Eight NFL Players Facing Make-or-Break 2026 Season

Pressure constantly looms over the NFL . Every player, coach, front office member and, who knows, maybe even the cafeteria lady feels it. It can push some toward greatness, but it can also cause others to combust, which is what makes the league so fascinating. Between building a legacy and earning millions of dollars, players either crumble under that pressure or rise to the occasion.

Because of the massive stakes, patience runs thin throughout the league. That can lead teams to cut ties with players they once viewed as franchise cornerstones before ultimately realizing they weren't up for the task. That's the avenue we'll be strolling down here.

In this space, we'll highlight a handful of players entering a sort of make-or-break season in 2026. Either they'll prove to be foundational pieces for their organization or reveal they're not meant for stardom.

C.J. Stroud HOU • QB • #7

Season: 4th | Drafted: No. 2 (2023) View Profile

The shine has certainly come off C.J. Stroud in recent years. After his stellar rookie season, the Texans quarterback's production has dipped, and he seemingly hit rock bottom last postseason.

Stroud had the most combined fumbles and interceptions (10) through the first two games of a postseason in the last 35 seasons. That included four interceptions in a divisional-round loss to the Patriots , which truly shook confidence in him as a franchise quarterback.

Stroud is eligible for an extension, but one has yet to materialize, which only adds to speculation that Houston shares some of those concerns.

- Why he will bust: Stroud's numbers continue to look more like the quarterback he's been over the last two seasons (85.5 passer rating) than the one he was as a rookie (100.8 passer rating), especially with Houston set to play the seventh-toughest strength of schedule (based on projected win totals) in the NFL next season. - Why he won't: Houston built a better roster around Stroud, adding starters along the offensive line, a capable running back in David Montgomery and getting top receiver Nico Collins back healthy. Collins did not play in that four-interception divisional-round loss.

Our prediction : Won't bust

J.J. McCarthy MIN • QB • #9

Season: 3rd | Drafted: No. 10 (2024) View Profile

J.J. McCarthy is entering his third season in the NFL and very well could've already played his last meaningful down for the Minnesota Vikings after being the 10th overall pick in 2024.

The decision to go with McCarthy over Sam Darnold -- who won 14 games for the club in 2024 -- blew up in the Vikings' face. They missed the playoffs with McCarthy ranking as arguably the worst starter in the NFL, while Darnold went on to win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks .

After McCarthy ranked last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and passer rating, Minnesota brought in veteran Kyler Murray this offseason to compete for the job.

- Why he will bust : The Vikings brought in legitimate competition in Murray this offseason, and the veteran appears to have the inside track to winning the job. With Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the general manager who selected McCarthy, fired earlier this offseason, arguably McCarthy's biggest supporter is no longer in the building. - Why he won't : Murray has hardly been an ironman in recent seasons, which could give McCarthy an avenue toward becoming the Vikings' starter in 2026 and proving himself. He is only 23 and went 4-0 over his final four games last season.

Our prediction : Will bust

Brian Thomas Jr. JAC • WR • #7

Season: 3rd | Drafted: No. 23 (2024) View Profile

Brian Thomas Jr . was otherworldly during his rookie season, setting franchise rookie records in receptions (87), receiving yards (1,282) and receiving touchdowns (10) in 2024.

However, the first-rounder out of LSU endured a sophomore slump in 2025, with his numbers dipping across the board. Moreover, Jaguars receivers Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers seemingly leapfrogged him for targets. That's not even mentioning Travis Hunter's role in the passing game.

Thomas enters 2026 set to either re-establish himself as a superstar wideout or reveal that 2024 was a flash in the pan.

- Why he will bust : There may be too many mouths to feed for Thomas to fully break back out. Between Washington, Meyers and Hunter, the targets may not be there for him to reemerge. - Why he won't : Thomas is simply too talented. He's already been impressing at minicamp, and while the sophomore numbers weren't great, working in his second year within Liam Coen's offense should give him a better foundation.

Our prediction : Won't bust

Myles Murphy CIN • DE • #99

Season: 4th | Drafted: No. 28 (2023) View Profile

The Bengals selected Myles Murphy with the 28th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Clemson, and it's been a slow build for the pass rusher.

Through the first two years of his career, Murphy didn't start a single game and logged just three sacks in 30 games. However, he began to show flashes in his third season in 2025. He started 10 of 17 games and recorded a career-high 5.5 sacks.

Cincinnati did not pick up his fifth-year option, meaning he is entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2026 and is set to become a free agent next offseason.

- Why he will bust: The production hasn't been there for most of his career, and he may get lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati's revamped defensive line. While the Bengals lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency, they added Boye Mafe and drafted Cashius Howell in the second round. Pair those two with 2025 first-round pass rusher Shemar Stewart , and Murphy could be jockeying for snaps. - Why he won't: Murphy showed the Bengals he can produce when given a starting role. Since adopting a full-time starting role in Week 9, he tallied four sacks and 37 tackles over nine games.

