ESPN Experts Make Final World Cup Predictions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has arrived! Four years after Argentina 's triumph over France in Qatar, the latest edition of the world's biggest sporting event kicks off with Mexico vs. South Africa on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, the first of 104 games over the next several weeks.

That means it's time for ESPN's writers from around the globe to make their picks on everything from silverware and most entertaining teams to which host nation is most likely to advance the furthest: the United States , Mexico or Canada .

Here's what the 19 experts we asked think will happen, starting with the most important question: Who will lift the trophy on July 19?

It's clear who our writers view as the favorites: Spain and France. The European powerhouses earned 16 out of 19 votes for winner, and Spain was the only country that appeared on every ballot.

Interestingly, though seven writers expect Argentina to follow up their 2022 World Cup victory with another deep run in 2026, not a single one picked them to actually repeat. Can Lionel Messi & Co. defy their expectations? Their bid to go back-to-back begins Tuesday against Algeria .

Is there anything more certain than Spain's Lamine Yamal being named best young player of the tournament? According to our writers, probably not. Thirteen out of 19 picked the Barcelona star for the award, and five even expect him to go home with the Golden Ball for best player, period.

And out of a collection of the world's most clinical finishers, one player emerged on top: France's Kylian Mbappé , whom seven selected as the Golden Boot winner (awarded to the top goal scorer), and three picked him for the Golden Ball.

Lizzy Becherano: Japan . There's something about Japan's attack-minded style of play, yet conservative backline of five, that makes them an interesting team.

Bill Connelly: Colombia . They have a nice set of veterans, even on defense, and players such as Luis Díaz assure that they aren't overly reliant on James Rodríguez .

Rob Dawson: Norway . Erling Haaland is the best goal scorer in the world, and that will take Stale Solbakken's team a long way in their first World Cup since 1998.

Tom Hamilton: Ecuador . Packed with talent, they're going to be the surprise package.

Cesar Hernandez: Japan. There's a lot to like about their group of players, and it wouldn't shock me if they made a run to at least the quarterfinal stage --- or perhaps further.

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Alex Kirkland: Ecuador have some top players, such as Moisés Caicedo , Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié , and I think, based on qualifying, that they're the most underrated South American team. I wouldn't be surprised if they made the quarterfinals.

Julien Laurens: Japan . I loved them four years ago, and they are even stronger now than they were in Qatar. They have a talented squad (even without winger Kaoru Mitoma ), with experience and a style of play full of energy against which is so difficult to play.

Beth Lindop: I think Norway might do very well. It's a bit of a golden generation for them and, with Haaland up front, you can't write them off.

Gab Marcotti: Ecuador are stacked with defensive talent. They can grind down opponents come the knockout phase And at the other end, if winger Alan Minda is feeling it and striker Enner Valencia turns back the clock ... who knows?

Mark Ogden: Portugal . An underdog in the sense that they have never won a World Cup and aren't widely tipped to do so, but just look at their squad: Bruno Fernandes , Nuno Mendes , João Neves , Bernardo Silva , Pedro Neto and an old guy called Cristiano Ronaldo . Portugal can beat any team if they show up.

Connor O'Halloran: Senegal . This World Cup is a wide-open field, and it wouldn't shock if they followed in Morocco 's footsteps from four years ago and made a deep run.

James Olley: Mexico . Talk about the conditions is inescapable, and the altitude advantage could be significant for the co-hosts.

Becherano: Netherlands have a great group of players, but manager Ronald Koeman might be the team's downfall.

Connelly: Uruguay . They had a frustrating 2025, they haven't played many warmup matches this year, and though it will take a lot to miss the knockouts with third-place teams getting in, drawing with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia and losing to Spain isn't out of the question.

Dawson: Given the expanded tournament, it will take a lot for one of the more experienced nations to finish bottom of their group and go out. Netherlands should go through, but drawn in a group with Sweden , Japan and Tunisia , they're one to watch.

Hamilton: Paraguay . They're in a tough group with four teams who will all fancy their chances of taking points off one another.

Hernandez: Senegal. Things won't be easy when facing France and Haaland's Norway. An unfavorable goal differential could keep them out of the running.

Kirkland: Egypt . Given the format, surprises will be few. But the semifinalists at the last Africa Cup of Nations might just count.

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Laurens: Sweden . I don't rate manager Graham Potter, striker Alexander Isak is not properly fit, they qualified through the back door after zero wins in qualifiers and they have a tough group (Tunisia, Japan, Netherlands).

Lindop: Ultimately the tournament is so big that I can't envision many shocks. Group F is one to watch as Netherlands are probably the favorites to qualify as group winners, but there could be an upset in there.

Marcotti: Uruguay . I'm not sure Marcelo Bielsa is suited for this group of players.

Ogden: The United States. When Türkiye won their World Cup playoff against Kosovo in March, it was bad news for the U.S. Turkiye will be the best team in Group D by some distance, so it heaps the pressure on Mauricio Pochettino's team to beat Paraguay and Australia . But Pochettino has failed to create a feel-good factor and the U.S. team has done nothing in the past two years to suggest it will suddenly come good now.

O'Halloran: The United States. It would be a big shock, but none of their games are surefire wins and they'll be under pressure as hosts.

