WNBA Regular Season Concludes: Playoff Seeding and Homecourt Advantage on the Line

The 2026 WNBA regular season will resume Thursday following the 2026 FIBA Women's World Cup, which Team USA won thanks to a dominant second half in the final against France on Sunday. Once play resumes, it will truly be a sprint to the finish, with just one week of games before the season concludes on Sept. 24.

All eight playoff spots have already been secured, so there is no drama there, but there are still plenty of matters to settle. Ahead of Thursday, here's a look at what's at stake.

Can Lynx hold off Valkyries for No. 1 seed?

On July 12, the Las Vegas Aces were crushed by the Indiana Fever . That defeat gave the Minnesota Lynx sole possession of first place, and Cheryl Reeve's bunch has held it ever since.

At one point, it seemed as though the Lynx (31-9) might lock up the No. 1 seed before the World Cup break. But they lost their last two games, including one to the second-place Golden State Valkyries  (29-11), who are on a four-game winning streak that has cut the gap to two games. The Lynx have the season tiebreaker over the Valkyries, however, so their advantage is effectively three games with four to play for each team.

The Lynx's magic number -- a combination of wins or Valkyries losses -- to clinch the No. 1 seed is two. Minnesota remains the clear favorite to earn homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, but Golden State has a significantly easier remaining schedule, which could make things interesting.

Lynx remaining schedule:

- vs. Liberty , at Sun , at Fever, vs. Fever

Valkyries remaining schedule:

- vs. Fire , vs. Storm , at Fire, at Sparks

If the Valkyries win out, which is a real possibility, the Lynx would have to go 2-2. And if you pencil in the game against the lowly Sun as a win, Minnesota needs to win one of its other three games -- a home game with the Liberty and a back-to-back with the Fever -- to lock up the top seed. The Lynx should have no trouble doing that, but their games this season against New York and Indiana have been very competitive. If Minnesota loses that game against New York on Friday, the pressure would really be on.

Battle for homecourt advantage

While the eight playoff teams are set, their order is not. There are going to be fierce seeding battles down the stretch, particularly in the middle of the pack as teams try to secure homecourt advantage in the best-of-three first round.

Before we break things down, here's a look at the standings heading into Thursday:

Team W L W% GB

Lynx

31

9

.775

--

Valkyries

29

11

.725

2

Aces

27

13

.675

4

Dream

26

14

.650

5

Fever

26

14

.650

5

Liberty

24

16

.600

7

Mystics

24

16

.600

7

Wings

24

16

.600

7

As you can see, there are three distinct groups:

- 1-2: Lynx and Valkyries - 3-5: Aces, Dream and Fever - 6-8: Liberty, Mystics and Wings

The Aces, Dream and Fever could all technically move up to the No. 2 seed, but it feels safe to assume that the Lynx and Valkyries are going to finish first and second in some order. So let's focus on the other two groups.

By far the most interesting battle down the stretch is between the Aces, Dream and Fever. One from that group, which includes the reigning champions Aces and a semifinalist from last season (Fever), will not get homecourt advantage in the first round.

The Aces control their destiny for the No. 3 seed, and will finish third if they win it -- a real possibility given their remaining schedule. The Dream are in the driver's seat for the No. 4 seed because they currently own the tiebreaker over the Fever -- the teams are 2-2 against each other this season, but the Dream have a better record against opponents with better than a .500 record -- and the Fever have a much tougher schedule down the stretch. The Fever own the tiebreaker over the Aces, while the Aces own the tiebreaker over the Dream.

Aces remaining schedule:

- at Storm, vs. Storm, vs. Sparks, at Mercury

Dream remaining schedule:

- vs. Sun, vs. Sky , at Liberty, at Liberty

Fever remaining schedule:

- at Tempo , vs. Mystics, vs. Lynx, at Lynx

Based on the remaining schedules for those three teams, there's a good chance this becomes a heads-up race for No. 4 between the Dream and Fever. Adding to the intrigue, however, the Liberty -- currently in sixth -- close the season with two games against the Dream, which could give them that season tiebreaker if they win both, and they already have the tiebreaker over the Fever.

The Liberty have been extremely inconsistent this season, but Breanna Stewart , Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones are more than capable of going on a run against anyone. Remarkably, despite all of their injury problems, it's still possible for the Liberty to get in the mix for homecourt advantage. At the same time, the Liberty could just as easily fall to eighth given the congestion at the bottom of the standings.

Additionally, the Mystics and Wings could both technically still climb as high as third. While that is unlikely, they have the fourth- and second-easiest remaining schedules, respectively. The Mystics' matchup with the Fever is their only game against a playoff opponent, while the Wings only have lottery foes remaining.

