UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa — Predictions, Odds, and Expert Picks

UFC Fight Night -- Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa: Predictions, fight card, odds and expert picks

A pair of featherweight contenders are set to battle it out at the Meta Apex on Saturday

By Shakiel Mahjouri

May 15, 2026 at 2:48 pm ET • 3 min read

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Another UFC veteran defends his spot in the pecking order this Saturday. Arnold Allen looks to protect his top 10 featherweight ranking against Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

UFC Fight Nights have largely served as proving grounds for rising contenders this year. The next generation has had mixed success. For every Lone'er Kavanagh and Kevin Vallejos that rose to the occasion, there's a Youssef Zalal or Chris Duncan who fell short. This week, Costa looks to break through against a divisional stalwart.

Allen (20-4) was predicted to be a major player in the featherweight division. He was undefeated in his first 10 UFC fights, beating names like Gilbert Melendez and Dan Hooker. Activity and injuries were his biggest obstacles. It seems those layoffs finally caught up to him. He enters Saturday's main event with one win in his last four appearances. His approach to fixing it isn't nuanced. He fights Costa with the stubbornness of someone repairing a TV by banging their fist against it.

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"I'm pissed off. I need to get things right," Allen told CBS Sports. "The decisions are out of my control. I feel like I'm better. I had some ring rust, a lay off and was coming off an injury.

"I don't really think about it because I beat Movsar. The Jean Silva fight, I feel like I won. I'm 1-3, but I feel like it's 3-1. The only one where I feel like I really lost was to Max Holloway."

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Costa (26-7) turned heads, literally and figuratively, with a spinning back kick knockout in his last performance. He was favored to beat Dan Ige, but few could've predicted how assertive he'd be. Ige has traded leather with some of the division's top finishers -- Diego Lopes, Josh Emmett, "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung and Edson Barboza. None of them stopped Ige. It took 30 fights over 12 years before Costa put him away in the first round.

"I said all along that I'd knock Dan Ige out," Costa told CBS Sports  through a Portuguese interpreter. "I didn't mean any disrespect. I knew that our styles matched. I'm saying the same thing about Arnold Allen. People think that I talk too much, but really, I'm only talking 30 percent. Imagine all the other work that we're doing with my team. I have a really strong team.'"

Let's take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Favorite Underdog Weightclass

Arnold Allen -148

Melquizael Costa +124

Featherweight

Daniel Santos -162

Doo Ho Choi +136

Featherweight

Malcolm Wellmaker -340

Juan Diaz +270

Bantamweight

Modestas Bukauskas -340 Christian Edwards +270 Light heavyweight Benardo Sopaj -155 Timothy Cuamba +130 Bantamweight Khaos Williams -120 Nikolay Veretennikov +100 Welterweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: May 16 |  Start time:  8 p.m. ET (Main card) | 5 p.m. ET (Preliminary card) Location:  Meta APEX -- Las Vegas Stream:   Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa : Allen's loss to Silva went entirely as I predicted. Allen has never been knocked out or submitted, but his tendency for split decisions cost him against a powerful, volume-heavy fighter. I'm not convinced Costa can do what Silva couldn't. Costa is indeed the first person to stop Ige; however, Ige has far more mileage on him than Allen. The "Almighty" Allen has the five-round experience and defensive sensibilities to stretch this fight. Over time, he'll make better reads against a fighter with defensive exploits. Pick: Allen via unanimous decision

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/ufc/news/ufc-fight-night-predictions-arnold-allen-melquizael-costa-odds-expert-picks/)._