Giannis to Thunder: Pros, Cons, and Likelihood of a Blockbuster Trade

The Oklahoma City Thunder have spent the past few seasons growing into the NBA's preeminent villain. And yet, if you asked most NBA teams which championship outcome would be most beneficial to them, they'd likely have told you that the answer was another Thunder title. The San Antonio Spurs are still ascending. They're not about to do anything rash. The New York Knicks are already all in.

But a winning Thunder team is a patient Thunder team. Had they repeated as champions, they almost certainly would have brought back the bulk of their team next year,  minus some cuts to duck the second apron , and gone for the continuity approach in their three-peat.

But their loss to San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals was perhaps the only possible trigger for a more aggressive mindset. After all, those young Spurs are only going to get better. Injuries were a big part of Oklahoma City's loss, but there's no guarantee they'd be healthier next year. The Thunder are as asset-rich as any team has ever been in NBA history. The Spurs have backed them into a corner. There's no telling what they might do to push their way out of it.

We're all thinking the same thing at this point. Could the Thunder's elimination at the hands of the Spurs compel them to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo ? The Athletic's Sam Amick has reported that it's unlikely, but this is the NBA. Unlikely things happen all of the time. Such a pursuit would be enormously complicated, but not technically impossible. Let's at least explore Milwaukee's dream scenario.

How complicated would the cap mechanics get? What would an offer actually look like? And when the dust settles... should Oklahoma City really do this?

The $98 million hoop the Thunder would need to jump through

Antetokounmpo is set to make just under $58.5 million next season. Only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokić will earn more, and neither of them play for the Thunder. This poses our first immediate issue. To match Antetokounmpo's salary in a trade, the Thunder would have to aggregate multiple contracts. You're only allowed to aggregate contracts in trades if you're below the second apron.

The Thunder, with their two first-round picks accounted for, are currently projected to be $39 million above the second apron. Therefore, between the trade and other moves, the Thunder would need to send out almost $98 million worth of salary to legally acquire Antetokounmpo. That is a lot of money to shed, nearly all of which is attached to good players. The Thunder don't have bad contracts on their books.

What's next for Thunder? OKC faces a stark financial reality, and only SGA is truly indispensable Sam Quinn

Now, Oklahoma City does have some relatively straightforward ways to save money if it wants them. Lu Dort has an $18 million team option for next season. Either that option will be declined, or he is likely to be traded. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe make more than $20 million combined, and both have readymade replacements in place. Even Isaiah Hartenstein has a $28.5 million team option the Thunder could use or trade to save money, though he's become so essential to their team that they'd obviously prefer not to do so.

But the sheer financial burden of adding Antetokounmpo would be enormous. They'd be gutting their depth to do it. The Thunder are better positioned to sacrifice depth for star power than any team in the NBA, but before we consider whether or not they should, let's try to construct a trade here.

What would a trade actually look like?

There are two components to any trade that need to be considered before it becomes realistic: value and salary. The Thunder have the value component down. They can trade up to eight first-round picks if they want, including Nos. 12 and 17 in this year's draft. Good luck outbidding that, but if anyone else does, they're probably not capable of throwing young studs like Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell into the deal. The Thunder have the capacity to win almost any bidding war the trade market creates. They have the means to acquire basically any player in the NBA.

But then there's the salary component to consider. Let's work backward. The second apron is projected to be a bit more than $221.7 million for next season. The four-man combination of Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will make $181.7 million. Keeping the four of them together would give the Thunder only $40 million to allocate to their 10 remaining roster spots (assuming they'd roster only 14 players to save money).

The picks-based path to Giannis

Is that a solvable problem? Well... maybe in theory, and that's just because the Thunder have so many cheap players. We'll assume for now that Oklahoma City could keep those players and make a trade just involving picks and some of their bigger salaries, which the Bucks could probably flip for more picks. Wallace makes $7.4 million. Jared McCain makes $4.4 million. Mitchell makes $2.9 million. All three fit wonderfully alongside the stars. All three are, for now, remarkably underpaid. But just keeping that trio takes you to $25 million in room for the last seven spots.

Hartenstein, at $28.5 million, is gone automatically. So is Alex Caruso at $19.5 million. Dort, Joe and Wiggins were already luxuries this team could no longer afford. Kenrich Williams might be as well, assuming the Thunder prioritize younger players. They could maybe keep one or two more of the cheap, incumbent players. Jaylin Williams , as a big who can shoot, makes sense, and Nikola Topić as a possible developmental ball-handler would be important. But at that point, you're down to $11.5 million or so in spending power for your last five roster spots. That's three veteran's minimum contracts and two rookie minimum contracts, with a bit of spare change leftover for in-season usage.

