NFC North Win Totals: Vikings Underestimated, Packers Overrated

The NFC North went topsy-turvy in 2026. The Chicago Bears went from last place in the division to first, while the Detroit Lions went from first place to last.

First-year head coach Ben Johnson came in and delivered an 11-6 record for the Bears, earning Chicago its first division title since 2018. The Bears also won their first playoff game in 15 years, beating the rival Green Bay Packers . It was expected the Lions would take a step back when Dan Campbell lost superstar coordinators Johnson and Aaron Glenn, and they certainly did. Detroit lost more games in 2025 than it had in the previous two seasons combined, finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs.

The Packers, meanwhile, did what they've done in each of the past two years: finish as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. They went all-in for Micah Parsons , trading two first-round picks plus defensive tackle Kenny Clark to the Dallas Cowboys for the star pass rusher. However, Parsons could miss the start of the 2026 campaign after tearing his ACL in Week 15. The Minnesota Vikings may have the most tragic story of them all. They allowed quarterback Sam Darnold to walk in free agency and tabbed J.J. McCarthy as the new starter. Darnold signed with Seattle and won a Super Bowl , while McCarthy struggled and is on the verge of being replaced after a 9-8 season.

What will happen in the NFC North this year? Now that the full 2026  NFL schedule  has been released, let's dissect the win totals for each team in the division, courtesy of  DraftKings  Sportsbook.

Odds to win the NFC North in 2026

Team Odds

Detroit Lions

+186

Green Bay Packers

+210

Chicago Bears

+310

Minnesota Vikings

+500

Chicago Bears: Over/Under 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

The Bears just went 11-6 last season. Aren't they moving in the right direction with Caleb Williams ? Well, there's more to the story when it comes to this line.

The Bears have the toughest strength of schedule this season based on their opponents' combined record from last year (.550). Each of the last nine teams to enter a season with the toughest strength of schedule failed to win a playoff game, according to CBS Sports Research. That's some frightening recent history if you're a Bears fan.

Additionally, several indicators suggest Chicago is due for regression. The Bears set an NFL record by winning seven games when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, including the playoffs, and the defense led the league with a whopping 33 takeaways. That likely won't happen again, especially since the Bears lost Kevin Byard , Nahshon Wright and Tremaine Edmunds .

The 9.5 line is Chicago's highest win total since 2012, and the under is 10-2-1 over the past 12 seasons. The Bears also haven't gone over their preseason win total in consecutive seasons since 2006.

However, I have a lot of faith in Williams and Ben Johnson. I believe Williams will improve on his 58.1% completion rate, and I'm anticipating second-year jumps from Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland . Give me the over at plus money. I have the Bears winning exactly 10 games.

Verdict : Over 9.5

Detroit Lions: Over/Under 10.5 (-110)

Here's a fun fact: This is the third straight season the Lions have had a win total of 10.5. They crushed that number in 2024 by going 15-2, but fell short last year, finishing 9-8.

I wasn't surprised to see the Lions take a major step back without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. It was clear those were elite coordinators who got the most out of their players, but injuries also played a major role in the regression. CBS Sports Research notes there were 31 missed games among Week 1 starters in the secondary. So 2025 could prove to be an anomaly.

The Lions have plenty going for them. Quarterback Jared Goff has led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns over the past four seasons. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored more touchdowns in his first three seasons than any player in NFL history. Amon-Ra St. Brown , Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta provide a great supporting cast.

Detroit traded running back David Montgomery to Houston, but I think Isiah Pacheco is going to play a fun role in this offense with his maniacal running style. Defensively, Aidan Hutchinson is an elite pass rusher, Jack Campbell was one of the best linebackers in football last year and cashed in on a lucrative deal, and Brian Branch , Kerby Joseph , DJ Reed and Roger McCreary can handle the weapons in the NFC North if they stay healthy.

It's important to note that the Lions have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I'll take them to go 11-6.

Verdict : Over 10.5

Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +115, Under -140)

I'm not feeling very optimistic about the Packers entering 2026 because I don't think they got better. The Packers lost pass rusher Rashan Gary , wide receiver Romeo Doubs , cornerback Nate Hobbs , linebacker Quay Walker , offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins , pass rusher Kingsley Enagbare and wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks .

They traded for linebacker Zaire Franklin , signed defensive lineman Javon Hargrave and drafted defensive back Brandon Cisse , but that's about it in terms of additions.

The Packers are tied for the third-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Plus, Micah Parsons is expected to open the year on the PUP list, while star running back Josh Jacobs was recently arrested on five charges related to domestic violence . I'm not taking the Packers to go over 10.5 wins this season.

Verdict : Under 10.5

Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)

I've found that the Vikings are one of the more polarizing teams entering this season. They brought in Kyler Murray to battle J.J. McCarthy for the starting job, but I think most would be surprised if the former No. 1 overall pick isn't under center in Week 1. So how much will Murray improve this team, if at all?

Murray played just five games for the Arizona Cardinals last season because of a foot injury, but it also felt like a soft benching. He's missed 30 of a possible 68 games over the past five seasons and hasn't looked great since 2021.

Still, we all know Murray at his best is an electric playmaker, and he should feel rejuvenated by the change of scenery.

Murray will have some fantastic weapons to work with, including Justin Jefferson , Jordan Addison , T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings . I believe Jennings is one of the most underrated signings of the entire offseason, so don't get me started on him. He ranked second on the 49ers in receptions and receiving yards over the past two seasons and led the team in red-zone targets (34), fourth-quarter targets (50) and third-down targets (69) during that span. He's also an elite run blocker and doesn't drop the football.

Thanks for entertaining my rant.

Murray now also has the backing of a Brian Flores-led defense, which he didn't have in Arizona. The Vikings did lose Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Allen and Jonathan Greenard on the defensive front, but I like some of the additions they made in the draft, including linebacker Jake Golday , defensive tackle Domonique Orange and safety Jakobe Thomas .

The Vikings hit the over on this line last year thanks to a five-game winning streak to end the season. Do we really see Minnesota getting worse?

Verdict : Over 8.5

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfc-north-win-totals-2026-bears-lions-packers-vikings-picks/)._