NFL Week 1 Picks: Rodgers Beats Falcons, Broncos Upset Chiefs

Welcome to the 2026 season, and congratulations to you, because out of all the picks columns you could click on at CBS Sports, you chose the one featuring the analyst that was the company's top against-the-spread artist in 2025. I went 148-122-2 ATS in 2025 to capture the CBS Sports crown, and now I have a target on my back like the Seattle Seahawks .

Week 1 in the NFL is probably my favorite betting week of the year. It's your preconceived notions vs. the sportsbook, and sometimes, you can rake in the dough. There are other years where you can be humbled, but it's all part of the experience. This is one of three gambling pieces you'll see from me every week this year. I go head to head with my friend and coworker Jared Dubin on the biggest games of the week. That comes out every Thursday morning. Then, every weekend I post a column on anytime TD scorers.

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 ATS record: 148-122-2 2025 straight up record: 181-90-1

Top five picks ATS record: 0-0 Overall ATS record: 0-0 Straight up record: 0-0

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

The Atlanta Falcons rushing to sign Tua Tagovailoa was one of the weirdest moments of the offseason. I mean, they POUNCED on him. To the surprise of very few, the former Dolphin has not looked great through preseason and in practice. I think Michael Penix Jr . would be starting if he were healthy. The Falcons have a great cast of weapons with Bijan Robinson , Drake London and Kyle Pitts , but if you don't have a quarterback, does it even matter?

On Thursday, Tagovailoa suffered what was described as an oblique injury in practice, and Cooper Rush could be in line to start in his place. I'm not sure that helps the Falcons' case very much. The line shifted two more points in favor of the Steelers.

Atlanta is 0-7-1 all-time in Pittsburgh, while the Steelers are 6-2 against the spread as home favorites over the last two seasons. That's tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the best mark in the NFL. I don't believe the Steelers are going to repeat as AFC North champions, but they are a better team than the Falcons right now. Aaron Rodgers may be 100 years old, but he's been effective in season openers over his career. He's 12-6 in Week 1 with 32 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. That includes four touchdowns thrown in last year's season opener.

The pick:  Steelers -5.5 Projected score:  Steelers 20-13

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on  Paramount+ )

It seems people are higher on the Green Bay Packers than I am this year. I even said they had one of the worst offseasons in the NFL. Their star running back is on the commissioner's exempt list, their star pass rusher is on the PUP list, they lost their most reliable wide receiver in free agency and there are some concerns when it comes to Jordan Love's offensive line.

I go back and forth whether the Minnesota Vikings are a legitimate sleeper in the NFC. People forget they went 9-8 with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback and had a top three defense. Imagine if Kyler Murray can just play point guard and run Kevin O'Connell's system. He's got a great trio of wideouts to utilize, plus a nice one-two punch at running back. I'm high on Jordan Mason this year. I'm not saying Murray lights it up in his first action as a Viking, but I see a low-scoring affair where Minnesota just simply looks like the better team.

The pick:  Vikings -1.5 Projected score:  Vikings 22-16

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

I'll bite on the Kirk Cousins Las Vegas Raiders . We don't have a lot of advanced stats to utilize for this pick since it features two very new teams with new quarterbacks and new head coaches, but I would argue that the Raiders are actually one of the most-improved teams on paper. Cousins will be an upgrade over Geno Smith , the offensive line will be better with Spencer Burford and Tyler Linderbaum , and the defense will be improved with all the new faces, such as Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker .

Speaking of "on paper," the Miami Dolphins look like the worst team in the league on paper. This wide receiving corps is headlined by Malik Washington , Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell , and the secondary looks even less promising with Jason Marshall Jr. , JuJu Brents and first-round pick Chris Johnson . Maybe Malik Willis is a legitimate star and the Dolphins surprise everyone this year, but to me, the Raiders are the better team.

The pick:  Raiders -3 Projected score:  Raiders 23-17

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

The New York Giants are 1-7 in Week 1 vs. the Dallas Cowboys over the last 20 years, and the Cowboys are 8-0 vs. the Giants in Week 1 primetime games. I would know, because I tried to back the Giants as Week 1 home dogs vs. the Cowboys in 2023. New York lost, 40-0.

I'm high on the Cowboys this year, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is Week 1. This offense is dangerous, as Dak Prescott commanded the No. 2 passing attack and No. 2 total offense in the NFL last year throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens . The defense famously was atrocious, but it's going to be better with all the additions they made. Guys such as Caleb Downs , Malachi Lawrence , Rashan Gary , Dee Winters and Cobie Durant will help the Cowboys get back to the playoffs in 2026.

The pick:  Cowboys -3 Projected score:  Cowboys 28-23

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

Patrick Mahomes will start under center just nine months after tearing his ACL. Credit to him, but I have a hard time believing he's going to be able to run around like we're used to. Plus, it appears undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson will start at one of the tackle spots for the Kansas City Chiefs , which is concerning. This Denver Broncos defense ranked top three in points per game (18.3), yards per game (278.2) and third down percentage (33.8%) last year, and was one of the most aggressive units in the NFL with a league-leading 68 sacks.

I'm curious to see how different this Broncos offensive attack will be with Davis Webb calling the plays. Sean Payton is an NFL legend, but some of his play-calls last year were confusing to me. Maybe the Broncos offense finds more rhythm immediately. I'm not ruling it out.  Bo Nix is a legitimate starting quarterback, as he became the first to ever win 10 games and score 30 total touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. Now, he has Jaylen Waddle  out wide, who I think will really open up the offense. I'm not saying "Monday Night Football" is going to be a shootout, but I'm calling for the upset in Arrowhead.

The pick:  Broncos +2.5 Projected score:  Broncos 17-14

Other Week 1 picks

Seahawks (-3.5) 28-20 over Patriots Rams (-3.5) 24-20 over 49ers Lions 30-27 over Saints (+7) Jaguars 20-16 over Browns (+8.5) Bears (-3) 30-20 over Panthers Texans (+1.5) 23-21 over Bills Ravens (-3.5) 27-23 over Colts Bengals 21-20 over Buccaneers (+3.5) Jets (+1.5) 13-10 over Titans Chargers 27-20 over Cardinals (+9.5) Eagles (-6) 28-21 over Commanders

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-1-picks-odds-best-bets-steelers-broncos/)._