Our prediction : Won't bust

Malik Willis MIA • QB • #2

Season: 5th | Drafted: No. 86 (2022) View Profile

Malik Willis is one of the more fascinating players to monitor entering the 2026 season.

On one hand, he was great in spot starts for the Packers and is now signed on to be the Dolphins ' starter, following head coach Jeff Hafley and GM Jon-Eric Sullivan from Green Bay.

On the other hand, the Dolphins play one of the toughest schedules in the NFL next season and don't have a particularly competitive roster.

- Why he will bust : If the Dolphins are bad in 2026, they'll own a high first-round pick in a 2027 NFL Draft loaded with high-caliber quarterback prospects. Even after signing a three-year, $67.5 million contract in March, Willis could see Miami move on from him a year from now, even if it isn't entirely his fault. - Why he won't : Over the last two seasons as Green Bay's starter, Willis went 2-1, completed 80% of his passes and posted a 132.4 passer rating. During that span, he ranked first in yards per attempt (11.3) and yards per rush (8.3). If he comes close to those numbers over a full season, it'd be difficult for Miami to replace him regardless of where it's picking..

Our prediction : Will bust

Keon Coleman BUF • WR

Season: 3rd | Drafted: No. 33 (2024) View Profile

When the Bills selected Keon Coleman in the second round (No. 33 overall) of the 2024 NFL Draft, the hope was that he'd blossom into Josh Allen's top target, replacing the likes of Stefon Diggs . That has yet to materialize, and Buffalo's Super Bowl hopes have struggled because of it.

After logging 556 yards and averaging 19.2 yards per catch as a rookie, Coleman's numbers dropped in Year 2. To make matters worse, following the firing of Sean McDermott, owner Terry Pegula effectively blamed the coaching staff for the selection instead of GM Brandon Beane.

While that initially felt like the final nail in Coleman's coffin in Buffalo, he remains with the team entering what is almost certainly a make-or-break campaign.

- Why he will bust: Buffalo added DJ Moore to the receiver room after a trade with the Chicago Bears . That eliminates the idea of Coleman developing into Allen's top option and could eat into his snap count, especially with Josh Palmer and Khalil Shakir also in the room. - Why he won't: Coleman may not be the No. 1 option, but that may actually help him. With Moore handling top pass-catching duties, Coleman can settle into a No. 2 role that may better suit him at this stage of his career. His familiarity with Joe Brady's offense should help as well.

Our prediction : Will bust

Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI • WR • #18

Season: 3rd | Drafted: No. 4 (2024) View Profile

Marvin Harrison Jr . was viewed as a generational prospect when the Cardinals selected him with the No. 4 overall pick in 2024. So far, the Ohio State product has yet to translate that into NFL success.

He totaled just 885 yards as a rookie and then struggled mightily in Year 2, logging 608 yards in 12 games while battling injuries.

While Arizona's quarterback situation hasn't helped Harrison, fellow wideout Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride have still put up big numbers, which doesn't reflect particularly well on his development.

- Why he will bust: On top of other targets leapfrogging him, Harrison may not be fully healthy. He noted earlier this month that he's still working his way back to 100% after dealing with appendicitis, two heel injuries and a concussion last year. If he remains banged up, it'll be even harder for things to finally click. - Why he won't: The talent is there for Harrison to become a star receiver. Maybe all it takes is a new head coach like Mike LaFleur to help settle things down.

Our prediction : Will bust

Michael Penix Jr. ATL • QB • #9

Season: 3rd | Drafted: No. 8 (2024) View Profile

Michael Penix Jr . is in a tough spot this summer. While he was drafted to be the franchise cornerstone following Atlanta's stunning selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, things have gone downhill.

The third-year quarterback struggled when he was on the field and is now set to battle Tua Tagovailoa for the starting job while rehabbing a torn ACL.

The Falcons have an entirely new leadership group with Matt Ryan named president of football, Ian Cunningham hired as GM and Kevin Stefanski brought in as head coach. None of them are tied to making the Penix pick work, which creates an even tougher road for him to beat out Tagovailoa.

- Why he will bust: Penix is 4-8 as a starter and has completed just 59.6% of his career passes. Even without considering the injury, Tagovailoa is a far more proven starter and will likely beat him out for the job this summer. - Why he won't: For all the struggles he's faced on the field and with injuries, Penix still offers more upside than Tagovailoa. With a new coaching staff in place and more weapons at his disposal, there's still an avenue for him to become a productive starter.

Our prediction : Will bust

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-biggest-bust-candidates-2026/)._