2026 Week 3 College Football: Model Predicts Florida State (+19.5) Upset Over Alabama

The Week 3 college football schedule features one game -- Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh -- on Thursday and two FBS matchups -- Miami vs. Wake Forest and Texas Tech vs. Houston -- on Friday. One of the most anticipated games of the season comes on Saturday as Ole Miss hosts Lane Kiffin and LSU in a top-10 matchup. The atmosphere in Oxford should be raucous as Kiffin returns to the program he bolted from before last season's College Football Playoff began.  Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades :

The latest Week 3 college football lines list LSU as a 3-point road favorite. Other college football odds of note include Alabama (-19.5) vs. Florida State, Florida (-2.5) vs. Auburn and Clemson (-3.5) against North Carolina. Before locking in any Week 3 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football score predictions from SportsLine's proven model .

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks on  betting sites  since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to even better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its picks on  college football betting sites  could have seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 3 and locked in picks for every FBS matchup.  Head here to see every pick .

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Top college football score predictions for Week 3

One college football score prediction for the Week 3 college football schedule at the best betting apps : The model projects that Alabama beats Florida State 33-20 in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. That makes FSU (+19.5) the play against the spread as the Seminoles cover 66% of the time, while the Over (49.5) clears 53% of the time in the simulations.

Alabama opened at -15.5 in the early lines, but the spread has moved five full points since then. FSU hasn't looked great through two weeks, but the Seminoles did cover (+3.5) in a loss against SMU in Week 1. Since FSU played in Week 0, the Seminoles are also coming off a bye, whereas Alabama played on the road last week.

The Crimson Tide ultimately handled Kentucky 45-17, but the Tide actually trailed at half. FSU also beat Alabama outright in Tallahassee last year, so the model is projecting a comfortable cover for FSU in this one.  See the model's score predictions for every other matchup here .

College football best bets for Week 3

The model has also made the call on the exact score prediction for each Week 3 college football game, including backing multiple underdogs, including one in one of the week's top matchups.  You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what is the exact projected score for each game, and which underdog pulls off a shocking upset? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that is on a 33-21 run , and find out.

College football lines for Week 3 notable games

See full Week 3 college football picks, odds, predictions here

Thursday, Sep. 17 Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-10.5, 51.5)

Friday, Sep. 18 Miami at Wake Forest (+20.5, 55.5) Houston at Texas Tech (-7.5, 53.5)

Saturday, Sep. 19 North Carolina at Clemson (-3.5, 44.5) Georgia at Arkansas (+25.5, 54.5) SMU at Louisville (-1.5, 59.5) USC at Rutgers (+23.5, 59.5) Florida State at Alabama (-19.5, 49.5) Florida at Auburn (+2.5, 53.5) Michigan State at Notre Dame (-29.5, 52.5) West Virginia at Virginia (+10.5, 53.5) LSU at Ole Miss (+3, 58.5)

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/college-football-score-predictions-picks-for-week-3-2026/)._