2027 NFL Draft: Moore's Early Struggles, Mestemaker's Rise After Week 2 Matchup

Two weeks of college football aren't enough to make sweeping declarations about the 2027 quarterback class, but they can give us a glimpse of what the future might hold, both for the next few months and maybe even the next few years.

It's why we all made a mental note to see how Drew Mestemaker and Oklahoma State stacked up against Dante Moore and Oregon in Week 2. One quarterback dominated at North Texas before transferring; the other could have parlayed a strong 2025 season into the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 draft. On paper, the Ducks should have won. In reality, they slept through their second straight game, and this listless performance ended with a well-deserved upset loss, 39-31.

Mestemaker threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns, ran for another 109 yards and a score and, on first viewing, outplayed Moore.  I should reiterate, Moore entered the season as my QB1 and the No. 1 player on my big board. Moore rallied after a rough start and made some impressive throws — much like he did against Boise State last week — but this was Mestemaker's statement game.

What does this mean in the scheme of things? Not a whole helluva lot, honestly. Mestemaker looked overwhelmed against Tulsa in his debut and then bounced back to be the best player on the field against the Ducks. Moore, meanwhile, has a season's worth of really good tape, but so far through two games in 2026, he's been far less consistent than he was a year ago.

Instead of making some grand declaration, the better exercise is going back to what I saw last season, what former Titans GM Ran Carthon — my co-host on With the First Pick — and I saw during summer scouting, and what I wrote back in August before the season.

Essentially: identifying exactly what both quarterbacks needed to show us in '26 and then asking whether anything we've seen so far has changed our minds.

Why Moore-Mestemaker was interesting before Saturday

Moore entered the season as QB1 because he's as good as anyone in the class (it's also why he would've been the No. 2 overall pick back in April). His ability to push the ball downfield stood out on tape (his big-time-throw rate on deep balls ranked in the 99th percentile in '25), but so did the drop-off when he had to get beyond his first read or when the pocket became compressed. His 2025 second-read passing grade was 63.5, according to PFF, while his passing grade fell from 92.6 in a clean pocket to 51.0 under pressure.

Mestemaker's evaluation heading into the season looked very different. He was my QB9 after a huge season at North Texas, and the tape showed a calm pocket passer who would get through reads, keep his eyes downfield and throw with touch on intermediate routes. The questions centered on arm strength, sometimes being late downfield and whether some of those limitations would become pronounced with the step up in competition.

There was another wrinkle, too. Over the summer, I wanted another way to pressure-test what I was seeing on tape, so I came up with the First-Round Readiness Score, or FRED . It looks at where a quarterback is in his development at a given point in his college career and compares it with quarterbacks who eventually became first-round picks. It's not a draft grade, and it's not meant to replace the tape.

But it can tell you when history sees a player differently than the prevailing narrative does, whether that comes from league evaluators, fans or the media. And entering the season, it liked Mestemaker a lot more than Moore.

Mestemaker's FRED score was 40.4, third in the class. Moore was at 19.2 (A score of 50 has been the historical first-round threshold). That didn't mean Mestemaker was the better prospect heading into the season, but it did give us another reason to pay attention to the gap between their evaluations. Two weeks on, that appears to be a worthwhile question to keep asking.

Dante Moore

Drew Mestemaker

My preseason big board rank

QB1

QB9

Preseason FRED

19.2

40.4

Main preseason question

Can the elite flashes survive beyond the first read?

Does the historical case hold up against better competition?

Week 1 deep throws

2/5, 72 yards

1/5, 27 yards

Week 1 second read

2/5, 11 yards

4/8, 55 yards

Week 2 deep throws

3/4, 94 yards, 2 TD

2/4, 85 yards, TD

Week 2 second read

1/5, 6 yards

6/14, 90 yards, INT

Two-week takeaway

Still really good on deep throws, progression concern persists

Passed the Oregon test; need to see him continue to improve his processing

Moore's best trait still looks like his best trait

Given how Oregon has stumbled out of the gate, it may be easy to overlook that the thing that made Moore QB1 is still a big part of his game. In Week 1, he was 2-of-5 for 72 yards on throws of 20-plus yards, then went 3-of-4 for 94 yards and two touchdowns against Oklahoma State.

But getting beyond his first read remains problematic. Moore was 2-of-5 for 11 yards in those situations in Week 1, then 1-of-5 for six yards on Saturday, including a sack and not a single first down. That's two more weeks where Moore has been much better throwing deep than working past his first read. That's not the end of the world — pushing the ball downfield is a critical part of playing quarterback in the NFL. But so is getting through your progressions against increasingly complex defenses.

