US Open Men's Final: Shelton vs. Zverev – Expert Predictions on Who Takes the Title

On Sunday, Ben Shelton will take on Alexander Zverev in the US Open final -- and with plenty of history on the line. Shelton has the chance to become the first American man in 23 years to win a major title. But it's also Shelton's first Grand Slam final appearance -- and he has yet to beat Zverev in their previous five meetings.

Who will win? Our experts break it down.

D'Arcy Maine: Continue to believe and trust in himself -- and know that he can do the previously undoable. Frances Tiafoe , who has also played Zverev 10 times on tour, was asked this very question after the semifinal, and he said Shelton would "take his moments," continue to engage the crowd and forget about his winless 0-5 record against Zverev.

"Obviously, you know, take the head-to-head out of it and actually believe he can win the tennis match," Tiafoe said. "He's got to be good for a couple of hours, maybe plus, and see what happens."

And that really might just be the key. Before the US Open, Shelton had never recorded a win against Carlos Alcaraz in three attempts, but that ultimately meant nothing when it mattered most. On Friday night, Shelton called all of it "uncharted territory" but the "perfect opportunity to put it all on the line." He will need to bring that same mentality -- and his unbelievable serve -- to the final on Sunday.

Simon Cambers: Ride the incredible wave he has been on this summer and play his game. Shelton has the best serve in the game, not just in pace but also in variety, and if he uses it smartly against Zverev, he has a great chance. He has lost all five of his meetings with Zverev, but they have not played this year, in which time Shelton has made significant improvements, especially on his return.

If he can serve as he has been, get into the net off it whenever Zverev stands deep to return, and vary his own return position to get back into a neutral position on the German's serve, he can dominate. Zverev has not been playing his best here, while Shelton is playing the best tennis of his career.

And this goes without saying, but he should use the crowd to his advantage. That doesn't mean whipping them up after every winner but just using them to get under the skin of Zverev. This match could come down to a few tiebreaks, so little things matter.

Bill Connelly: Play like a top-10 player. Zverev has enjoyed an incredible wave of great draws this season: He has reached three finals and four semifinals in this year's Slams, but he has played a total of three guys in the top 10 in the process, and one of them was an injured Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon. That's the only one of the three matches he won. (In fact, it's the only top-10 win he has all season.)

Zverev is more confident than ever, and we've seen him play his way into form nicely in this tournament without some of the hiccups we've seen in the past. But his path to the final came by beating players ranked No. 89, No. 52, No. 28, No. 22, No. 70 and No. 50. And two of those guys took him to five sets. Shelton has a top-five game -- and, now, a shot at his first major title -- if he's firing on all cylinders. So do that.

Aishwarya Kumar: Adding to the perfect takes by the rest of the group here, I'm going to say: Use New York's energy. It's a historic moment: He's the first Black man to play in the final of the US Open since 1972. There's a lot of gravitas to this moment, and New Yorkers know that and will come out directing all the energy toward Shelton.

And, he loves the big moments. His dad told me two years ago that the big moments animate him and make him go bigger. Right after he won Friday, he appealed to the crowd to bring its energy on Sunday. Get the crowd involved, especially when he's feeling tired. Get amped. Have fun in the big moments.

Maine: Well, if Shelton needs to forget the past, Zverev needs to embrace it. In addition to having finally won his first major title this year and knowing all the emotions that come during a final, he has five matches to look back on and learn exactly what has continued to work for him against Shelton.

In those previous matches, four sets have been decided by a tiebreak -- Zverev has won them all. As both men have huge serves, a tiebreak, or more than one, feels likely in the match. Zverev will need to find that same resolve in the pressure moments as he has done before, even as Shelton has made improvements in virtually all aspects of his game since their last meeting at the 2025 ATP Finals. Zverev won two breakers against Karen Khachanov on Friday and seems to be able to step it up when it matters most. He will need to find a way to do that again -- and tune out the heavily partisan crowd -- on Sunday.

Cambers: Stay calm and trust in what has worked before. Ashe is going to be a cauldron on Sunday, with Zverev's team probably the only people in there who want him to win. So Zverev can't allow himself to get frustrated.

The great thing for Zverev is that the pressure is off. Yes, he is the favorite and yes, if he wins, he'll be in a great position to be world No. 1 for the first time come the end of the year. But he already has won a Grand Slam, so he doesn't have that stress to deal with.

He has won all five of their matches, dropping just one set, so his game clearly matches up. He knows if he stays consistent throughout the match, Shelton could have a dip, and that's where Zverev's experience can pay off. Returning the Shelton serve well is obviously an aim, but the mental side will be even more crucial for Zverev.

Connelly: Zverev definitely has all the proof of concept he needs. His relentlessly accurate serve has constantly kept Shelton at bay, and he reads Shelton's serve about as well as anyone in the game. In their five meetings, he has faced just five total break points -- and only one in their last four matches! -- while creating 34 and breaking 10 times. Those are ridiculous numbers.

Until Shelton proves he has truly shifted into a new gear and created a better understanding of Zverev's game, Zverev's job is to simply keep doing what he has always done.

Kumar: Zverev has looked incredibly calm this Open. He usually gets frustrated and shows it, but his composure stuck out to me. He looks like somebody who isn't anxious to be in the final four, in the final. He has done it before and he's having a great year, and that has given him peace, it looks like. He needs to lean into that attitude, especially when the whole stadium will be rooting for Shelton.

Maine: With the crowd firmly behind Shelton and with so much history on the line, this feels almost like destiny. He has been my pick from the start, and I feel even stronger about it now: A 23-year-old will end the 23-year-old drought on Sunday. Zverev will put up a valiant effort, but Shelton ultimately takes it in five sets.

Cambers: I think this is Shelton's time. If he serves his best and plays his best, I feel that will be good enough. Throw in the fact that he's playing at home, on Arthur Ashe Stadium, and aiming to emulate the great Arthur Ashe himself. That will be a massive motivation. Tiebreaks could decide it, and if he holds his nerve, he can win it.

Connelly: Name the intangible factor -- sentiment, momentum, home-court advantage -- and it points to a Shelton breakthrough. But when you've won 10 straight sets against someone, you get the benefit of the doubt. Shelton will land some shots, but Zverev will win in four.

Kumar: Shelton. I've maintained this since the beginning of the tournament: It's his Slam to win. What's impressed me most in the last two weeks is that his backhand, his great weakness, has gotten infinitely better. He is so much more well-rounded than he was even two years ago.

At the beginning of 2024, I spoke with Bryan Shelton, Ben's dad and coach, and this is what he told me: A Grand Slam title is "something [Ben] is shooting for," Bryan said. "He is not one to say, 'I'm going to win this year's Australian Open,' but those are certainly things we've talked about. ... We don't take anything off the table right now, you know?" Even back then, people in his inner circle believed his time would come.

That time is now.

_Originally reported by [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/49909252/us-open-2026-mens-final-ben-shelton-alexander-sasha-zverev)._