has been righty Michael McGreevy (3-3, 2.40 ERA, +$227).

That ERA is two runs better than his 2025 number in 17 appearances (16 starts), so this might not be sustainable. In fact, many metrics already are saying the 25-year-old has been a bit of a fluke, as his expected ERA (xERA) is 5.83. That's bottom 10% in the majors. His expected opposing batting average (xBA) of .296 is bottom 5% in MLB.

McGreevy has never faced the Brewers. The model has him at 5.9 innings, 3.5 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 3.4 earned runs. He's +283 to get the win.

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I see no reason to get off the Harrison gravy train yet, especially with the Cardinals having dropped four of five. The Brewers are 13-4 in their last 17 games. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/cardinals-vs-brewers-tuesday-mlb-picks-kyle-harrison-has-been-one-of-majors-most-profitable-pitchers/)._