MLB Home Run Picks: Expert’s Top Bets for May 22 Include Braves' Matt Olson

The big news around Major League Baseball on Friday is the season debut of Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole , the 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner, against the visiting and scorching-hot Tampa Bay Rays to open an early important AL East series. This article is of course home run recommendations. I highly doubt that I'd ever recommend someone to go yard off Cole, but I will say that Tampa Bay's Yandy Diaz has had success off Cole with a .318 average, two homers and two doubles in 44 at-bats. Diaz is a cool +720 to go yard tonight.

It appears that matchups at Wrigley Field (lone Friday matinee), Citizens Bank Park in Philly, Camden Yards in Baltimore and Yankee Stadium will be rather pitcher friendly with winds blowing in. They are blowing out in Anaheim and San Francisco.

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Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks  at SportsLine , and in the  member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server , a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were the Diamondbacks ' Ketel Marte and Orioles ' Gunnar Henderson . I had to play Marte at Coors Field, and Arizona scored nine runs ... but Marte was 0-for-5. Now he's crushing the ball. As I always say, if I recommend a HR prop then I like an Over 1.5 total bases prop even better. Henderson hit that with two hits, one a double, at Washington.

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Top Friday MLB home run picks

- Matt Olson , Braves (+256, DraftKings) - Salvador Perez , Royals (+475, Bet365)

Matt Olson, Braves (+256, DraftKings)

There are a handful of starting pitchers around the majors each season you should be fading without fail; you won't win them all but you certainly would finish up quite a bit. One of those starters in 2026 is Washington Nationals right-hander Miles Mikolas . He's on a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Nats, and considering he is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA this might be his last big-league season. He gave up four runs and two homers last time out in a loss to Baltimore following an opener and has surrendered 11 dingers overall, among the most in the majors. If Washington has any wild card hopes with the team hovering around .500, then I'm not sure how much longer it can put Mikolas out there if he keeps struggling.

It's not hard to like Atlanta's Matt Olson as he's played all 162 regular-season games each of the past four seasons and all 51 so far this year. I respect people who don't take days off. And Olson would be a lot higher than +1500 for NL MVP if he didn't play in the same league as Shohei Ohtani (-450) as Olson has 14 homers and an OPS of .921. He's on track for his best season since he hit 54 bombs with a .993 OPS in 2023, when he finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

Ronald Acuna Jr . just returned from a hamstring injury Tuesday, so that only helps in terms of good pitches Olson might see batting third if the leadoff batter Acuna is on base. The big first baseman is 4-for-15 off Mikolas with two homers and two doubles. Olson is due as he's on a 10-game homer drought. The lefty slugger has hit 10 of his 14 bombs off right-handed pitching.

Also perhaps consider Austin Riley , who is 5-for-18 with a homer and double against Mikolas. There's a bit of rain in the forecast at Truist Park, but the game should be played.

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Salvador Perez, Royals (+475, bet365)

Is the 36-year-old catcher Salvador Perez a future Hall of Famer for the Kansas City Royals? I believe so. Since his debut in 2011, Perez has become a World Series champion, a five-time Gold Glove Award winner, a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger Award winner and the 2024 Roberto Clemente Award winner.

I say catcher, but Perez generally splits his time between that position, where he's an all-timer (and thriving with ABS challenges in 2026), and designated hitter. The problem is that Perez is not worth using as a DH these days as he's batting just .211 with eight homers and a .626 OPS for the disappointing Royals. There is no doubt his bat speed has slowed some. Kansas City has received the worst OPS from the cleanup spot of any team in the American League, and Perez has hit from that spot in all but three games. He does enter off a three-hit game, including a homer, on Wednesday. That raised Perez's average from below the Mendoza line.

The Royals open a home series tonight vs. Seattle, and the Mariners ' Logan Gilbert had been one of the steadiest right-handers in the AL the past few years but is 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA for the underperforming M's. Gilbert was blasted for seven runs and three homers last time out at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The 29-year-old has surrendered 11 homers overall in his 10 starts.

Perez has had plenty of success against Gilbert, going 7-for-19 with two homers and a double, good for an OPS of 1.191. Also consider All-Star second baseman Bobby Witt Jr., who is 7-for-14 off Gilbert with a dinger. Weather doesn't look to factor at Kauffman Stadium in K.C.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/free-mlb-home-run-picks-for-may-22-braves-matt-olson-among-experts-best-bets-for-friday/)._