Pirates vs. Cardinals: MLB Picks for May 21, 2026, From Proven Model

Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Thursday, May 21 from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals 10,000 times and revealed its MLB picks for Thursday's matchup

By Andy Bryan

May 21, 2026 at 10:18 am ET • 2 min read

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The St. Louis Cardinals look to win the series at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals won Game 1, 9-6, while the Pirates won Game 2, 7-0. The Pirates are in last place in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are currently in second place. Pittsburgh will send Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 56 strikeouts) to the mound, and the Cardinals will counter with Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 35 strikeouts).

First pitch from Busch Stadium in St. Louis is set for 1:15 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh is a -130 favorite on the money line (risk $130 to win $100) in the latest Pirates vs. Cardinals odds, while the over/under is 7.5. Before making any Cardinals vs. Pirates picks, be sure to see the Pirates vs. Cardinals predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and enters Week 9 of the MLB season on a red-hot 12-1 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its  MLB betting  picks at  sportsbooks  and on  betting sites  could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Pirates vs. Cardinals and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions.  You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks . Here are several  MLB odds  and betting lines for Cardinals vs. Pirates:

Pirates vs. Cardinals money line

Pirates -130, Cardinals +109

Pirates vs. Cardinals over/under

7.5 runs

Pirates vs. Cardinals run line

Pirates -1.5 (+133)

Pirates vs. Cardinals picks

See picks at SportsLine

Pirates vs. Cardinals streaming

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Top Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Pirates vs. Cardinals, the model is going Over 7.5 combined runs. For over/under betting , the Over has hit in in 63% of games for the Cardinals when the total is set at 7.5. The over has hit in four out of six games between the Pirates and Cardinals.

SportsLine's model projects 1.7 or more total bases for the Pirates' Brandon Lowe , Bryan Reynolds , and Oneil Cruz . The Cardinals, meanwhile, are projected to get over 1.5 total bases or more from Ivan Herrera , Alec Burleson , and Jordan Walker . The model projects 9.3 combined runs as the Over hits in 66.7% of simulations. Get the Pirates vs. Cardinals money-line pick at SportsLine .

How to make Pirates vs. Cardinals picks

After simulating every pitch of Cardinals vs. Pirates 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine .

So who wins Pirates vs. Cardinals, and which side of the money line has all the value?  Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks , and find out.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/pirates-cardinals-prediction-odds-time-2026-mlb-picks-thursday-may-21/)._