Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano: Fight Predictions, Odds, and Expert Picks

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight predictions, odds, undercard and expert picks for Netflix event

The pair of women's pioneers in MMA are set to clash in the main event on Saturday night in Los Angeles

By Brent Brookhouse

May 15, 2026 at 10:58 am ET • 3 min read

- - -

It's rare to see a high-profile American mixed martial arts event without UFC on the marquee, but that is the case on Saturday as Most Valuable Promotions dips a toe in the sport with MVP MMA. The event is headlined by a longtime "What if?" matchup between female MMA pioneers Gina Carano and Ronda Rousey .

Carano, 44, was a star in Strikeforce and Elite XC in the mid to late 2000s. After winning her first seven professional fights, Carano met Cris Cyborg in a superfight in 2009, where she lost by first-round TKO.

Carano has not fought since that 2009 loss, taking roles in Hollywood before her ascent as an actress was halted by controversial social media statements equating disagreements over political beliefs with the treatment of Jews in Nazi Germany. The controversy led to Carano losing her role on the Star Wars show "The Mandalorian" and being forced into roles in low-budget films such as "Terror on the Prairie" and "My Son Hunter."

In many ways, Carano wrote the blueprint for Rousey's MMA career, though Rousey had an established high-level combat sports career prior to entering the sport. Rousey was an accomplished judo player, taking bronze in the 2008 Summer Olympics.

Rousey was an immediate force in MMA, with the first six fights of her career ending in the first round, five of them within one minute. Four of those fights took place in the Strikeforce cage before Rousey signed a UFC contract, with UFC CEO Dana White admitting that he changed his tune from his longtime opposition to women fighting in the promotion entirely because of Rousey, who was already gaining significant mainstream attention.

Rousey rattled off six UFC wins, with only Miesha Tate taking her past the first round and another three fights ending in less than a minute.

In 2015, Rousey suffered a shocking upset when she was significantly outstruck by Holly Holm before Holm ended the fight with a head kick. A 48-second TKO loss to Amanda Nunes came the following year, and Rousey retired from competition.

Just like Carano, Rousey paired massive mainstream popularity with unforced PR errors, such as Rousey posting a video to social media in 2013 suggesting the horrific shooting the year prior that resulted in 26 deaths at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut was a hoax featuring "crisis actors." Rousey would issue an apology 11 years later .

Both women left undeniable marks on the sport and helped to legitimize women's MMA for many fans. Now, after a combined 27 years out of action, the two women will meet in the main event of a massive event on Netflix.

But there's plenty more action set for the card, including a welterweight bout between Mike Perry and Nate Diaz, which sees two action fighters with unique personalities mixing it up, and arguably the best heavyweight on the planet, Francis Ngannou, taking on former UFC fighter Philipe Lins.

Let's take a closer look at the rest of the card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

Rousey vs. Carano fight card, odds

- Ronda Rousey -625 vs. Gina Carano +455, women's featherweights - Mike Perry -205 vs. Nate Diaz +170, welterweights - Francis Ngannou -1350 vs. Philipe Lins +800, heavyweights - Salahdine Parnasse -1350 vs. Kenneth Cross +800, lightweights - Robelis Despaigne -345 vs. Junior dos Santos +275, heavyweights

Prediction

In many ways, this main event feels like another somewhat recent Netflix spectacle: Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul. Just as it was obvious to any impartial observer that Paul would easily win that fight, this is a fight that Rousey should never lose, and the fact that she isn't the biggest favorite on the card makes no sense. But, just like Tyson vs. Paul, it feels like a fight that comes down to how much Rousey feels like dragging Carano along.

If she wants to, Rousey can immediately use her judo, put the fight on the floor and move for a quick finish. However, much of the build-up has felt like the two women are interested in "putting on a show." With that in mind, it's still easy to side with the more complete, dynamic fighter with less time away from the sport to win, but maybe things drag into the second round. Pick: Ronda Rousey via SUB2

Join the Conversation comments

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/ronda-rousey-vs-gina-carano-fight-predictions-odds-undercard-expert-picks-netflix/)._