Orioles vs. Red Sox Thursday Parlay: Rogers and Bello Pitching Differently

It's a getaway day around Major League Baseball on Thursday, and that means a handful of matinees. I think the best value play is in a 1:35 ET first pitch from Fenway Park as the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox conclude their three-game AL East set. They won't see one another again until after the All-Star break.

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Orioles vs. Red Sox single-game parlay

- Boston +1.5 - Alt Under 12.5

DraftKings SGP price: +104

The Red Sox's firing of highly respected manager Alex Cora and pretty much his entire coaching staff in late April has given the team a minor boost, if perhaps not quite what the front office/ownership hoped for, as Boston was 10-17 under Cora and is 16-17 under interim manager Chad Tracy. The Sox sit last in the AL East and are +370 to reach the playoffs with No at -500.

If the team turns things around at Fenway, maybe a wild card spot is doable, as the Red Sox are 10-20 in their park compared to a very solid 16-14 away. They had been the only team in the majors without double-digit home victories but got there with Wednesday's 8-0 blowout victory over Baltimore. Still, it's Boston worst start at Fenway through 30 games since the 1932 club was 7-23. That team finished 43-111 overall.

"Sick of it," infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa said this week of the home struggles before Wednesday's breakout. "Gotta figure out a way to gain some momentum here, score early. Get the fans on our side early. Get the environment early. It's hard to get the place jumping when you're not out in front early."

Indeed, the Red Sox scored in the bottom of the first Wednesday. All nine starting position players had at least one hit overall. And the bullpen is in fabulous shape today because Boston used only two total pitchers in that victory and no high-leverage guys.

The team is far from whole right now, with shortstop Trevor Story , outfielder and former top prospect Roman Anthony , ace Garrett Crochet and top setup man Garrett Whitlock all on the injured list. It doesn't appear that any but Whitlock might be close to a return – Story could be out until August -- with Crochet suffering a setback this week.

Boston isn't going anywhere without the lefty atop the rotation, especially with a punchless lineup that has managed only 45 homers, fewest in the American League. Willson Contreras and Jarren Duran each have double-digit homers, but no one else has more than seven.

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One piece of recent good news, though, has been the turnaround of right-hander Brayan Bello , who takes the mound today. The 27-year-old is 2-5 with a 5.63 ERA, which obviously isn't great, but at one point he was 1-4 with a 9.12 ERA. In five May outings, he had a 2.67 ERA and three quality outings – seven shutout innings last time out in Cleveland, his second straight outing with no runs allowed -- but the Red Sox went 1-4 overall because of a lack of run support.

Bello is only getting 3.29 runs of support per start and has been worth minus-$513 to bettors who wagered $100 on each of his seven starts for Boston to win. He has followed an opener four times and has a 0.71 ERA in those appearances (9.68 ERA in 30.2 innings as a starter), but Boston is still 1-3 because the opener has struggled. Bello has said he would like to no longer follow one, but it's not up to him. And he has an 11.57 ERA in the first inning this year (nine earned runs in seven innings).

Pitching coach Andrew Bailey explained to NESN why following an opener has helped Bello: "You're wanting to set [pitchers] up for success ... if we can minimize the amount of lefties that he faces, the Red Sox and Brayan are in a better position to succeed."

Yet it appears that he will not follow one today as of publication, but that might change. Bello started in Baltimore on April 24 and was absolutely shredded to the tune of eight runs on 13 hits (five homers) over 3.1 innings of a blowout loss. Adley Rutschman went yard twice off him. Bello had never allowed more than three homers or 10 hits in his 104 previous MLB outings. He was good vs. Baltimore in 2025 with a 2.53 ERA in 10.2 innings.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Bello at 5.1 innings pitched, 4.2 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs. At DraftKings, he's set at Over/Under 15.5 outs recorded and +213 for a win.

The Orioles hit rock bottom May 20 when they were swept at Tampa Bay to fall to 21-29, but the Birds have been playing a lot better since – Wednesday excluded -- to get out of the AL East cellar. Baltimore doesn't have the starting pitching, though, to really be much of a playoff threat.

Lefty Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.84 ERA) is on the mound Thursday, and the 28-year-old might have been the worst pitcher in the majors in May at 0-3 with a 10.31 ERA and 24 hits allowed in 18.1 innings over four starts.

The Orioles won his first three starts of 2026 (Rogers had a 1.89 ERA) and have dropped the past seven, so Rodgers has been worth minus-$479 to those who wagered $100 on each of his starts for the O's to win. He has been a bit unlucky, as opponents' batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this year is nearly 100 points higher at .323 than his .226 number last year.

Rogers lost at home to Boston on April 25, lasting just 1.2 innings and allowing three runs and four hits. The Red Sox won that game 17-1 … and fired Cora and his staff right after.  On the road this year, Rogers is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA and opponents' BA of .308.

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The winds are blowing out some, but 12.5 is a pretty big number outside of Coors Field and in a getaway day game after a night one and where a regular or two might sit on either side. The model has 9.1 runs scored, 4.8 of those by Boston. Looking for a second straight MLB parlay win after cashing on Padres-Phillies +106 last night.  Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/orioles-vs-red-sox-thursday-matinee-parlay-rogers-bello-are-starting-pitchers-going-in-opposite-directions/)._