MLB Trends: Guerrero Jr. Struggles, Caminero Shines, Yankees Reliever Saves Game

In about a week, we'll hit the midpoint of the 2026 season. Hard to believe, isn't it? It feels like the World Baseball Classic was just last month. (To me it does, anyway.) The All-Star Game is less than a month away and the trade deadline is right behind that. Before you know it, we'll be into the dog days of August and the various postseason and awards races will really heat up.

Here are three trends worth keeping an eye on as we approach the season's midpoint.

Vlad Jr.'s power outage

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR • 1B • #27

BA 0.280 R 39 HR 3 RBI 27 SB 5 View Profile

It is shocking that, coming out of Monday's off-day, Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr . was sitting on three home runs this season. Three! Guerrero is hitting for average (.280 going into Tuesday) and getting on base plenty (.372 on-base percentage), enough that he still rates as an above-average hitter (103 OPS+), but the power is nonexistent. He has one homer in his last 46 games.

"Obviously, I don't feel OK right now," Guerrero told Sportsnet last month. "I'm not feeling right, and you guys can tell that. I've been working very hard. I'm just looking to hit one ball very hard. It will stay in my head and my mind. I know things are going to change."

Compared to the rest of the league, Guerrero is hitting the ball hard. Compared to his last few years, though, his contact quality is down, and he's hitting more ground balls and pop-ups than usual. Less exit velocity plus more balls on the ground plus more pop-ups equals fewer home runs. Here are the numbers going into Tuesday's action:

Average EV 90th percentile EV Ground ball % Pop up % Sweet-spot %

2024

93.8 mph

110.4 mph

47.7%

4.2%

35.1%

2025

92.0 mph

110.3 mph

47.1%

6.0%

33.7%

2026

90.4 mph

108.7 mph

49.5%

8.2%

29.5%

MLB average

89.0 mph

104.6 mph

44.2%

7.1%

33.3%

A 1.5 mph year-to-year decline in average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity is significant and makes me wonder if Guerrero is fully healthy. He missed two games this past weekend with a back issue, so perhaps that explains his decline in hard-hit ability. Honestly, that would be ideal. At least then Guerrero and the Blue Jays would know the root cause of his power outage.

Even during his MVP-caliber seasons, Guerrero hit a lot of balls on the ground, and he's putting more balls on the ground this year than he has since his very early days as a big leaguer. Sweet-spot rate really tells the story. It is the percentage of batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle range, which is optimal, and Guerrero is well below the league average this season.

It's solid contact (exit velocity) at poor launch angles (sweet-spot rate). That explains the lack of over-the-fence power. The bigger question is why is Guerrero's good rather than elite, and why is he hitting the ball on the ground/popping it up? Is it this recent back issue? Guys play when they're less than 100% physically all the time. It's possible Guerrero's back has bothered him for a while.

The power outage can likely be blamed on several things. The nagging back issue. A player with a swing that has always produced a few too many ground balls getting out of whack and putting even more balls on the ground than usual. An uptick in chase rate, particularly over the last few weeks, suggests Guerrero is pressing and expanding the zone more than he should.

All that and more can be contributing to Guerrero's lack of power. Whatever the reason(s), the Blue Jays need Vlad Jr. to get his season on track soon to have their best shot at a postseason berth. He's 27 and this year is Year 1 of his 14-year, $500 million extension. Guerrero is expected to carry the Blue Jays, not just tag along for the ride.

Junior Caminero's evolving plate discipline

Junior Caminero TB • 3B • #13

BA 0.275 R 43 HR 15 RBI 32 SB 0 View Profile

A year ago,  Rays third baseman Junior Caminero became only the fourth player to hit 40 home runs in his age-21 season. His 45 dingers were second to Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews' 47 homers as a 21-year-old in 1953. Hall of Famer Mel Ott (42 homers at age 20 in 1929) and 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr . (41 homers at age 21 in 2019) are the only others to do it.