Rewatching the tape, it was better than it looked live. Moore still had some of the same issues we've been tracking — he faced some drop-8 looks that seemed to frustrate him, and he forced a few turnover-worthy throws into tight windows. He also missed some throws he usually hits, but his receivers weren't creating much separation. There were several drops that could've turned into big gains, and Moore still showed glimpses of what made him QB1: smooth footwork, anticipation on deep comebacks, touch on intermediate in-breakers and the ability to extend plays and throw accurately on the move.

Like Week 1, he got better as the game went on. He converted a third-and-17 out of structure, ripped a seam throw and later dropped a 36-yard touchdown in the bucket.

> And now Dante Moore is the one heating up for @oregonfootball as he tosses a 36 yard TD to make it 27-23. pic.twitter.com/U7rYAA4eKf — Glenn Naughton (@JetsPicks) September 12, 2026

This game was just more confirmation of the good and not-so-good versions of Moore we've seen. He can indeed get off his first read on time and he clearly knows where he wants to go based on the pre-snap look. The issue is doing it consistently enough once the defense changes the picture after the snap.

Mestemaker passed a much different test

Mestemaker's Week 1 wasn't especially revealing. He went 1-of-5 for 27 yards on throws of 20-plus yards and 4-of-8 for 55 yards after his first read in his first start for the Cowboys. It wasn't particularly impressive, and that's fine. He's just 20 years old, and the prevailing wisdom was that he'd likely stay in school beyond this season anyway.

The Tulsa game allowed Mestemaker to get his feet wet ahead of his first real test. And his Oregon performance gave us our first real answer. He was responsible for 426 total yards, created explosive plays with both his arm and legs and helped Oklahoma State answer every Oregon rally.

> Oh my, Mestemaker! pic.twitter.com/Qx5Sv7Zpjx — Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 12, 2026

And:

> What a touchdown run from Drew Mestemaker. Shades of Fernando Mendoza. He’s showing why he is on so many 1st round draft boards today pic.twitter.com/hjMlklFC5q — Jay Henry (@jay_h3nry) September 12, 2026

More importantly for our FRED-related purposes here, the moment never looked too big for a quarterback who had faced exactly zero Power 4 schools last season for North Texas.

There's plenty to clean up, for sure. He can still panic when the first read isn't there. He'll get locked onto his primary target and force throws into traffic. There were a few examples where he didn't see underneath defenders dropping into zones he was trying to attack. Oregon also didn't create much pressure, which isn't Mestemaker's fault, but playing from clean pockets while throwing the ball 43 times won't be a weekly thing.

But there was a lot to like. Mestemaker looked much more comfortable when protected, worked from Read 1 to 2 to 3 with good footwork, played on time over the middle and showed excellent touch on intermediate and deep balls. His arm also looked stronger than it did last season. Add in his prowess as a runner and the larger takeaway is hard to miss: Mestemaker needed to show he could produce when the competition got better, and against Oregon, he looked like he belonged.

As for some other FRED favorites…

Elsewhere in the 2027 QB class, FRED also gave us a few other names to watch closely before the season. Two weeks in, some of those early signals are starting to look pretty interesting.

Miami Hurricanes' Darian Mensah may have given us the cleanest two-week answer of any quarterback we're tracking. His 39.4 FRED score ranked fourth in the class entering the season , and the preseason concern was whether he could become more consistent once the first option disappeared. Through two games, he's been productive both when throwing downfield and after getting through his reads. He was 3-of-3 for 80 yards on second-read throws in Week 2 against an overmatched Florida A&M team after completing both such attempts in the opener vs. Stanford.

USC's Jayden Maiava has been good early, too . His 43.4 FRED score ranked second in the class entering the season. He went 8-of-11 for 128 yards after the first read in Week 1, then threw five touchdowns in Week 2 vs. Louisiana, and was 3-of-3 with three scores on deep passes. There are still decision-making issues to monitor (he had a head-scratching interception on Saturday), but the early returns support why both the scouting and his preseason historical profile made him interesting.

South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers is on the other side of it . His preseason FRED score was just 11.9, and his traits are obvious. But he entered the season needing to answer the same question we've had for a couple of years now: Will his ability to play from the pocket improve enough to make him something more than a developmental quarterback with insane physical tools?  A 10-of-25, 96-yard Week 2 performance against Towson, including 0-of-3 on deep throws, means we're still waiting for that answer.

Though, that's what September should be about. Two games don't erase the body of work up to that point, but it can tell us where to keep looking. Moore and Mestemaker are two of the best examples so far: One remains the better prospect based on the tape, experience and competition. The other was a quarterback FRED told us to watch more closely, and midway through September, that looks like good advice.

For college football fans, that's another layer to watch on Saturdays this fall. And for NFL fans whose teams may be looking for a QB next spring, it's a chance to follow along as it unfolds in real time — and you'll have a much better feel for these passers by the time the draft conversation really heats up.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2027-nfl-draft-dante-moores-early-struggles-drew-mestemaker/)._