MLB Home Run Picks, Odds, Predictions for May 16: Top HR Prop Bets Include Kyle Schwarber

Free MLB home run picks, odds, predictions for May 16: Kyle Schwarber among top HR prop bets on Saturday

Two sluggers off to great starts in the National League headline our top MLB home run picks today

By Brandon Gustafson

May 16, 2026 at 10:56 am ET • 2 min read

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Everybody's working for the weekend, and with 15 MLB games on tap on Saturday, May 16, the top sluggers in the game are working to hit the ball out of the yard. There's no shortage of  MLB betting  opportunities for sports bettors, including player props like home run picks. After taking a look at all 15 games on the schedule and the pitchers set to take the mound, we've picked two players for our best home run bets today, and both are National League sluggers off to incredible starts to 2026. These two stand out as our best bets to hit a home run today.

For even more MLB expert picks and predictions, make sure you see what the  SportsLine Projection Model  has to say.

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Best home run picks for Saturday, May 16

- Kyle Schwarber , Philadelphia Phillies (+225) - Ildemaro Vargas , Arizona Diamondbacks (+725)

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+225, FanDuel)

It's a year that ends with a number, which means Schwarber is doing what he does best -- hitting dingers. And Saturday is a day that ends with a 'Y,' so Schwarber is once again a threat to go deep. The 2025 NL MVP runner-up is back to his slugging ways after swatting 56 last year, as he enters the weekend with 20 homers on the year, the most in baseball, and he homered three times over the last two days. Schwarber has hit 14 of those home runs off right-handed pitching, and he's got a favorable matchup on Saturday with the Pirates set to start Bubba Chandler , Chandler, a young right-hander, has given up four home runs over his last four starts and six over his last six. Four of those homers have come to left-handed hitters, which bodes very well for Schwarber on Saturday.

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Ildemaro Vargas, Diamondbacks (+725, BetMGM)

Vargas has been one of the cooler stories of the 2026 season. The 34-year-old switch-hitter is hitting .347 in his 10th MLB season, and for the first time in his career, he looks like not only an every-day player, but a lineup cornerstone. Vargas has been as well-rounded of a hitter as there is in MLB in 2026, and his seven home runs are already a career high. Vargas is better power-wise from the right side, but he still has an OPS of .871 against right-handed pitchers. He gets a juicy matchup as he faces the Rockies ' Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. Sugano has allowed nine home runs already this year, including three in his most recent start.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/free-mlb-home-run-picks-odds-predictions-for-may-16-kyle-schwarber-among-top-hr-prop-bets-on-saturday/)._