So even in a best-case scenario in which the Thunder manage to keep all their best, young, cheap talent out of the trade, it gets dicey. If the Bucks demand Wallace, Mitchell or McCain? The concept falls apart. Even without them, a move like this would be so out of character for Oklahoma City. The Thunder prize depth as much as any team in the NBA. They don't play their players big minutes. They use everyone on the roster. That's part of how they've managed to win 132 games over the past two regular seasons despite their injuries. The Thunder might be unbeatable at full strength. Antetokounmpo, Holmgren and Williams are all injury risks at this stage, and if one or two of them went down, the house of cards might tumble.

And that's before you consider the long-term salary implications. Gilgeous-Alexander's supermax contract kicks in next offseason. So does a possible rookie extension for Wallace. Mitchell is two years away from unrestricted free agency, and in a perfect world, the Thunder would use his team option to pay him a year earlier. Oh yeah, and Antetokounmpo needs a supermax extension as well. In other words, even if they could duck the second apron next season, this version of the roster would blow by it in historic fashion in the years that follow. It would almost unquestionably be the most expensive roster in NBA history by a wide margin. That doesn't exactly scream sustainability.

The player-based path to Giannis

If the Thunder put Holmgren or Williams on the table, that changes the entire equation. There are only a handful of assets reasonably in the picture here that could compete with either of them. Evan Mobley , Paolo Banchero , or young players of that ilk might be preferable to the Bucks just because they've historically been healthier than Holmgren or Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bucks taking a picks-based package over either of them. Either takes the Thunder reasonably close to the value threshold needed here. The question then becomes how to juggle the salary.

Which of the two would the Thunder rather trade? Oklahoma City got a glimpse of life without Williams this season, and had Mitchell stayed healthy against the Spurs, they might've won the championship despite Williams' injuries. Holmgren's Spurs series, especially Game 7, was a mess . He hasn't grown as an individual shot-creator in the ways the Thunder likely hoped, and his 3-point attempt rate, while still high for a center, has gone down in each of his three seasons. His release is too slow. He was too hesitant against San Antonio.

Ultimately, I would guess that even despite his Spurs series, the Thunder would lean towards keeping Holmgren. Even he's not the shooter we hoped he'd be, Antetokounmpo teams do need a center option who can at least somewhat space the floor. Holmgren is better than most centers in that regard, and his rim-protection would be a necessity as Antetokounmpo's defense has slipped in recent years. Holmgren isn't exactly a  Brook Lopez  analog, but he's as close as Antetokounmpo could reasonably hope to get.

Williams is the only elite forward-sized defender on the roster, but Caruso defends up as well as anyone in the league, and for the biggest matchups, Antetokounmpo would obviously be here. Antetokounmpo would go further towards replacing Williams as a ball-handler than he would replacing Holmgren as a defender at this stage. Holmgren is the slightly cleaner fit, assuming he's willing to start taking the amount of 3s he'd need to take on a Giannis team.

Either way, Antetokounmpo makes around $17.2 million more than both Williams and Holmgren (who have identical salaries). Again, the second apron is our number. Considering the $39 million above the second apron they currently are, they're looking at shedding around $56 million in extra money on top of Williams to skirt the line. So long to Dort, Joe and Wiggins. The Bucks can take them if they want them, or they can be rerouted. That's almost $39 million gone, leaving us another $17 million or so to go.

Western Conference Finals winners and losers: De'Aaron Fox steps up for Spurs, two Thunder starters disappear Sam Quinn

The Thunder could go in a number of ways to potentially close that gap. Sending the Bucks their two first-round picks this year covers over $10 million, but I suspect if picks are needed here, the Thunder would rather send some deep into the future. They're no longer playing the infinite sustainability game if they pursue Antetokounmpo. The window is probably another three or four years, and they'd want those two picks this year to grow into meaningful contributors by the end of that window (and possibly replacements for Antetokounmpo if he ages out of stardom).

They could go about finding those savings through trimming proverbial fat. Kenrich Williams, Topić and Thomas Sorber make around $17.5 million combined. They all have roles in Oklahoma City's long-term vision. Williams is a locker room leader. Topić was a lottery pick they have high hopes for. Sorber was the big they likely hoped would eventually grow into Hartenstein's replacement. But none are essential to the current, on-court product.

Or, they could try to do it in one fell swoop by trading Caruso or Hartenstein. There's a real argument for either. Caruso is 32; they'd probably be getting out at the peak of his value. Hartenstein's lack of shooting creates fit questions with Antetokounmpo. Caruso is probably needed more on a version of the team that trades Williams, while Hartenstein would remain necessary if the Thunder trade Holmgren. Yet I ultimately think the Thunder would try to keep both.

Come on, you're prioritizing the present and not keeping Caruso, one of the NBA's best role players? Hartenstein's fit with Antetokounmpo would be better than most non-shooting centers. He'd function defensively much as Lopez once did, hanging near the rim and taking on the more physically taxing matchups that Antetokounmpo doesn't want. He's one of the NBA's very best screeners and excels at clearing space near the basket. He doesn't space the floor out t

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/giannis-antetokounmpo-thunder-trade/)._