Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Jose Soriano Regression Creates Questions

Jose Soriano  struggled yet again against the Tigers , giving up three runs in five innings while walking four.

And it's a good example of why early-season analysis is so tough. Soriano's first six starts of the season were arguably the best six-game stretch of his career – he had never had a lower ERA over six games than his 0.24 mark, while his 9.3% walk rate was very nearly the best of his career, and his 31% strikeout rate was the best he's managed over a six-game stretch.

And now he has a seven-game stretch directly following that up with a 5.42 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 12.1% walk rate. Which is to say, a seven-game stretch where he … basically looks like Jose Soriano again. Does that completely wipe away what he did in those first six starts? Not necessarily, especially since there were real changes, such as him throwing his four-seamer a lot more.

But we're talking about a 27-year-old in his fourth season who has mostly been a pretty mediocre pitcher for Fantasy, so our assumption should probably be that the six games were the outlier and we're seeing some regression. That doesn't mean I think Soriano will be hopeless or useless moving forward. But there's a reason I was always a bit shy about moving him up as aggressively as some in our audience would have wanted after the first month of the season.

Sometimes, being slow to react leaves you missing out on those early-season breakouts that can win you your league. But it can also help you avoid overreacting, and in this case, that might be exactly what happened.

Now, here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action around MLB :

Thursday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Wednesday's action:

Dustin May , SP, Cardinals (32%) – It's always nice to see May missing bats like he did Wednesday – he limits damage on contact so well that when he's actually getting strikeouts, he can look like a legitimate ace, as he did in limiting the Brewers to just one earned run over seven innings while striking out nine. He actually ended up settling for the tough-luck loss despite carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning, and he's now down to a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his past nine starts. The strikeout rate overall remains pretty mediocre, and I'm past the point of expecting that to change, outside of random spikes like Wednesday's. But he's limiting walks well enough that the Cardinals' strong defense behind him can carry a heavy load, and it's certainly working these days. I don't think May is a must-start pitcher in the long run, but I'm happy to start him against the lowly Rangers next week.

Sam Antonacci , 2B, White Sox (45%) – I think Antonacci might just be very good, in the way we hoped Luke Keaschall would be this season. He probably isn't going to be a consistent power threat, but he isn't a total zero there, and the rest of the skill set looks really strong – his .287 batting average comes with a .315 xBA, and his ability to draw HBPs (he has 11 in 38 games) will continue to give him a sneaky boost in OBP. And now that he's running a lot more aggressively (seven steals in 20 games in May), I think he could be a very useful option in points or Roto.

Trevor McDonald , SP, Giants (28%) – There was an interesting wrinkle for McDonald Wednesday night, as he used his changeup more often than we've seen before and generated four of his 10 whiffs with it. He looked like a primarily sinker/slider pitcher before this one, but if the changeup can be a consistent weapon, it just adds another dimension for a guy who has looked pretty interested so far. I'm still skeptical that he can keep succeeding against MLB hitters when he has struggled so much in the high minors, but maybe he's just benefiting from getting away from the Pacific Coast League. McDonald is a tough streamer to trust against the Brewers in Milwaukee next week, but he's an interesting option at home, at least.

David Sandlin , RP, CHW (4%) – Sandlin is pretty interesting, especially with RP eligibility on CBS Fantasy. He has struggled to stay healthy at times in his career and has really struggled to throw strikes this season, but he also has good stuff that led to seven swinging strikes on 61 pitches in his one, including three on his four-seamer. If that pitch is going to sit closer to 97-98 than 96-97 moving forward, it makes the whole package even more interesting, and there could be real strikeout upside here if that's the case. For now, he's just a deep-league target, but I'm intrigued.

Michael Burrows , SP, Astros (24%) – I remain intrigued by Burrows. Please note that is not the same thing as saying I think Burrows is good, though I do think he's talented. And maybe this is a start he can build on. He threw his four-seamer more than usual in this start, and unlike how most of the season has gone, it was actually effective for him, probably because he did a better job of hitting his spots at the top of the zone with the pitch, where it can be effective. If that pitch can at least be useful for him, there's a lot of room for Burrows to take a step forward with his trio of solid secondary pitches, but one start doesn't make for a trend. Yet. I'm keeping an eye on him, but wouldn't view him as anything more than a deep streamer for next week's two-start tilt against the Pirates and A's.

Wednesday's standouts

Cristopher Sanchez , Phillies @SD: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – There isn't much to add here, because Sanchez is already pretty much the consensus No. 2 pitcher in Fantasy, but it would feel kind of silly to not mention him when he just finished the month of May with 39 shutout innings, 39 strikeouts,  and only three walks. He's absurdly locked in right now and has the 11th-longest single-season scoreless streak in MLB history at 44.2 innings.

Gunnar Henderson , SS, Orioles – Henderson needed a big game, and he got it Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with a couple of homers. He has been hitting for okay power, but with his pulled-air rate way up to 27%, it seems to have jacked up his swing otherwise. He's lost nearly three mph on his average exit velocity while also striking out at a career-worst 28% rate, so clearly the approach isn't working for him. I haven't moved Henderson down much in my rankings because I have faith in him overcoming what's gone wrong so far this season. Let's hope this is the start of him figuring things out.

Gavin Williams , Guardians vs. WAS: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4  K – Last week I noted that the only issue for Williams this season has been the amount of hard contact he has allowed, and this time around he goes out and allowed 19 batted balls, with just three carrying an expected batting average over .500. That's a pretty solid way to respond. I still worry there will be some inherent fluctuation in his production, but all in all, you should be very happy you have Williams on your team, if you do.

Connelly Early , Red Sox vs. ATL: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Given the opponent, this might be Early's most impressive start of the season. He's on a nice little run lately, allowing a 1.78 ERA with 26 strikeouts and just five walks over his past four starts – the improved control is especially notable given how much Early struggled with walks over the first month-plus of the season. Plus control was a big part of what made Early so effective last season, and if he's back to throwing strikes consistently, he could really take off. It's too early to say, but I'm certainly keeping him in my lineup moving forward.

Bubba Chandler , Pirates vs. CHC: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Is it weird to say I'm almost encouraged by this start because at least Chandler threw strikes? Look, I said "almost," okay, I'm not actually going that far. But I believe in the stuff and think Chandler is going to be a great pitcher at some point if he figures out how to throw strikes consistently, so I'll take any movement in the right direction in that regard. I'm still absolutely not ready to trust Chandler in my starting lineup, especially with a two-start week against the Astros and Braves on the way.

Bryce Elder , Braves @BOS: 3.1 IP 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Maybe it's just one bad start. I'm inclined to chalk it up to that. But Elder has basically no track record of being a useful Fantasy option outside of his first 11 starts this season, so I do expect him to regress to the point where he's dropped in most leagues at some point. Does that mean this is the start of that? Maybe not, but I would be trying hard to sell high on him right now if I could, while his ERA still starts with a two.

Connor Prielipp , Twins @CHW: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – That's now a couple of poor starts in a row for Prielipp. I continue to be pretty intrigued by his skill set, but with the limitations on his usage, he doesn't have a particularly large margin for error, which makes stashing him tough to justify when things aren't going well. I don't think this is the last we'll see of Prielipp as a Fantasy option, but I'm totally fine dropping him at this point.

Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-jose-sorianos-regression-raises-questions/)._