Rockies vs. Pirates MLB Picks: Lorenzen and Skenes Set for Potential Pitching Mismatch

Rockies vs. Pirates Tuesday MLB picks: Potential pitching mismatch of season thus far between Lorenzen, Skenes

Tuesday's Rockies-Pirates game looks lopsided on the mound

By Matt Severance

May 12, 2026 at 9:09 am ET • 4 min read

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I am not going to preview every single Paul Skenes start for the Pirates in this space, but there's no question that when the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner takes the mound, it draws more attention than a typical MLB game. I find his home start tonight vs. Colorado somewhat amusing, because it appears to be perhaps the starting pitching mismatch of the season to this point, as he is opposed by struggling journeyman Michael Lorenzen .

Rockies-Pirates BetRivers parlay (-112)

- Pirates -1 - Alt Under 9.5

Skenes (5-2, 2.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) has had some memorable outings already in his two-plus seasons in the majors but comes off arguably his best one, eight shutout innings with only two hits allowed, seven strikeouts and no walks in a 1-0 victory at Arizona. Four strikeouts came on four-seam fastballs, two on changeups and one with his unusual splitter.

Skenes didn't throw more than 17 pitches in an inning and three times needed nine or fewer. He was the first Pirates pitcher with eight-plus innings and two or fewer baserunners allowed since Doug Drabek in 1991.

"I don't know what else there is to say," Bucs manager Don Kelly said. "He was unbelievable. Getting ahead in counts, the elite stuff, being able to put guys away, low pitch count, very efficient. He was unreal."

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Skenes was never particularly close to his first no-hitter. He did retire the first 14 he faced, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit a soft dribbler down the third-base line for an infield single and then Nolan Arenado followed with a sharp single to left. That was the final baserunner Skenes allowed.

The 23-year-old whiffed the final three batters he faced in the eighth. He clearly owns Arizona, now at 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA in four career starts against the Diamondbacks , including three straight scoreless starts. He became the first pitcher with three straight scoreless starts of six-plus innings against the Snakes.

Apparently, with him at 97 pitches, there was no real thought about letting him pitch the ninth and try for his first complete game and shutout. Skenes said he wasn't clear on his pitch count after the eighth. Kelly said they "talked about it briefly."

The outing was an out shy of his career longest start on July 23, 2024 vs. St. Louis, and his game score of 85.0 was the best of 2026 and second-best career after an 87.0 on July 11 in his rookie year, in which Skenes threw seven no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts and one walk in a victory.

It was the second time in the past three outings that Skenes, +200 to repeat as NL Cy Young, has been dominant. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning of a 6-0 win over the Brewers on April 24 – although he struggled in the start in between against St. Louis. Skenes has already reached half his win total from 2025 when he got almost no run support -- he didn't get his fifth win until July 21. This year, he's getting plenty, with six starts of at least six runs of support compared to just one with 0-2, and that obviously was against Arizona.

At home this season, Skenes is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and .171 batting average against in four starts spanning 21.1 innings with 26 strikeouts. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Colorado. The SportsLine Projection Model projects him for 5.3 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 4.1 hits allowed and 1.3 earned runs. Skenes is -155 to personally win at DraftKings; I personally don't trust the Pittsburgh bullpen regarding that prop play.

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The Rockies are terrible, if not quite as historically bad as last season. Per usual, the pitching staff is the main culprit with a 4.84 collective ERA that is second-worst in the majors Over the weekend in Philly, the Rockies allowed 22 total runs and at least six in each game. In fact, they have allowed at least six runs in eight of their past 10.

Colorado signed Lorenzen to a one-year deal worth $8 million in the offseason and has gotten little on that return, as the righty is 2-4 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Sure, some of that is pitching at Coors Field, but in four road outings Lorenzen allowed at least four runs in two of them.

He was shelled for seven runs on 11 hits last time out in Denver vs. the Mets . The model has him allowing 3.3 earned in 5.4 innings tonight. Lorenzen is a cool +469 to get a victory (No at -730) and +596 on a head-to-head strikeout matchup vs. Skenes (-1000).

"Michael will be fine. He wanted to come here, to pitch here specifically. He'll figure it out," first-year manager Warren Schaeffer said after the Mets outing.

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The model has Pittsburgh winning by 2.1 runs, and it having any team winning by that much is pretty rare. But I much prefer the possibility of a push on -1 than a loss on -1.5 no matter the price. If Skenes is as dominant as I expect, the Pirates shouldn't hammer Lorenzen THAT bad to worry about the alt total.  Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/rockies-vs-pirates-tuesday-mlb-picks-potential-pitching-mismatch-of-season-thus-far-between-lorenzen-skenes/)._