Tarik Skubal Returns: AL Cy Young Race Impact

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal returns from a roughly six-week absence to take the mound Saturday against the division rival  Guardians . There's plenty of drama surrounding the quick return, given the NanoScope procedure that has Skubal back on the mound less than two months from elbow surgery -- not to mention the Tigers hanging around on the periphery of the American League wild-card picture with Skubal set to hit free agency after the season. The trade rumors will swirl in the coming weeks unless the Tigers stay hot.

There's another matter, too.

Remember, Skubal was the back-to-back Cy Young winner in 2024-25, the first to accomplish that in the AL since Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.

Skubal entered the season looking to become the 11th pitcher ever to win three Cy Youngs. How many have won three straight? It's a short list. Very short! Randy Johnson won four in a row from 1999 to 2002 in the National League. Greg Maddux also won four straight in the NL from 1992-95. It's never happened on the AL side.

Skubal missed about seven starts, so it's an uphill battle. The thing is, unlike on the senior circuit, the AL Cy Young field right now isn't overly impressive, leaving a small opening for a monster Skubal run.

Here are the odds, via Caesars , for the top five right now:

- Cam Schlittler , Yankees , +135 - Dylan Cease , Blue Jays , +300 - Jacob deGrom , Rangers , +500 - Gavin Williams , Guardians , +1000 - Bryan Woo , Mariners , +1600

Let's run through each of those five, along with Skubal.

Cam Schlittler, +135

If voting were held right now, Schlittler would win the award in his first full season. He's 7-3 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 82 innings. Even after his excellent rookie year, during which he saw 14 regular-season starts along with two playoff outings (one of which was historic), Schlittler is still exceeding expectations.

Workload is going to matter in this race and it'll be interesting to see how the Yankees deal with his. Schlittler only threw 120 ⅔ innings in 2024. Last year, between the minors, majors and playoffs, he accumulated 164. That isn't an overly low total, but the Yankees also have World Series aspirations in a weak American League. He's currently on pace for 198 innings. Are the Yankees intending to push him that far and then hoping for, say, five or six full-strength starts in October? I'd be beyond shocked. The best bet is they'd love to keep him down in the 160s before the playoffs.

There's also the chance that the increased regular-season workload gets to Schlittler and causes second-half regression.

That could really loom large here.

Dylan Cease, +300

The man just loves pitching in even seasons. Cease finished in second in Cy Young voting in 2022 and fourth in 2024 around down seasons in 2023 and 2025. Through 12 starts in 2026, he's 3-3 with a 2.91 ERA (152 ERA+), 1.16 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 68 innings. Walks will always be an issue with Cease, but he is adept at pitching around them when he's going well.

He's a strong candidate.

Jacob deGrom, +500

This would be a hell of a story. deGrom is a two-time Cy Young winner, along with a third-place finish and four other top-10 finishes. He returned from Tommy John surgery to have an All-Star season in 2025 at age 37. Through 13 starts this season, just a few days shy of his 38th birthday, deGrom is 5-4 with a 3.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 84 strikeouts in 70 ⅔ innings. He went over 170 innings last season, so there's real hope of approaching 200 innings. The injury history remains worrisome -- last year was the first time he made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019 -- but the stuff and pedigree are there.

deGrom feels like a quality prediction right now.

Gavin Williams, +1000

The improvement has been steady over the last few years as Williams continues to be more efficient with his pitches and cuts down on walks. He's 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.10 WHIP and has struck out 99 against 28 walks in 86 ⅔ innings. The walk rate is the lowest of his career by a decent margin, but still a bit high here and could limit him. He threw 167 ⅔ innings last season, so he is certainly capable of working up toward 190 this year.

He's a legitimate candidate.

Bryan Woo, +1600

He's been torched in his last two outings, having allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in 11 ⅓ innings. Those were road starts, of course, and an advantage Woo has is his home ballpark. For whatever reason, T-Mobile Park as an extreme pitchers' park hasn't caught quite on the way Coors Field as a hitters' paradise has -- both in generally making Mariners pitchers a bit overrated and hitters a bit underrated.

Woo is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's struck out 79 hitters in 82 innings. These odds are ridiculous when you compare him with others on this list -- especially when looking at the splits (2.37 home ERA vs. 5.93 on the road).

I do not see Woo as an obstacle to Skubal in this race.

Tarik Skubal, +2800

He's behind here, there's no doubt. His seven-start foundation is good, though, at 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA (159 ERA+) and 45 strikeouts to just six walks in 43 ⅓ innings. To provide a good idea of where the workload intersects with his other numbers and how it compares to the rest of the league, Skubal is 18th in FanGraphs' WAR among AL pitchers at 1.6, but only seven pitchers are at 2.0 or above and only Schlittler is above 3.0.

Is there a real chance for Skubal to pull off the rare threepeat?

Let's do the math. Skubal made 18 starts from June 12 through the end of the season last year. If he makes 18 more this season, that would put him at 25. If we take his numbers from those last 18 starts last season and put them together with what we've seen so far this year, here's what we'd have:

15-8, 2.37 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 181 K, 32 BB, 155 ⅓ IP, 4.9 WAR

Obviously, Skubal isn't going to put up the exact same stats he did this time around. He might be worse, rendering this conversation moot. What if he's better and the rest of the field relatively collapses? This is a very tall order, but it isn't off the table. In fact, would it surprise anyone?

Perhaps the biggest concern for anyone looking to bet on Skubal would be the Tigers trading him to a National League team. That just adds to the intrigue, right?

Others?

The field is pretty open if I'm right about Schlittler's workload constraints as we head toward the second half. Even if I'm not, is he really going to be this great all season? That's a big ask.

There are a few more names worth monitoring, too.

- Davis Martin (+2000) of the White Sox is 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 78 ⅓ innings. is this a true age-29 breakout? It could be. I wouldn't take him over Skubal right now. - Rays righty Drew Rasmussen (+2200) and lefty Shane McClanahan (+2500) are great and probably limited in usage by the Rays. It's possible to win a Cy Young under this front office -- Blake Snell did it in 2018 -- but it's an uphill battle. I'd take neither before Skubal at this point. - Joe Ryan (+2800) of the Twins is 4-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 82 ⅓ innings. He's good. I'm still taking Skubal before him at this juncture.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/tarik-skubal-american-league-cy-young-odds/)._