Sabres vs. Canadiens 2026 NHL Playoff Game 1: Predictions From Proven Model

Sabres vs. Canadiens odds, prediction, time: 2026 NHL playoff picks, Game 1 best bets from proven model

SportsLine's model reveals its Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens picks for their 2026 Stanley Cup playoff Game 1 matchup on Wednesday

By Ross Kelly

May 6, 2026 at 5:03 pm ET • 2 min read

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A second-round series in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs gets underway on Wednesday as the Buffalo Sabres host the Montreal Canadiens . Buffalo (50-23-9) defeated Boston in six games in the first round for its first series win since 2007. Montreal (48-24-10) knocked off Tampa in seven games in a series in which the teams alternated wins throughout. This is the eight postseason matchup between these franchises, with Montreal holding the 4-3 series edge.

The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. These teams split their four regular-season matchups. The latest Canadiens vs. Sabres odds have Buffalo as the -136 favorite on the money line (risk $136 to win $100), while the over/under for total goals scored is 5.5. Before making any Sabres vs. Canadiens picks, check out the NHL predictions and betting advice for Canadiens vs. Sabres from the SportsLine Projection Model .

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NHL playoffs with a +668 return on top-rated money-line  NHL picks . Anyone following its  NHL betting  advice at  sportsbooks  and on  betting apps  could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Canadiens vs. Sabres  10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NHL picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks . Here are several NHL odds and trends for Sabres vs. Canadiens:

Canadiens vs. Sabres money line:

Sabres -136, Canadiens +115

Canadiens vs. Sabres over/under:

5.5 goals

Canadiens vs. Sabres puck line:

Sabres -1.5 (+182)

Canadiens vs. Sabres picks:

See picks at SportsLine

Canadiens vs. Sabres streaming:

Fubo  (Try for free)

Top Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Sabres vs. Canadiens, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (5.5).  Each of their four regular-season matchups had at least six total goals scored, but these high-scoring affairs date back beyond that. At least six goals have been scored in eight straight meetings between these teams, with an average of 7.3 combined goals over this span.

Both teams saw Game 1 of their first-round series eclipse the total. Jakub Dobes of Montreal ranks just 29th in GAA, but Buffalo's Alex Lyon isn't much better at 28th. The model projects Cole Caufield and Tage Thompson to combine for 1.02 goals, on average, while there are five others in this game forecasted to have at least 0.30 goals. The sims call for 5.9 combined goals, making the Over the value play in over-under betting .  See the model's Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions at SportsLine .

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How to make Sabres vs. Canadiens picks

After simulating each shift of Canadiens vs. Sabres 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value.  You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NHL picks .

So who wins Sabres vs. Canadiens, and which side of the money line has all the value?  Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Canadiens vs. Sabres money line to back, all from the model that has returned over $550 on top-rated NHL picks , and find out.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/sabres-canadiens-odds-prediction-line-time-2026-nhl-playoff-picks-game-1-best-bets/)._