Caminero hit his 15th home run Monday and entered play Tuesday on pace for 35 homers, which is a terrific season even if it would represent a 10-homer decline from last year. It's hard to hit 40 homers in back-to-back seasons. There's no shame in going deep 35 times as a 22-year-old. Caminero is a special, special power hitter. Guys rarely hit for this much power at this age.

One reason Caminero isn't hitting the ball out of the park quite as often as he did last year is the fact that pitchers just aren't pitching to him all that much. Only 41.5% of the pitches Caminero has seen this season have been in the strike zone, the lowest rate among qualified hitters. To his credit, he's remained patient and taken the walks rather than expanding the zone looking for homers.

Last season, Caminero swung at 32.2% of pitches outside the strike zone. That was above the 29.9% league average but not alarmingly so, especially for a player in his age-21 season. Young hitters are still fine-tuning their strike zone and maybe a little anxious at the plate, and swinging at pitches they otherwise shouldn't. They're not always the most disciplined hitters, you know?

This year, Caminero's chase rate sits at 27.8%. He's seeing fewer pitches in the zone because a) pitchers don't want to make a mistake out over the plate that he can hit a mile, and b) Caminero would expand the zone at times last year. He's not taking the bait, though. His plate discipline and approach have evolved this year. Caminero has added an on-base element to his power.

We're not even at the season's midpoint and Caminero has already walked as many times this year (41) as last year (also 41). He's also cut his swinging strike rate from 11.7% last year to 8.3% this year (MLB average: 10.8%). The defense can be a little suspect, sure, but so many arrows are pointing up here. Caminero is well on his way to being a superstar hitter, if he isn't one already.

Fernando Cruz's top-of-the-line splitter

Fernando Cruz NYY • RP • #63

ERA 2.01 WHIP 1.24 IP 31.1 BB 19 K 40 View Profile

Expect the Yankees to import at least one reliever prior to the Aug. 3 trade deadline, if not multiple. The bullpen is the biggest weakness for a team that looks like the class of the American League. The Yankees have scored the most runs in the AL and allowed the fewest. They have the league's best run differential by almost 100 runs despite a shaky bullpen.

Veteran splitter specialist Fernando Cruz has been New York's best reliever this season, and it is indeed a special splitter. He's thrown it 51% of the time this year, which is actually down from 60% last year (Cruz has picked up a slider to give hitters something else to respect). The splitter has one of the highest swing-and-miss rates and miss distances in baseball this season.

Here are the numbers going into Tuesday (minimum 100 pitches thrown):

Whiff rate Average miss distance

1. Mason Miller , slider: 60.9%

1. Mason Miller, slider: 10.6 inches

2. Fernando Cruz, splitter: 55.8%

2. Fernando Cruz, splitter: 7.9 inches

3. Jeff Hoffman , slider: 54.0%

3. José Soriano , curveball: 7.6 inches

4. Chase Burns , slider: 52.6%

4. Connor Phillips , sweeper: 7.6 inches

5. Brent Headrick , slider: 52.2%

5. Kyle Bradish , curveball: 6.8%

Miller's slider is from another planet. It is the single most dominant pitch in the sport, even ahead of his 103 mph fastball. Cruz's splitter isn't far behind Miller's slider though. Whiff rate is misses per swing and average miss distance is the distance between the bat and the ball on a whiff (at its closest point). They tell us hitters miss Cruz's splitter a lot and miss it by a lot.

Given the splitter's ability to miss bats, the Yankees don't use Cruz as their closer or as a dedicated eighth-inning setup man. He's a true fireman who comes in with men on base to escape jams. Cruz has entered with men on base in 18 of his 34 appearances this year, the third most in baseball, and he's inherited 29 runners. That is also the third most in baseball.

Cruz has allowed only four of those 29 inherited runners to score, or 14%. That's less than half the 31% league average. The splitter and his versatility make Cruz a uniquely valuable weapon. He's the game's best at coming into a messy inning to snuff out a rally. No matter how the Yankees remake their bullpen at the trade deadline, Cruz will be a big part of it the rest of the season.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trends-vladimir-guerrero-jr-blue-jays-junior-caminero-rays-yankees-fernando-cruz/)._