MLB 2026: Yankees vs. Rays Predictions for May 22 as Gerrit Cole Returns

Gerrit Cole will make his 2026 season debut when the New York Yankees battle the American League East Division-rival Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night. The former Cy Young Award winner is returning after having Tommy John surgery and New York is hoping to limit his pitch count to around 85 to 90 pitches. The Rays (33-15), who lead the AL East and have won four games in a row, are 14-10 on the road this season. The Yankees (30-21), who are second in the division, are 16-8 on their home field in 2026.

First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees lead the all-time series 274-210, and have won five of the last eight meetings. New York is a -157 favorite on the money line (risk $157 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Rays odds, while the over/under, is 8. Before making any Rays vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the Rays vs. Yankees predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and enters Week 9 of the MLB season on a red-hot 12-1 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its  MLB betting  picks at  sportsbooks  and on  betting sites  could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rays vs. Yankees and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions.  You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks . Here are several  MLB odds  and betting lines for Yankees vs. Rays:

Yankees vs. Rays money line

Yankees -157, Rays +130

Yankees vs. Rays over/under

8 runs

Yankees vs. Rays run line

Yankees -1.5 (+137)

Yankees vs. Rays picks

See picks at SportsLine

Yankees vs. Rays streaming

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Top Rays vs. Yankees predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Rays vs. Yankees, the model is going Over 8 combined runs. For over/under betting , the Over has hit in seven of the past 10 head-to-head meetings with one push. The Over has also hit in seven of the past nine Tampa Bay games, and in four of the past six New York games. The Over has hit in eight of the past 15 New York games when the line is between 8 and 8.5 at games played at Yankee Stadium.

SportsLine's model projects 1.5 total bases or more for the Rays' Chandler Simpson , Junior Caminero , Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz . The Yankees, meanwhile, are projected to get over 1.5 total bases or more from Ben Rice , Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger , Jazz Chisholm and Paul Goldschmidt . Cole is projected to go into the sixth inning and strike out 5.3 while giving up 2.5 earned runs in his return.The model projects 10.1 combined runs as the Over hits in 62.7% of simulations. Get the Rays vs. Yankees money-line pick at SportsLine .

How to make Yankees vs. Rays picks

After simulating every pitch of Yankees vs. Rays 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine .

So who wins Rays vs. Yankees, and which side of the money line has all the value?  Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks , and find out.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/yankees-rays-odds-gerrit-cole-predictions-game-time-2026-mlb-picks-friday-may-22/)._