Blue Jays Face Must-Win Matinee Against Tigers Amidst Sweep Threat

The term "must-win game" is used too often, and I'm guilty of that. So, let's call today's Blue Jays finale of a homestand, and possibly their last home game that matters in 2026, a "must-have game" for playoff-hopeful Toronto as it welcomes Detroit in one of a handful of getaway day matinees around the majors Wednesday. It's a 3:07 ET first pitch from Rogers Centre.

The Tigers try for the shocking sweep. There is split action on the money line and solid leans to the Under 8.5.  Bet $5+ on any of Wednesday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Following today, the Blue Jays play three games at Texas and three at Baltimore before their final series of the season from Sept. 25-27 at home vs. Cincinnati. You simply can't lose a game like today against a non-playoff contender like Detroit ahead of visits to a pair of other teams fighting for postseason baseball in the Rangers and Orioles .

Currently, Toronto (75-77) is +320 for extra baseball and given a 24.6% chance by the SportsLine Projection Model. That last AL playoff spot is likely down to the Guardians , Jays, Rangers and Orioles. Toronto had been +135 for the playoffs as of Tuesday, but its loss to Detroit and Cleveland's bottom-of-the ninth comeback win against Chicago shifted things quite a bit. The Guardians lose a tiebreaker with the Blue Jays but now are up 1.5 games.

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Tigers vs. Blue Jays MLB same-game parlay

- Toronto alt +1.5 - Under 1.5 second-inning runs - Alt Under 10.5

FanDuel SGP price: +129 (subject to change)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr . and other key Toronto guys having disappointing seasons, where would the Blue Jays be without Japanese rookie third baseman Kazuma Okamoto ? He leads all AL rookies with 33 homers and 88 RBI – both franchise rookie records -- but is a +10000 long shot for AL Rookie of the Year. That will go to Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle (-800).

This could be the final home start in the Hall of Fame career of 42-year-old Max Scherzer (2-8, 6.387 ERA), as there's no doubt he will retire and may or may not be lined up for one last at home in that final series vs. the Reds . That might depend on whether that matters for anything, considering Scherzer is the weak link of the rotation.

He was shelled last Friday by Baltimore for six runs and seven hits over five innings in the only loss the Blue Jays suffered in that important series. It was the fifth time this season Scherzer allowed at least five earned in a start. "We can't lose our way into the playoffs, we have to win our way into the playoffs," he said after.

If the Jays get to the wild-card round, I rather doubt Scherzer is even on the roster. He has not faced the Tigers, one of his former teams, this season. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Scherzer at 4.5 innings, 4.1 strikeouts, 4.2 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs. He is +243 to get the win, which would be No. 224 career.

That would put Scherzer in a tie for 69th all-time, as he's currently tied at 71st with Hooks Dauss, Paul Derringer, Mel Harder and Clayton Kershaw . I've heard of the last guy, at least. Jim Bunning and Catfish Hunter sit at 224 wins.

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Detroit (72-79) isn't eliminated from the playoff chase yet sitting 4.5 games out of the last spot and on an MLB-best six-game winning streak, but it's surely too little, too late priced +2200 for the postseason. Maybe this late run saves manager AJ Hinch's job.

Converted reliever Keider Montero (9-8, 3.55 ERA) takes the mound here. He has been a bright spot but failed to go more than four innings in back-to-back no-decisions. Perhaps the Tigers are being cautious, as Montero has thrown a career-high 147 innings in 2026 and also just came off the Paternity List.

Montero hasn't faced the Blue Jays this year but was hammered in his lone start against them in 2025. George Springer is 4-for-6 career off him with two homers and a double. The model has Montero at 6.0 innings, 4.0 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs. He is +221 to personally win.

Tigers third baseman Colt Keith (.257, 10 HR, 36 RBI) has missed the past two games with a minor injury. Excellent catcher Dillon Dingler didn't start Tuesday, but that means he should today. He is having a terrific season with 21 doubles, 27 homers and 88 RBI (all career highs) and a 4.7 fWAR number that leads all big-league catchers.

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I am struggling massively on SportsLine MLB picks, but thankfully hit Tuesday's Royals-Astros three-leg parlay in this space at +150. I opted for second-inning Under runs here to get to the bottom half of the order instead of in the first inning. I do think the Jays play desperate, but I'm covered in a one-run loss. That's basically what the model has at Tigers prevailing by a score of 4.8-4.0.  Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/tigers-vs-blue-jays-mlb-picks-toronto-needs-vintage-max-scherzer-on-mound-in-near-must-win-matinee-wednesday/)._