Tigers vs. Astros: Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown in Intriguing Pitching Matchup

Do I think the Astros are a 2026 playoff team? I do not, with them sitting eight games below .500, and neither do DraftKings oddsmakers, with Houston +340 for extra baseball and No priced at -450. But I don't think we have been able to accurately judge this team yet because ace Hunter Brown , one of the nastiest right-handers in the majors, has been out since late March.

He returns Tuesday in an intriguing matchup vs. the Detroit Tigers and former star Astros lefty Framber Valdez . It's an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch from Daikin Park.

Tigers vs. Astros same-game parlay

- Houston money line - Alt Under 10.5 - Under 1.5 first-inning total runs

DraftKings SGP price: +150

How Brown fares – and if he stays healthy – could well determine whether Houston is a rare seller at the trade deadline, which this year is Aug. 3. There is no doubt the AL West is eminently winnable, as it might only take a .500 record. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Astros a season win total of 77.5, with only a 5.2% shot at the division title and 21.5% at the playoffs. Those are too low, in my opinion.

The 27-year-old Brown, who grew up a Tigers fan in Detroit, had his breakout campaign in 2025 by going 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 31 starts, leading the Astros with a WAR of 6.1 and finishing third in the AL Cy Young voting (also a third straight year with at least 11 wins).

With Valdez leaving in free agency (I'll get to him in a second), Brown was being counted on as the clear No. 1 guy atop the rotation going forward. He was +1400 to win the AL Cy Young when the season opened, fifth-shortest odds in the Junior Circuit.

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Brown made two March starts and looked pretty good in them at 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 10.2 innings. But a few days after his last on March 31, he suffered a Grade 2 right shoulder strain while playing catch and landed on the injured list.

The Astros collapsed almost immediately after losing Brown, dropping 17 of their next 22, with starting pitchers posting a combined 6.55 ERA in that span. Houston has the highest ERA in the AL overall and has used 27 pitchers already. Brown made four rehab starts and allowed one earned with seven strikeouts over five in the final one for Triple-A Sugar Land.

"We're excited to have him back," embattled manager Joe Espada said. "We're playing good baseball right now. Our rotation needs that boost. Our entire team needs him in our rotation. Just getting him back, he's one of the best in the game."

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The model forecasts Brown at 5.5 innings, 6.4 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. He is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA in 33.2 career innings against his hometown Tigers with 24 strikeouts. Just don't expect to Brown every fifth game for a while, as Houston is expected to now transition to a six-man rotation. Thus, no other starter would have to be pulled from the rotation.

With former league MVP Jose Altuve and All-Star closer Josh Hader now both finally healthy and Yordan Alvarez having an MVP-caliber season, perhaps this season is salvageable for the team – although it was clobbered in the series opener Monday, 9-3.

I would sure hope that Valdez gets a warm reception in his first game back in Houston, as he is a franchise icon who won 81 regular-season games and seven more in the postseason across eight seasons with the Astros, including two in the 2022 World Series. Valdez did regress a bit in 2025, so perhaps that's why Houston didn't really try to re-sign the 32-year-old. Detroit gave him three years and $115 million.

Valdez hasn't lived up to that yet at 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 14 starts. You would be down $208 if you wagered on Detroit to win each of his outings. The model has him at 6.2 innings, 5.2 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. A few current Astros have seen Valdez while with other teams. Christian Walker is 0-for-2 off him with three walks.

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This feels like a rare spot in a 162-game schedule where the Astros will be fired up due to their starting pitcher and the opposing one. They rank seventh in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. Back-to-back lopsided losses at least mean the high-leverage bullpen guys are all ready. The model has Houston 4.2-4.0.  Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/tigers-vs-astros-tuesday-mlb-picks-very-intriguing-pitching-matchup-between-framber-valdez-hunter-brown/)._