NFL Week 1: Last-Minute Betting Picks Include Three Live Underdogs, Feat. C.J. Stroud & Texans

You know what? Take a second and pat yourself on the back. Why? Because you deserve it. You've waited months for this moment, and it's finally here: the first Sunday of the 2026 regular season.

Sure, you've already dabbled in a couple of games with the Seahawks-Patriots and Rams-49ers playing during the week, but this is different. You're not getting off work; you don't have homework to do the next day. All you have to do is sit on the couch and watch hours of football. It's one of the more beautiful things you can do in this life, so let's relish in the fact that we have an entire season to look forward to, and it truly gets moving right now.

Of course, you live a hectic life, so when you do finally get to sit down and take in the NFL, you may not have the time to do the research to confidently wager on a few contests. Well, we're here to help. Below, you can find our last-minute bets for every game remaining on the Week 1 slate, which includes a breakdown of five games we consider to be our best bets.

Happy New Year!

All NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook .

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

Whenever you have a quarterback battle in training camp, you want to enter Week 1 with a firm decision and the confidence that the player selected can get the job done. Does anyone feel confident in Deshaun Watson's ability to keep the offense afloat? Watson didn't look particularly sharp this summer, but beat out Shedeur Sanders anyway, and now he'll face a Jaguars defense that really came on strong down the stretch in 2025, which helped them cover their final eight regular-season games, en route to a league-best 12-5 ATS record.

While Cleveland has a new coach in Todd Monken, the franchise has historically been terrible against the spread on the road over the last two seasons. In that time, they are 4-13 ATS, which ranks as the worst record in the NFL.

I think Cleveland has some solid pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but Trevor Lawrence entering his second year under Liam Coen could make the Jacksonville offense even more high-powered than it was a year ago. If they build up a lead and force Watson into a pass-heavy game script, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker could feast.

Projected score: Jaguars 30, Browns 17 The pick: Jaguars -8.5

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo , try for free)

The Laremy Tunsil injury (torn triceps on Aug. 8) was a gut punch to the Commanders, who are hoping to rebound after a disappointing 2025 season that was marred by injury. It looms large in this matchup against Philadelphia, particularly if Jonathan Greenard (who has been dealing with the pec injury) is able to go. When you pair protection issues with a defense that may need a few weeks to fit their new pieces ( Odafe Oweh , K'Lavon Chaisson , and Sonny Styles ) in, there's the possibility that things could get out of hand for Washington as they step into Lincoln Financial Field.

On top of that, Jayden Daniels is 1-7 ATS in his last eight road starts.

The Eagles have routinely started the year off on a strong note, winning five straight Week 1 games entering 2026. They are also 9-1 in their past 10 Week 1 contests. Sure, Philadelphia is dealing with its own set of changes, transitioning to a new offense under OC Sean Mannion and working without A.J. Brown (traded to New England), but this is still a potent group. Most importantly, the offensive line is healthy, which I believe was a key reason for their downfall at the end of last season.

Projected score: Eagles 30, Commanders 20 The pick: Eagles -6

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

- Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN, Stream: Fubo , try for free)

I simply don't understand how the books are assessing the Broncos. They are currently looking up at the Chiefs and Chargers to win the AFC West, despite reaching the AFC Championship a year ago. Had it not been for Bo Nix suffering a fractured ankle that booted him from the title game, they could've reached the Super Bowl. To me, they are the most complete team in the division after bringing everyone back from last year, getting Nix healthy, and adding Jayden Waddle to the receiver room.

Something tells me they'll remind the league of their ceiling with a statement road win in Week 1 on the Monday Night Football stage.

I also have some serious questions about the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is returning from a torn ACL and LCL he sustained in Week 15, and I wonder whether his escapability will be where it needs to be, given the shakiness of the offensive line. Specifically, left tackle Josh Simmons is dealing with a back injury, while right tackle Jaylon Moore gave up three sacks and 23 pressures last year despite playing just 42% of the offensive snaps in spot appearances. If Simmons is out, Moore would likely swing to left tackle, which would then elevate undrafted free agent Kahlil Benson to right tackle.

