Thunder vs. Spurs Game 6 Prop Trends: Bettors Fading Chet Holmgren

The last team to reach consecutive NBA Finals was Golden State in 2019, and Oklahoma City can become the first club to accomplish that feat this decade when it visits San Antonio tonight for Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals -- a series that few fans want to see end. The Thunder lead 3-2 and a Game 7, if necessary, would be back in OKC on Saturday. No matter what, the West champions host the Knicks on Wednesday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Teams that lead a best-of-7 series 3-2 go on to win the series 83.8% of the time (306-59 record overall) and teams with a 3-2 series lead are 6-2 in this postseason. Both losses -- Orlando to Detroit and Boston to Philadelphia -- came in Round 1 in the East. San Antonio has a 1-13 all-time record when trailing a series 3-2, with that win coming in the 2008 West semifinals vs. the Hornets . The last team to erase a 3-2 deficit in the conference finals was in 2018, when both Cleveland and Golden State did it.

Here's a look at the most-wagered player props for tonight's game at BetMGM in descending order.

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Chet Holmgren Under 14.5 points (-165)

Holmgren's minutes may depend on the injuries to Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams tonight; Mitchell has been ruled out again and Williams is questionable. He hasn't played since Game 1 of the series. Holmgren's 16 points in the Game 5 loss were a series high as he was 6-for-9 from the field after averaging 11.3 PPG in the first four games. All six of his baskets came from inside the arc. Holmgren averaged 17.1 points during the season and had been criticized for not being aggressive enough against Victor Wembanyama . The SportsLine Projection Model has Holmgren with 14.3 points tonight, second-most on the Thunder.

Victor Wembanyama Over 6.5 1Q points (+105)

I expect a very aggressive Wembanyama in Game 6, as he was only 4-for-15 from the field in Game 5 for 20 points, and that 26.7% shooting from the field (he was 12-for-12 from the free-throw line) was Wemby's worst of these playoffs. Isaiah Hartenstein spent the most time defending Wembanyama, who was 1-for-9 from the field when Hartenstein guarded him. The Frenchman opted not to speak to the media after, not a great look, and he was warned by the NBA. "He's got to take more than 15 shots," Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said after Game 5. "Even with the [12] free throws, he's going to have to score more than 20 points, for sure." The model doesn't break points down by quarter but has Wemby with 27 total, so you can divide by four.

Victor Wembanyama Over 16.5 rebounds + assists (-115)

The NBA's Defensive Player of the Year was minus-8 in the Game 5 loss, whereas Wembanyama had a positive plus-minus rating in his previous 30 games played with at least 15 minutes on the court. In addition to struggling from the field in Game 5, Wembanyama was held to six rebounds and one assist. One could argue that Wemby was worrying too much about his 3-point shot (0-for-5). In San Antonio's two victories in the series, Wembanyama has averaged 16 rebounds and 4.0 assists. In the three losses, 9.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He's set at 12.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists tonight via the model.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 Points (-125)

The two-time regular-season MVP is the -330 favorite to win Western Conference Finals MVP and comes off a series-high 32 points in Tuesday's win, but the Spurs have done a pretty good job overall on Gilgeous-Alexander. After averaging 31.1 points 55.3% shooting from the field -- he became the first guard to average at least 30 points and shoot 55% or better from the field -- in the regular season, SGA is down to 26.2 points on 38.8% from the field in this series. That is SGA's worst shooting percentage career in a playoff series. But he continues to get to the free-throw line (whether he flops is up for you to decide) in scoring 16 of his 32 points Tuesday from the charity stripe. Stephon Castle has done well on SGA using his size and strength, but three of Castle's five fouls came while guarding Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 5. The model has SGA at 30.0 points.

Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 points + assists (-120)

Is Holmgren intimidated by Wembanyama? After all, Holmgren dominated in the last round against the Lakers , averaging 20 points on 60.8% from the field. In this series, Holmgren is being outscored by usual reserves Alex Caruso and Jared McCain , but Holmgren was definitely more aggressive in Game 5, going 4-for-4 from the field in the first quarter. "He was on the gas early," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. But Holmgren was 2-for-5 the rest of the way. The 7-footer isn't much of an assist guy, averaging 1.7 during the season and 1.2 in this series with never more than two in a game. The model has him at 15.8 PA.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/thunder-vs-spurs-game-6-prop-trends-thursday-bettors-fading-chet-holmgren-as-okc-can-return-to-nba-finals/)._