NFL: Unlikely Division Winners, A.J. Brown Trade Twist, and 2023 Redraft Analysis

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

With Memorial Day now in the rearview mirror, you might think we're about to hit the slow part of the NFL offseason, but think again, because there is no slow part of the NFL offseason. The A.J. Brown trade rumors alone should be able to keep us busy for at least another week, and speaking of Brown, we'll be taking a look at the latest rumors in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be ranking the division winners who are most likely to be dethroned.

As always, here's your reminder to tell your friends to  sign up for the newsletter . It makes the perfect graduation gift and that's mostly because it's free. Alright, let's get to the rundown.

1. Division winners most likely to be dethroned

Most NFL fans can't agree on much, but if we can all agree on one thing it's the fact that all eight division winners are definitely NOT going to repeat in 2026. We might have three or four repeat champions next season, but we certainly won't have eight.

With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to rank each division champion by who's most likely to be dethroned this year. If you're at the top of this list, that's a bad thing. That means that Tyler is basically giving you a zero percent chance of repeating as champion.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the the top three teams on his list:

1. AFC North: Steelers . The Steelers finally heard from Aaron Rodgers , and they will, in fact, have him back for the 2026 season. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Steelers have a 42-year-old quarterback under center for them in 2026. While he's built an illustrious career and was solid during his first season in Pittsburgh last year, he's also liable to look like a 42-year-old man who has one foot out the door.

2. NFC South: Panthers . Listen, I'm just as shocked as you are to see a team that effectively backed into a division title with an 8-9 record in 2025 not listed as the team most at risk of losing its division crown. However, that's where I find myself with Carolina. I loved some of the offseason moves they made, bolstering the defense with edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd , while adding more protection for Bryce Young with veteran Rasheed Walker and first-round rookie tackle Monroe Freeling . With the NFC South perpetually being a division that you can seemingly win by simply being .500, give Carolina a puncher's chance. But that's as far as we'll go.

3. AFC East: Patriots . New England had a historically easy schedule in 2025. In fact, it was the easiest schedule since the 1999 Rams . That won't be the case this time around. In 2026, the Patriots will now play a first-place schedule, which ranks as the fifth-toughest strength of schedule (based on 2025 win percentages). On top of the added difficulty of competition, the Patriots will travel much more this season, posting the fifth-most travel miles in the league at 27,590. Those include cross-country trips to Seattle (Week 1) and Los Angeles (Week 12), as well as an international trek to Germany (Week 10), where they'll face the Lions . While they have many returning faces and arguably improved the roster throughout the offseason, the Patriots have been eyed as a possible regression candidate due to a tougher schedule. And Buffalo is itching for revenge after losing ground to them in 2025.

If you want to check out Tyler's full rankings, we've got that here .

2. Trade targets for the Packers with Josh Jacobs' ongoing legal situation

Josh Jacobs is currently dealing with a very serious legal situation in Green Bay and there's certainly a chance that it could end with him facing an NFL suspension. If that happens, the Packers could look to make a move by adding a running back. Even if Jacobs doesn't miss any time, it could still make sense for the Packers to make a move because they still haven't really replaced Emmanuel Wilson, who signed with the Seahawks in free agency.

If Green Bay does look to add a running back, here are a few names who could make sense in a trade:

- Any Cardinals running back ( Tyler Allgeier , James Conner or Trey Benson ). The Cardinals signed Allgeier this offseason and then turned around and used the third overall pick on Jeremiyah Love , so they're absolutely loaded at the position. Packers coach Mike LeFleur is the brother of Arizona head coach Mike LaFleur, so this would be a pretty simple phone call to make for Green Bay. Also, former Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon is now the defensive coordinator in Green Bay, so he could give the Packers some advice on who they should go after in Arizona. - Alvin Kamara . Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has been given multiple chances to publicly commit to Kamara this offseason, but instead, he sounds like a guy who might be willing to trade away his star running back. With the Saints signing Travis Etienne back in March, Kamara is suddenly expendable. Not only that, he restructured his contract in March and the new deal makes it much easier for the Saints to trade him after June 1.

There are also several free agents still available, including Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt . The list of free agents also includes several players who will be coming off a serious injury and that list of names includes Joe Mixon (missed the entire season with a mysterious foot injury), Najee Harris (tore his Achilles in Week 3), Austin Ekeler (tore his Achilles in Week 2) and Antonio Gibson (tore his ACL in Week 5).

The Packers will likely want some more clarity on Jacobs' legal situation before making any decisions, so the team probably won't be in a rush to make a move, but as we said, they could stand t add a running back whether Jacobs is available or not, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them add a running back at some point in June or before training camp.

3. 2023 NFL redraft: C.J. Stroud gets taken with the top pick

Last week, we went back and regraded the entire 2023 draft, so this week, we're going to do something slightly different: We're going to throw the results of the draft out and do a redraft.

This is where we take every player from the 2023 draft, throw them back into the pot and then draft them again based on what we know now. The draft order will stay the same. Since the Panthers had the first pick in 2023, they'll get the first pick here. Three years ago, they took Bryce Young at first overall, but will they do that in our redraft? Let's find out.