So, if you're scoring at home, Kansas City is starting a quarterback who could have limited mobility in his first game back from a season-ending knee injury and is playing behind an offensive line with clear issues at both starting tackle spots, and they are facing a Broncos defense that has piled up 131 sacks over the last two seasons. That might tell the entire story right there.

Projected score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20 The pick: Broncos +2.5

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

I believe DJ Moore being added to the Bills offense will do wonders for Josh Allen this season, but that won't happen in Week 1. I love the Texans as a home dog because they are well-equipped to slow down Buffalo's key offensive pieces. Houston allowed just 17.4 points per game last season (second-fewest in the NFL) and 277.2 yards per game (fewest). Derek Stingley Jr . should help slow down the Bills passing attack; rookie defensive tackle Kayden McDonald could be a key piece against the run; and, of course, you have Will Anderson Jr . and Danielle Hunter both screaming off the edge. That's a lot for Josh Allen to deal with, and Houston has played him well recently.

In his career, Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans. In those games, his teams have averaged 17.8 points per game, and he's completed just 52.8% of his passes. Over the past two seasons (no matter the location), here's how Allen has fared against Houston compared to the rest of the league.

Josh Allen past two seasons vs. Texans vs. rest of NFL

Completion percentage

52%

68%

Yards per attempt

6.0

8.0

TD-INT

1-2

52-14

Sacks per game 4.5 1.4

All the Texans need from the offense is for C.J. Stroud to protect the football. And they might be able to do that with a stable running game after acquiring David Montgomery this offseason. Buffalo struggled mightily against the run in 2025 and didn't do much this offseason to fix that deficiency. If Houston can get it going on the ground, that should help Stroud immensely in this upset attempt.

Projected score: Texans 26, Bills 23 The pick: Texans +1.5

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

When you look at the Over/Under win totals for the season, you'll find that the Titans sit at 6.5 and the Jets are at 5.5. Both teams need this game to reach their over, and I think Tennessee will be the one swimming upstream by the end of Sunday afternoon. I don't think New York will make many waves this season, but they are far more talented than they were a year ago on both sides of the ball.  For instance, they ranked last in the NFL with 140.3 passing yards per game. Geno Smith won't be mistaken for an elite quarterback, but he'll improve that figure, especially with a strong offensive line in front of him and some intriguing skill position players like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at his disposal.

They also added many veterans to their defense, including linebacker Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick . That's not to mention edge rusher David Bailey , who was the No. 2 pick in the draft.

Tennessee made moves this offseason as well, hiring Robert Saleh as head coach, bringing in Brian Daboll as OC, and adding a slew of veterans on both sides of the ball. The big X-factor will be Cam Ward , who didn't look great this preseason. I think it might take a little longer for the Titans' pieces to come together, which could allow the Jets to surprisingly start the year 1-0.

Projected score: Jets 24, Titans 20 The pick: Jets +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Falcons at Steelers Projected score: Steelers 24, Falcons 17 The pick: Steelers -6

Ravens at Colts Projected score: Ravens 26, Colts 23 The pick: Colts +3.5

Bears at Panthers Projected score: Bears 27, Panthers 20 The pick: Bears -3

Saints at Lions Projected score: Lions 33, Saints 21 The pick: Lions -7

Buccaneers at Bengals Projected score: Bengals 30, Buccaneers 23 The pick: Bengals -3.5

Cardinals at Chargers Projected score: Chargers 27, Cardinals 20 The pick: Cardinals +9.5

Packers at Vikings Projected score: Vikings 24, Packers 20 The pick: Vikings -1.5

Dolphins at Raiders Projected score: Raiders 21, Dolphins 20 The pick: Dolphins +3

Cowboys at Giants Projected score: Giants 27, Cowboys 24 The pick: Giants +3

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/last-minute-best-bets-for-nfl-week-1/)._