AL East X-Factors: Three Players Who Could Determine Division Title and Playoff Berths

The 2026 MLB playoffs are less than three weeks away. The Rays have spent much of the year atop the American League East. The Yankees scuffled for some of the summer but still find themselves in the first Wild Card spot with Aaron Judge back in the lineup. The Red Sox , meanwhile, have pulled off one of the more improbable runs in baseball, going 48-21 since June 25.

But there is still plenty to be decided.

The division remains up for grabs (the Yankees trail the Rays by three games as the weekend begins), postseason roles are still being sorted out, and, perhaps most importantly, each team has questions that will need to be answered before October.

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Here's a look at the X-factors that could shape the final two weeks in the AL East.

Rays: Can the pitching machine withstand one last stress test?

The Yankees trail the Rays by three games heading into Friday in the race for the top spot AL East. And although both teams have just 16 regular-season games remaining, New York isn't giving up hope on the division.

And for good reason.

The Rays have the tougher schedule, including series against the Astros , Phillies and Red Sox, along with a four-game set against the Yankees. Tampa Bay is 6-3 against New York this season, meaning just one win in those four games would clinch the season series and the tiebreaker.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have a much softer landing. Excluding the Rays, they will face the Mets , beginning Friday, along with the Twins , Orioles and Diamondbacks . With Aaron Judge now back in the mix, the Yankees are confident they can make up some ground.

But let's stick on the Rays for now.

Their pitching department, under pitching coach Kyle Snyder, has been viewed as one of the best in the sport for quite some time. Attrition, though, has been their nemesis.

Shane McClanahan TB • SP • #18

ERA 3.36 WHIP 1.12 IP 118 BB 39 K 106 View Profile

The recent injury to Shane McClanahan , who went down with forearm tightness on Sept. 4, is the latest example. McClanahan previously dealt with a back injury this summer that kept him out for roughly three weeks until mid-August. The forearm issue, however, should be especially concerning, considering his history. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery and dealt with a plethora of elbow issues throughout his career.

But the Rays are known for piecing things together and will, indeed, have to do that again. Starting pitching is a necessity, and if there's one X-factor in all of this, it's Freddy Peralta .

Peralta, who was acquired from the Mets at the deadline, has had a forgettable season after finishing fifth in National League Cy Young voting last year.

Freddy Peralta TB • SP • #51

ERA 4.82 WHIP 1.36 IP 153 BB 55 K 142 View Profile

He had a 4.99 ERA with the Mets this year and has a 4.35 ERA with the Rays. His last three starts, though, have been encouraging. Peralta has gone six innings in all three, yielding just two runs over that span.

He found his release point again, and it has paid dividends, with some of his stuff seeing an uptick. Batters are hitting just .200 against his fastball, for example, during that three-start stretch.

Historically, the Rays have been a great regular-season team, but come playoff time, they typically haven't been viewed as that same threat. Pitching has always been their calling card, though, and Peralta will have to hold up his end for the Rays to hold on to the division.

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Yankees: Is this Anthony Volpe's moment?

Maybe this is the exact moment for Volpe to make his mark. Sure, having Judge back in the lineup is a huge boost for an offense that struggled all summer, but Volpe could play a huge role here as well.

Jazz Chisholm , for all the ridicule, was still one of the more productive second basemen in all of baseball. Over the last three years, Chisholm ranks second in fWAR (13.7), third in homers (93) and first in stolen bases (133). Despite a down offensive season this year, he has 19 homers and has still managed to swipe 40 bags.

Yet Volpe, now playing second base after being called back up from the minors, could provide the Yankees with a more consistent floor than Chisholm's high highs and low lows.

Volpe made some adjustments while at Triple-A, mainly holding his hands higher in his setup in an effort to make more consistent contact. It paid off Thursday evening against the Rockies , when he racked up three hits, including a grand slam that was followed by a curtain call at Yankee Stadium.

> When the bat meets the ball and goes over the wall, thats A. Volpe 🙌 Grand Slam for Anthony! pic.twitter.com/phCscPtgdV — New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 11, 2026

He told reporters afterward that he didn't expect to be back at the big-league level this year.

Well, he is.

And this is the moment Volpe can provide some consistency and help give New York a chance to chase down the Rays for the division.

Red Sox: Is the summer magic wearing off?

The Red Sox need to be healthy.

The Red Sox's run this summer, storming back from 14 games under .500 to rip off a 15-game winning streak and then another nine-game streak, will be something Red Sox faithful remember for years to come. That they now sit firmly in the second wild-card spot, six games ahead of the Guardians , is certainly not something anyone could have predicted. Boston, at 80-67, is too far back to win the division, however.

Still, it will be interesting to see what this Boston club looks like over the final two weeks of the season and heading into the postseason. Health has become a question mark, leading one to wonder whether the magical summer came at a price.

First baseman Willson Contreras , the team's most productive hitter, has been out since Aug. 31 with a hamstring strain. Similarly, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela , arguably the best at his position in the AL, has been out since the start of September with a quad strain.

Contreras will begin a rehab assignment Friday and could rejoin the club as soon as Saturday. Rafaela could return next week. The Sox need them both.

Caleb Durbin , who was one of the hottest hitters in baseball for much of the summer, has seemingly hit a wall, batting .182 over his last 15 games after posting a .301/.370/.473 slash line with an .845 OPS and 11 homers over his previous 72 contests.

He's battled a hand injury all season and has looked sluggish down the stretch. The fascinating part will be seeing how a player who has been an anchor of sorts for the Red Sox this year holds up come playoff time.

That question will apply to others, too, though for different reasons. Garrett Crochet has missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, while Tanner Houck is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is now on a rehab assignment. How much either pitcher can give the Red Sox, and how effective they can be after such long layoffs, are questions Boston will have to answer before October.

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Crochet, of course, is the main focus of the two. His return isn't expected until the very end of the regular season, and he is likely to serve in a bullpen role once the playoffs begin, with little time left to build him back up as a starter.

The X-factor for the Red Sox down the stretch is health. Magic has a time limit.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/al-east-x-factors-yankees-rays-red-sox/)._