Champions League: Expert Jon Eimer's Best Bets for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid odds, prediction: Expert's best bets for Champions League match

SportsLine soccer expert Jon Eimer is revealing his best bets for the Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Champions League semifinal decider on Tuesday

By James Holliman

May 4, 2026 at 1:29 pm ET • 3 min read

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English Premier League leader Arsenal aim to reach the final of the UEFA Champions League when they host Atletico Madrid of La Liga on Tuesday. Arsenal are in a fierce battle with Manchester City in the EPL, as they hold a six-point lead but have played two more games. Atletico are fourth in the Spanish La Liga table, 10 points clear of fifth place, so they should be back in the top European competition next season. The Gunners managed a 1-1 draw on the road at Metropolitano Stadium last week and now will look to finish it on their home turf at Emirates Stadium. The winner on aggregate will face the team the prevails in Wednesday's Bayern Munich vs. PSG second leg in the UEFA Champions League final on May 30 in Budapest, Hungary.

Kickoff from London is set for 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 5. You can see every Champions League match live on Paramount+ . Arsenal are -155 home favorites (wager $155 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line, while Atleti are +425 underdogs (wager $100 to win $425) in the latest Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The draw is priced at +300 and the Over/Under for total match goals is set at 2.5 (Over -110, Under -115).

In soccer  money line betting , a draw pays out if there's no winner after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and prop betting and parlay betting are also available. You can see the Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid forecast from the SportsLine Projection Model here , but before you make your wagers, you have to see what SportsLine soccer expert Jon Eimer is betting on this game.

Eimer finished 2023 as SportsLine's No. 1 soccer expert, posting a 248-234-12 record (+25.93 units) on SportsLine article picks. Eimer has been red-hot in 2025-26, posting a profit in multiple leagues, including the Premier League, Champions League, La Liga and more. Anyone following his  soccer betting  picks could have seen huge returns at  top sportsbooks  and on betting apps .

Here are Eimer's best bets and analysis for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, May 5.

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid best bets

- Arsenal Over 1.5 Team Total -125 (1 unit) - Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist +110 (1 unit )

It's too late for Atletico Madrid

The first leg saw both teams level after a cagey and somewhat bizarre 1-1 draw. Both teams scored on penalty kicks, and both the penalties called and reversed came under scrutiny from fans and analysts alike. The use of VAR was heavily criticized, and that could lead to the refs being wary of making some calls in this second leg.

With that being said, Atletico Madrid missed their chance to make something big happen in the first leg. Atleti should have left the Metropolitano with an aggregate lead but didn't. They had 16 shots and six corners and had an xG of over 2.2.

They desperately needed to capitalize at home, because they know how tough the second leg at Emirates is going to be. Atletico missed too many big chances to go ahead, and I don't believe their away form will be enough to stop Arsenal from advancing, especially after the Gunners found some confidence over the weekend domestically.

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Arsenal didn't rest, and that might be a good thing

While Atletico were able to rest their players in their weekend La Liga fixture to prep for this game, Arsenal didn't have the same chance, as they are still in a title race. Arsenal put out their best starting XI against Fulham over the weekend, and while many think that extra play might hurt them, I think it might actually help.

The weekend fixture against Fulham allowed Bukayo Saka to get in some much-needed playing time following his return from injury, and he scored and assisted in the first half.

Also, striker Victor Gyokeres had a brace in the match, giving the Swedish star some needed confidence going into this game. While the team with shorter rest normally has an advantage, I think the weekend fixture will help Arsenal's confidence greatly, as they have a chance to qualify for the UCL final.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/arsenal-vs-atletico-madrid-odds-prediction-experts-best-bets-for-champions-league-match/)._