2026 NFL Week 1: Bold Predictions Include Tagovailoa Outperforming Rodgers

The NFL is back, which means our weekly bold predictions column at CBS Sports is too! Just when we think we know what's going to happen around the league, surprises happen every week.

Just look at the Super Bowl preseason favorite Los Angeles Rams . They faceplanted in a 27-7 Week 1 defeat against the San Francisco 49ers in Australia, marking the largest Week 1 loss (20 points) by the preseason Super Bowl favorite in recorded history (odds have been available for the last 50 seasons), per CBS Sports Research. The defeat also marked the fewest points the Rams have scored in a game with 2025 NFL MVP Matthew Stafford as their quarterback. Even 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett couldn't do anything to slow San Francisco down, registering his fourth career game without a tackle despite playing 39 snaps against the 49ers.

What other head-scratching events will go down in Week 1? Let's take a look at five bold predictions.

Tua Tagovailoa outduels Aaron Rodgers, helps lead Falcons to upset road win

Pittsburgh was the site of Tua Tagovailoa's final start as a Miami Dolphins , a 28-15 loss in Week 15. Tagovailoa didn't play terribly, throwing for 253 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 22-of-28 passing, while taking four sacks. However, Aaron Rodgers was more efficient with 224 yards passing and two passing touchdowns on 23 of 27 passing while taking three sacks.

Fortunately for the Falcons and their loaded cast of playmakers ( Bijan Robinson , Kyle Pitts and Drake London ), the Steelers defense had a 20.9% missed tackle rate in 2025, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL . New Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Patrick Graham produced a 27.9% missed tackle rate with the  Las Vegas Raiders defense last season, the second-highest rate in the league. Yards-after-catch opportunities will be available for Tagovailoa and friends.

Tagovailoa will return to Pittsburgh on Sunday, and if he's able to play after suffering an oblique injury in practice on Thursday , he'll outplay Rodgers to shock the Steelers en route to a Falcons victory. This, of course, would be jaw-dropping after watching his 2026 preseason.

> Tua Tagovailoa's Falcons debut: - fumble on his 2nd snap - zero passes over 5 air yards - 3/5 for 22 yards with all four targets being underneath routes to Kyle Pitts pic.twitter.com/2tmX2KjLTG — Wild Card Sports (@wildcardnet) August 15, 2026

Josh Allen doesn't get smoked by the Texans for a third year in a row

Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks playing today, but the Houston Texans have his number. In the 2024 season, Allen totaled a career-low 30% completion percentage (9-30), the worst by any quarterback with 30-plus pass attempts in a game since 1992, per CBS Sports Research. Last year, the Texans sacked Allen a career-worst eight times, with Will Anderson Jr . (2.5) and Danielle Hunter (2.0) becoming the first duo with multiple sacks each against Allen in the same game.

Anderson and Hunter's dynamic has kept Allen in the pocket and under pressure, allowing the Texans to avoid blitzing and keep a fully stocked second level in coverage. Allen will buck this trend of getting his face caved in by Houston by finding new WR1 DJ Moore early and often, as well as relying on the screen game at unforeseen levels to turn the pressure level down. This will free up Allen to play a less chaotic brand of football and settle into the game, thus allowing him to have an average to above-average game against the Texans for the first time in years.

Trey Hendrickson goes off for multiple sacks in Ravens debut

Four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Trey Hendrickson totaled just 4.0 sacks in 2025 because he was limited to seven games thanks to a hip injury. Two years ago in 2024, the last time he was fully healthy, he led the league with 17.5 sacks. Hendrickson is now 31 years old and fresh off season-ending surgery. However, he'll announce his return to action with a bang, with a couple of sacks of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones in Week 1.

Jones is returning from a torn Achilles, and Hendrickson is coming back from a hip/core muscle injury. Hendrickson finds his footing faster and sacks Jones twice.

Quinshon Judkins runs for over 75 yards vs. Jaguars' top run defense

Not only were the Jacksonville Jaguars the owners of the No. 1 run defense (85.6 rushing yards per game allowed) in 2025, but they were also just the fifth team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to not allow an individual player to rush for 75 yards against them in a game.

Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins ran for 827 yards as a rookie in 2025 despite the corpse of Joe Flacco , third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel and fifth-round rookie Shedeur Sanders all starting at quarterback last season. He's used to facing loaded boxes and opponents going all out to take away his production. Judkins will summit the mountain that is the Jaguars' run defense and break the 75-yard mark against them this week after no player did that against them in 2025.

De'Von Achane erupts for 150-plus yards vs. Raiders

No team is tanking in 2026 quite like the Miami Dolphins. They are paying more money for players not on their roster — a combined $183 million dead money cap hit — than they are for players on their roster, a combined $104 million cap hit for their active roster. That's right: 60.7% of the Dolphins' 2026 salary cap is dead money. If that sounds unprecedented, that's because it is. No other team on record, since Spotrac began tracking this statistic in 2011, is above 45%, per CBS Sports Research.

That's how quarterback  Malik Willis ' No. 1 wide receiver (in terms of career receiving yards) ends up being longtime  Dallas Cowboys  depth piece  Jalen Tolbert  with 1,093. Miami thought ahead in this regard and made sure Pro Bowl running back  De'Von Achane  was paid (four years, $64 million with $27.378 million guaranteed) before it asks him to run the ball over and over again this season. Achane led the NFL in yards per carry (5.7) last season, and he averages the second-highest career yards per carry number (5.62) by a running back in league history (minimum 500 carries).

Achane is going to get ample opportunity to pursue the rushing title, and he'll start that pursuit against a Raiders defense that missed 27.9% of their tackle attempts, the second-worst rate in the league last season. Yes, Las Vegas remade its front seven with the free-agent signings of  Kwity Paye ,  Nakobe Dean  and  Quay Walker . But their defensive coordinator, Rob Leonard, served as the team's defensive line coach and defensive run-game coordinator last season. Leonard had a heavy hand in coaching a defense that struggled to tackle consistently in 2025, and Achane will take advantage of that in a big way to kick off the 2026 season with at least 150 yards rushing.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/week-1-2026-bold-predictions-tua-tagovailoa-aaron-rodgers/)._