Liberty remaining schedule:

- at Lynx, at Tempo, vs. Dream, vs. Dream

Mystics remaining schedule:

- at Sky, at Fever, vs. Sun, vs. Sky

Wings remaining schedule:

- vs. Sparks, vs. Mercury, at Mercury, at Storm

Even if the Liberty, Mystics or Wings don't move up into the mix for homecourt advantage, the battle between these three clubs will be fascinating to watch, especially if higher seeds get locked in and they start jockeying for first-round matchups.

Will Caitlin Clark or Alyssa Thomas win assists race?

In 2024, her rookie season, Caitlin Clark led the league in assists at 8.4 per game, besting Alyssa Thomas ' 7.9. Clark also set the single-season assists record that year with 337. Last season, while Clark largely sat on the sidelines with an array of injuries, Thomas stole the assists crown. Her 9.2 assists per game led the league, and her 357 assists set a new single-season record.

With both players healthy this season, the assists race is going down to the wire. Thomas has played two more games and 147 more minutes. As a result, she holds a 320-302 lead in total assists over Clark. On a per-game basis, Thomas is at 8.42, while Clark is at 8.38.

Thomas will almost certainly finish with more total assists, and has a chance to break her own single-season record. She needs 38 more assists to do so, or 9.5 per game over her final four games. That's definitely doable, especially with nothing else left to play for in Phoenix. However, the assists leader for a season is determined on a per-game basis, and they are essentially tied on that front.

Will Thomas become the first player since Courtney Vandersloot (2017-21) to lead the league in assists in back-to-back seasons? Or will Clark take the title back? Clark and the Fever have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way and are in a serious battle for homecourt advantage in the playoffs, so she won't be able to hunt assists the way that Thomas could, if she so chooses.

It's also worth noting that there could be extra motivation for both players, given the infamous incident earlier this season in which Thomas put her fist on Clark's throat and was retroactively assessed a Flagrant 2 foul and suspended for a game.

Season Caitlin Clark APG Alyssa Thomas APG

2024

8.4

7.9

2025

DNQ

9.2

2026

8.38

8.42

Lottery odds

Due to expansion and the addition of the Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo, there are seven teams in the lottery this year -- the most since the inaugural lottery in 2002. The league has not publicly announced the new odds, but it has stated that the Fire and Tempo will use one-year records to determine lottery odds, while non-expansion teams will continue to use two-year aggregate records. That, at least, gives us clarity on how to determine the order of lottery odds.

Here it is entering Thursday:

Team 2-year record 2-year W% No. 1 pick odds

Sun

21-63

.250

TBD

Tempo

11-29*

.275

TBD

Sky (owe to Mystics)

25-59

.298

TBD

Storm

31-53

.369

TBD

Fire

16-24*

.400

TBD

Sparks

36-48

.429

TBD

Mercury (owe to Sparks)

41-43

.488

TBD

The Sun control their destiny for the best odds for the No. 1 pick, but the Tempo, who are 2-20 since their 9-9 start, are suddenly right on their heels. Here are the winning percentages based on each team's possible finish:

Sun

- 0-4: 21-67 (.239) - 1-3: 22-66 (.250) - 2-2: 23-65 (.261) - 3-1: 24-64 (.273) - 4-0: 25-63 (.284)

Tempo

- 0-4: 11-33 (.250) - 1-3: 12-32 (.273) - 2-2: 13-31 (.295) - 3-1: 14-30 (.318) - 4-0: 15-29 (.341)

Notably, the Sun and Tempo cannot both go 0-4. They play each other on the final day of the season in what will be the Sun's last game in Connecticut before their move to Houston in 2027. It could decide who has the best odds for the No. 1 pick.

The Sky, who owe the Mystics a first-round pick swap, could move in front of the Tempo for the second-best odds, but they cannot "catch" the Sun for the best odds. Even in the unlikely event that the Sun finished 4-0 and the Sky finished 0-4, which would give them identical 25-63 two-year records (.284 winning percentage), the Sun are guaranteed to have a worse record this season, which gives them the tiebreaker.

The lottery results are always important, but rarely more so than this year. Whichever team wins the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft will have the right to select USC star JuJu Watkins, who is making her return from a torn ACL this season. Though Watkins could return to school for a fifth year in 2027-28, that seems unlikely given her previous comments regarding the league's draft eligibility rules.

Despite her injury, Watkins is the clear favorite to go No. 1. The 6-foot-2, do-it-all wing is one of the best prospects to enter the league in recent memory, and has both the on-court talent and off-court charisma to carry a franchise.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/wnba/news/wnba-season-resumes-playoff-seeding-homecourt-advantage-lottery/)._