Ryan Wilson handled the redraft and here's how the top 10 played out:

1. Panthers: QB C.J. Stroud (Original pick: Bryce Young) 2. Texans : QB Bryce Young (Original pick: C.J. Stroud) 3. Texans: WR Puka Nacua (Original pick: Will Anderson Jr. ) 4. Colts : EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (Original pick: Anthony Richardson ) 5. Seahawks: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Original pick: Devon Witherspoon ) 6. Cardinals: OT Darnell Wright (Original pick: Paris Johnson Jr. ) 7. Raiders : OT Paris Johnson (Original pick: Tyree Wilson ) 8. Falcons : DL Jalen Carter (Original pick: Bijan Robinson ) 9. Eagles : TE Tucker Kraft (Original pick: Jalen Carter) 10. Bears : RB Bijan Robinson (Original pick: Darnell Wright)

At one point in 2023, the Panthers actually thought they were going to get C.J. Stroud , so they'll have to settle for getting him in our redraft. The biggest winner here is probably Colts who would get to dump Anthony Richardson and steal one of the best defenders in the game from a division rival.

Wilson went through the entire first round in his redraft and you can see all 32 picks here .

4. A.J. Brown trade rumors: Patriots and Eagles aren't on the same page with compensation

Over the past three months, it's been pretty much assumed that the Eagles are going to trade A.J. Brown and that he's most likely going to be dealt to the Patriots. However, the reason the deal hasn't happened yet is because, from a financial standpoint, it doesn't make any sense for Philadelphia to do due to the deal until after June 1 (The Eagles would take a dead cap hit of $43.4 million in 2026 if they traded Brown before June 1,  according to Over the Cap,  but that number drops to $16.4 million if they trade him after June 1).

With June 1 coming next week, a deal could come quickly, but before that can happen, the Patriots and Eagles need to get on the same page. Let's check out the latest:

- Patriots not willing to meet the Eagles' asking price. Right now, the Eagles are looking to get a first-round pick in the deal for Brown, but apparently, the Patriots don't want to give one up, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport . According to Rapoport, the two sides are "not particularly close" when it comes to compensation. A trade will likely happen, but there's going to be a lot of haggling over the next few days. - What the trade compensation should be. Former NFL agent Joel Corry broke down the trade in a detailed story on Wednesday that you should definitely read (Check it out here ). According to Corry, the Eagles should at least get something in the neighborhood of what the Seahawks got for DK Metcalf , "The Steelers traded the equivalent of a second-round pick to the Seahawks for Metcalf in March 2025," Corry pointed out. Basically, unless the Patriots end up in a bidding war with another team, it could be tough for Philly to get a first-round pick. - What Brown's new team will owe him. If Brown ends up with the Patriots (or any other team), here's what the cap implications will look like for his new team, according to Corry: "The acquiring team would assume the remainder of Brown's contract, including the right to exercise the 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029 options. The new team would have a $6.79 million cap hit for Brown in 2026 consisting of $5.49 million of option bonus proration from the $27.45 million option bonus and his $1.3 million base salary, assuming the dummy/voiding 2031 contract year is picked up. Brown's 2027, 2028 and 2029 cap numbers would be $10.996 million, $17.883 million and $23.591 million primarily because of the respective $19.405 million, $29.36 million and $28.315 million option bonuses in 2027, 2028 and 2029."

Even if the Patriots and Eagles aren't on the same page just yet, they have plenty of time to negotiation. The Eagles won't be making a trade until Monday at 4 p.m. ET at the absolute earliest, so there's still plenty time for the Eagles to find a taker who will be willing to pay their asking price.

5. AFC North win totals: This might be the year to back the Bengals

After unveiling his best over/under bets for the AFC East on Monday, Jordan Dajani is back to cover another division. Today, he's going to predict every over/under in the AFC North, and surprisingly, he seems to be pretty high on the two OHIO teams, who both under performed last year.

Let's check out out his thoughts on the Bengals and Browns :

Cincinnati Bengals Odds:  Over 9.5 (-145) / Under 9.5 (+120) Dajani's take:  I'm high on the Bengals this year, and Joe Burrow   is too.  After a big offseason, he's ready for another run at a Super Bowl . The Bengals offense can be one of the best in the league if everyone remains healthy, and then if the defense can take a simple step forward in the second season of the Al Golden era, the Bengals should get back to the postseason. Dajani's lean:  Over 9.5 (-145)

Cleveland Browns Odds:  Over 6.5 (+105) / Under 6.5 (-125) Dajani's take:  The Ravens and Bengals are expected to play some pretty easy schedules in 2026, but the easiest strength of schedule belongs to the Cleveland Browns (.429 opponent win percentage in 2025). Check this stat out: The AFC team with the easiest schedule has finished with a winning record in eight straight seasons, so maybe this is the year the Browns finally turn it around. I say it all hinges on the play of Deshaun Watson , who is expected to be Cleveland's starting quarterback once again. If the Browns can get average quarterback play, they a

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-division-winners-who-are-unlikely-to-repeat-plus-new-twist-in-a-j-brown-trade-talks-and-a-2023-redraft/)._