SportsLine's Best Bets: Thunder vs. Spurs, top MLB games, and more

The NBA Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Spurs has been the series of overreaction.

After Victor Wembanyama had 41 points and 24 rebounds in San Antonio's Game 1 victory, the narrative was that he was an unstoppable force for which Oklahoma City had no answer. After the Thunder responded with back-to-back wins, the storyline was that the defending champs had too much depth for the Spurs. San Antonio answered with a 21-point blowout in Game 4.

And after Oklahoma City hounded Wembanyama in Game 5, limiting him to a series-low 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in a 127-114 win, the narrative entering Thursday night's Game 6 is that the Thunder have found the answer in defending Wembanyama and that he is too fatigued from playing so many minutes in this series.

So, if the pattern holds, expect a big game from the Spurs' 7-foot-4 big man when the teams collide at the Frost Bank Center. San Antonio needs to win to avoid elimination and force a Game 7 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City can advance to the NBA Finals and a matchup with the New York Knicks with a victory on Thursday. The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites against the Thunder.

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While San Antonio-Oklahoma City is the marquee attraction on Thursday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes three prime-time  MLB  games. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Thursday, May 28. All times Eastern.

NBA best bets, where to watch

Thunder at Spurs

Time:  8:30 p.m. |  Location:  San Antonio |  TV:  NBC/Peacock |  Stream:   Fubo  (Try for free)

SportsLine pick -- Model:  Under 219.5  | Expert:  De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 total rebounds + assists -122 (Mike Barner)

Isaiah Hartenstein was key in Oklahoma City's defending of Wembanyama in Game 4. When Wembanyama was defended by Hartenstein, the Spurs' star shot 3-of-11. He was 4-of-15 for the entire game. His 26.7% shooting percentage on the night was his third-worst mark of the entire season. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every  NBA  game 10,000 times, says there's a 63.6% chance the teams combine for 219 points or fewer and assigns a 'B' grade to Under 219.5. Meanwhile, SportsLine's Mike Barner notes that Fox has at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in all three games he has played this series. "He hasn't been scoring a ton, but he has contributed in other areas," he told SportsLine.

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MLB best bets, where to watch

Blue Jays at Orioles

Time:  6:35 p.m. |  Location:  Baltimore |  TV:  MLB.TV |  Stream:   Fubo  (Try for free)

SportsLine pick -- Model:  Blue Jays +109

Toronto and Baltimore open a four-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Lefty Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound against the Orioles , who have struggled against southpaws this season. They rank 21st in OPS (.663) and 23rd in slugging (.357) in the majors against lefties. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will face former teammate Chris Bassitt , who has a 5.59 ERA in the month of May. The SportsLine Projection Model says Toronto has a 49% chance to win and gives a 'B' grade to the Blue Jays money line (+109).

Cubs at Pirates

Time:  6:40 p.m. |  Location:  Pittsburgh |  TV:  MLB.TV |  Stream:   Fubo  (Try for free)

SportsLine pick -- Model:  Over 7.5  | Expert:  First 5 Innings Pirates -0.5 -119 (Larry Hartstein)

Even with Paul Skenes (6-4, 3.00) struggling recently, Pittsburgh still has the pitching edge on against Chicago and starter Colin Rea (4-3, 4.83). SportsLine's Larry Hartstein notes that Rea has given up a .950 OPS and .568 slugging percentage to current Pirates (81 at-bats) and has a 5.09 ERA in his career against Pittsburgh. The SportsLine Projection Model does not see a low-scoring game. It says there's a 64.3% chance the teams combine for eight runs or more and assigns a 'B' grade to Over 7.5.

Astros at Rangers

Time:  8:05 p.m. |  Location:  Arlington, Texas |  TV:  MLB.TV |  Stream:   Fubo  (Try for free)

SportsLine pick -- Model:  Astros +119

Houston and Texas conclude a four-game series when the in-state rivals square off at Globe Life Field. The Astros' Spencer Arrighetti (6-1, 1.32) has been the team's best starter since being called up last month because of injuries to the pitching staff. Over his last two starts, he has thrown 12 1/3 scoreless innings while giving up just three hits. That includes 7 1/3 scoreless innings while giving up only one hit in a 2-0 victory over the Rangers on May 15. The SportsLine Projection Model says Houston has a 45% chance to win and gives a 'C' grade to the Astros money line (+119).

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Looking ahead

NHL: Canadiens at Hurricanes

Time:  8 p.m. Friday |  Location:  Raleigh, N.C. |  TV:  TNT/truTV/HBO Max |  Stream:   Fubo  (Try for free)

SportsLine pick -- Model:  Canadiens +190

Carolina can eliminate Montreal and earn a spot in the Stanley Cup Final when the teams play Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final at the Lenovo Center. Even though the Hurricanes have won each of the last three games, Canadiens rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes has almost singlehandedly kept his team in the series. He has a .919 save percentage in the series on 136 shots. By contrast, Carolina netminder Frederik Andersen has a .859 save percentage and has faced just 64 shots. The SportsLine Projection Model says Montreal has a 44% chance to win Game 5, which is enough for the model to assign a strong 'A' grade to the Montreal money line (+190).

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/todays-top-games-to-watch-best-bets-odds-thunder-look-to-close-out-spurs-mlb-and-more/)._