Proven Expert's Best Bets for Bayern Munich vs. PSG Champions League Semifinal Second Leg

Bayern Munich vs. PSG prediction: Champions League semifinal second leg best bets from proven expert

SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green has broken down Wednesday's Champions League semifinal and locked in his best bets as Bayern host Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg

By James Holliman

May 5, 2026 at 9:00 am ET • 5 min read

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Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will battle for a spot in the UEFA Champions League final on Wednesday, May 6 at Allianz Arena after PSG won a thrilling 5-4 affair in the first leg last week. PSG are the defending champions and both teams should be at full strength, as both are poised to win their league titles. Bayern have already won Germany's Bundesliga title, holding a 16-point lead with two games left, while PSG are six points up in France's Ligue 1 with three to play.

Wednesday's kickoff in Munich is set for 3 p.m. ET, and sports fans can watch all the Champions League action live on Paramount+ . Bayern are -145 home favorites (wager $145 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Bayern Munich vs. PSG odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Paris Saint-Germain are +290 underdogs (wager $100 to win $290), while a draw is priced at +400 and the match goals total is set at 4.5 (Over +115, Under -145).

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In soccer  money line betting , only a draw wager pays out if there's no winner after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and there's also  prop betting and  parlay betting  available. You can check out the SportsLine Projection Model  to see the latest PSG vs. Bayern predictions, but you have to see SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green's best bets for the match before making any wagers.

After working in the  sports betting  industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his  soccer betting  picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.

Here are Green's best bets and analysis for Bayern vs. PSG on Wednesday, May 6.

Bayern Munich vs. PSG best bets

- PSG +0.75 (+102): 1 unit - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score or Assist (+100): 0.5 units

Bayern Munich and PSG will battle for a place in the Champions League final when they lock horns at Allianz Arena on Wednesday.

This two-legged clash is delicately poised after PSG beat Bayern 5-4 in Paris last week. It was one of the most entertaining games of all time, as both teams were absolutely rampant in attack.

Harry Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot, but goals from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and João Neves put PSG 2-1 up. Michael Olise then scored a stunning solo effort, only for Ousmane Dembélé to restore PSG's lead on the stroke of half-time. Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé then scored two quick-fire goals in the second half to make it 5-2 to PSG. At that point, Bayern looked dead and buried, but Dayot Upamecano headed in Joshua Kimmich's free kick to narrow the deficit.

Kane then delivered a magnificent long ball for Luis Díaz, who controlled it superbly and fired an unstoppable strike into the far corner. There was still time for PSG substitute Senny Mayulu to hit the crossbar with a powerful late strike, capping a wild night in Paris.

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Soccer fans expect another goal-fest

Soccer fans are now looking forward to another entertaining clash between these European heavyweights on Tuesday. Bayern have already won the Bundesliga title in Germany, so they rested their key players at the weekend.

PSG are also well clear of their closest rivals at the top of the Ligue 1 table in France, so they fielded a reserve team for their 2-2 draw with Lorient on Saturday. It means that Kane, Díaz, Olise, Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé will all be fresh for this game, so the stage is set for another goal fest.

The sportsbooks have taken the extraordinary step of setting the total goals (Over/Under) line at 4.5. It's normally set at 2.5 goals on most soccer games, but Over 2.5 is priced at -500 on this match. You typically get plus-money odds if you bet on over 3.5 goals in a soccer match, but Over 3.5 Goals is priced at -200 for this game.

That reflects the attacking brilliance of both teams, but it's also a damning indictment of their defenses. PSG carved through Bayern's back line at will in the first leg and probably should have score more than five goals. Yet the Parisians also looked shaky at the back, as they struggled to deal with the pace, movement, and technical ability of Olise, Díaz and Kane. We could witness another high-scoring match on Wednesday, but betting on Over 4.5 goals doesn't really appeal.

Bayern's home games have averaged 4.33 goals in the Champions League this season, but PSG's away games have only averaged 3.57 goals. That figure is skewed by a 7-2 away win against Bayer Leverkusen in the group stage. Their other six away games have all seen under 4.5 goals, and it's worth noting that they kept clean sheets against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and against Liverpool at Anfield.

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Teams are evenly matched

The sportsbooks make Bayern Munich the heavy favorite to win this game. The impetus is on the Bavarians to attack from the first whistle, as they trail by one goal on aggregate.

PSG know that a draw will be enough to take them through to the Champions League final, so the Parisians don't need to play with the same level of urgency. However, the odds don't really reflect just how evenly matched these teams are. Bayern are priced at -145 to -163 to win this game at the leading sportsbooks, while you can find odds of +320 on PSG.

That's a huge price on the reigning European champions. It's worth remembering that PSG are unbeaten in their last 10 Champions League knockout-stage games. They've faced Bayern, Liverpool, Chelsea, Monaco , Inter Milan and Arsenal during that stretch, so they know how to grind out results against elite opponents.

Both teams are absolutely stacked in attack, but PSG have a better midfield than Bayern. The Parisians also look slightly better in defense, despite an injury to right-back Achraf Hakimi . You can get odds of +102 on PSG +0.75 in this game, which looks like a great price. That means you get paid out if PSG win or draw this game, and you only lose half your stake if the Parisians lose by a single goal.

Kvaratskhelia is priced at +100 to score or assist in this game, which also looks appealing. He has scored 11 goals in his last 10 games, and he links up well with Dembélé and Desiré Doué in attack, so he should enjoy another fruitful evening on Wednesday.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/bayern-munich-vs-psg-prediction-champions-league-semifinal-second-leg-best-bets-from-proven-expert/)._