Olley: It would be a catastrophe in this format if the leading sides failed. Maybe Australia , given they got to the round of 16 four years ago and only narrowly lost to the eventual winners, Argentina.

Becherano: Spain . It's hard not to watch a team with Yamal, Marc Cucurella , Gavi , Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres and not be entertained.

Connelly: Norway . They're an underdog with epic star power, and their pre-World Cup photoshoot shows they aren't taking themselves totally seriously. And they have a chance at a big group-stage upset against France, too.

Dawson: Japan . With a 1-0 win over England at Wembley in March, they showed they are capable of big results against the favorites.

Hamilton: Curaçao . Everyone loves an underdog, and you can imagine the hype building through the group stage. As for the latter stages of the competition? Japan.

Hernandez: Uruguay. How could you not root for a side led by Marcelo Bielsa? Who knows how far they'll go, but it'll be brash and relentless.

Kirkland: If Spain play anything close to the football they played at Euro 2024, they'll be the most fun team to watch in the tournament by far.

Laurens: Colombia . Luis Díaz, Luis Suárez , James Rodríguez, Daniel Muñoz , Jhon Arias ... there is so much attacking talent in this team, and they will show it.

Lindop: I'm going to go for Brazil . They are always the country most synonymous with this tournament and, with the likes of Endrick and Vinicius Junior up front, they could be really fun to watch.

Marcotti: Japan are a well-drilled unit and fun to watch but hugely awkward to play against, and they regularly pull off shocks.

Ogden: Türkiye. Vincenzo Montella's team are stacked full of experience and exciting young talent. Arda Güler has the potential to be one of the stars of the tournament and Kenan Yildiz is a classic old-school winger who will create plenty of goal-scoring chances.

O'Halloran: Brazil . They are always blockbuster viewing at World Cups and, unlike most big teams, their group is truly competitive.

Olley: Ivory Coast . They're fun, fast and capable of upsetting the odds. They had 15 different scorers in qualifying.

Becherano: It depends which version of the United States shows up to the tournament, but the round of 16 given the talent on the roster.

Connelly: Round of 16.

Dawson: Round of 32. It should get out of Group D behind Türkiye, but a possible knockout tie against Egypt will be tough.

Hamilton: Round of 16, where it loses to Belgium , but these World Cups do strange things to form and reason.

Hernandez: Round of 16. That feels like par for the course with the current setup and the potential opposition the Americans could face.

Kirkland: I think the best the U.S. can hope for is the round of 16.

Laurens: Round of 16. The U.S. will finish second in its group behind Türkiye and beat the runner-up of Group G ( Iran or Egypt) in the last 32. Then it's Argentina, and the adventure will stop there.

Lindop: I think the U.S. make it to the round of 16, potentially even the quarterfinals.

Marcotti: Round of 16 -- Belgium's Jérémy Doku and Thibaut Courtois are its reward for winning the group ... if it wins the group.

Ogden: The group stage. Sorry guys, but this World Cup could be messy for the co-hosts.

O'Halloran: Round of 16. If the U.S. doesn't win Group D, it could easily face Argentina in the last 16.

Olley: Round of 16. The U.S. will surely make it out of the group -- and could win a knockout match if the draw falls its way -- but the suspicion is it will be found out by one of the more experienced sides.

Becherano: Mexico . One should never underestimate the power of playing a World Cup at the Estadio Azteca.

Connelly: The U.S. , because I don't think Mexico or Canada is making the round of 16.

Dawson: Mexico , although their group with South Africa, South Korea and Czechia is tougher than people seem to think.

Hamilton: I'm going for Mexico -- the Azteca Stadium factor is huge.

Hernandez: Mexico. A favorable group should provide a run into at least the quarterfinal stage for El Tri . Anything further would be a historic success for the nation.

Kirkland: Canada . I could see them making the quarters, where they'd likely be eliminated by the first top team they'd face. But that would still make them the best-performing host nation.

Laurens: I have a feeling that Mexico and Canada will both finish second in their groups, which means they will face each other in the round of 32 in Los Angeles. I think it's a tight game, but Canada will progress. Then it should be super tough for them against one of Morocco, Brazil, Japan or Netherlands, where they would lose regardless of the opposition. So I have the U.S. and Canada reaching the last 16 and Mexico the round of 32.

Lindop: I'm going to predict Mexico to get to the quarters as they have lots of exciting young talent.

Marcotti: Canada's run is actually pretty favorable relative to those of the other hosts.

Ogden: Mexico . They have a soft group alongside South Africa, South Korea and Czechia and the advantage of games in Mexico City in the first two knockout rounds if they top their group. This isn't a vintage Mexico team, but they will be formidable in the Estadio Azteca, and their opponents are likely to struggle to overcome the heat and altitude in the capital.

O'Halloran: Mexico , although so much of this relies on who each team faces in the knockouts.

Olley: Mexico . But you could make a case for the U.S. easily enough.

Becherano: All the hype before the World Cup points to Mexico's Gilberto Mora , the tournament's youngest player at 17.

Connelly: Michael Olise . He's France's best player, and I'm not sure the world realizes it yet.

Dawson: Ben Gannon-Doak . Still only 20, the excit

_Originally reported by [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49011009/world-cup-2026-bold-predictions-winners-awards-golden-ball-breakout-stars-best-matches)._