UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje Picks & Predictions From 10,000 Simulations

The South Lawn of the White House serves as the staging area for UFC Freedom 250. The event will help commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States. The card will feature the main event, a lightweight title bout between champion Ilia Topuria and interim champion Justin Gaethje. Topuria is coming off a knockout win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025, while Gaethje defeated Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision at UFC 324 this past January to win the interim UFC lightweight championship.

The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on  Paramount+  from the White House. The latest UFC Freedom 250 odds list Topuria the -560 favorite (risk $560 to win $100), while Gaethje comes back at +380. The over/under for total rounds is 2.5. In the co-main event, Alex Pereira battles Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight interim title. Gane is the slight -112 favorite, with Pereira listed at -108. Before locking in any UFC Freedom 250 picks, make sure you see the UFC Freedom 250 predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure's proven computer model .

Paramount+  is the only place to  stream EVERY UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live , at no additional cost. A subscription also gives you access to other sports content, including the UEFA Champions League, college basketball, the NFL and Big Ten on CBS and countless movies and shows. Plans start at just $8.99 per month, so  sign up right here .

Visit our  DraftKings promo code  review to see their latest offers and get started.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting . It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on  Paramount+ , hitting both Justin Gaethje to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

Now, the model has analyzed Topuria vs. Gaethje from every angle and revealed its top  betting  picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them .

Topuria vs. Gaethje preview

Topuria, 29, has been a dominant fighter throughout his career. In 17 career matches, he is unbeaten, including seven wins by knockout, eight by submission and two by decision. He has won each of his last three fights by knockout. In his return to lightweight last June, he earned Performance of the Night in his knockout win over Oliveira.

He began his professional career in 2015, and is a former UFC featherweight champion, becoming the first Georgian and Spanish fighter to win a UFC title. He is No. 2 in the UFC men's pound-for-pound rankings. With titles in both the lightweight and featherweight divisions, he became the 10th multi-division champion in UFC history.  Check out SportsLine to see the model's picks and analysis .

Gaethje, 37, has also had a lot of success in his professional MMA career. In 32 career matches, he has compiled a 27-5 mark. He has registered 20 wins by knockout, one by submission and six by decision. He became the first fighter in UFC history to win the interim title twice and is also a former UFC "BMF" titleholder. He formerly competed in the lightweight division of the World Series of Fighting, winning the lightweight crown.

He is a former collegiate wrestler for the University of Northern Colorado, where he was a Division I All-American. After competing in the WSOF, he joined UFC in May 2017. He became the oldest fighter to win a UFC lightweight title at 37 years and 71 days. He is a 10-time Fight of the Night honoree, and has also earned five Performance of the Night honors.  You can only see the model's UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine .

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje predictions

One of the model's top UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje picks: The model projects the Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit heavyweight bout will go Over 1.5 rounds at +160.

"Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing," McClure told SportsLine. "The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in."  See who else to back here .

New to sports trading? Visit our  Kalshi promo code  review to see their latest offers and get started.

How to make UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje picks

The model has six other picks from bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing multiple underdogs, as well as a UFC best bet that returns nearly +500. You can see who it is only at SportsLine .

What UFC Freedom 250 best bets should you be all over ?   Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25 , and find out.

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje main fight card, odds

See picks at SportsLine . (Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)

Ilia Topuria (-500) vs. Justin Gaethje (+380) Cyril Gane (-112) vs. Alex Pereira (-108) Sean O'Malley (-455) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+350) Josh Hokit (-440) vs. Derrick Lewis (+340) Mauricio Ruffy (-600) vs. Michael Chandler (+440) Bo Nickal (-310) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+250) Diego Lopes (-155) vs. Steve Garcia (+130)

Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/ufc/news/ufc-white-house-odds-props-freedom-250-card-topuria-gaethje-picks-predictions/)._