2026 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 4 Picks and Strategy, Including Fading Green Bay

It's already been a rough year for many survivor pool participants as the Texans, Seahawks, Rams and Saints all fell in Week 3. To complicate matters even more this week, the schedule features a number of challenging matchups, including Packers vs. Buccaneers (+3.5), Cardinals vs. Giants (+1), Cowboys vs. Texans (-2.5), Jaguars vs. Bengals (-2.5), Rams vs. Eagles (+1.5), Patriots vs. Bills (-7), Broncos vs. 49ers (-2.5), Chiefs vs. Raiders (+4.5) and Falcons vs. Saints (-2.5) on 'Monday Night Football.'  Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades :

Meanwhile no game has a larger NFL spread to consider for Week 4 NFL knockout picks than Titans vs. Ravens (-11.5), although Tennessee has played its last two games down to the wire. Still, there are a few other games that NFL survivor players are considering such as Dolphins vs. Vikings (-10) and Chargers vs. Seahawks (-7). Before making any Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks,  see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on  betting sites  on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at  NFL betting sites  could have seen strong returns. It nailed its Week 3 survivor pick, picking the Lions to beat the Jets.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 4 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick.  You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

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Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Green Bay Packers, who are 3.5-point and -188 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., on Sunday. Green Bay has looked nothing like a playoff team this season. It continues to sputter on offense due to a leaky offensive line, which allowed quarterback Jordan Love to be pressured 25 times, although he was sacked just once.

The Buccaneers will be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who suffered a thumb injury in last week's 23-16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers may turn to the ground game after Bijon Robinson ran all over the Packers last week. The Bucs are led by running back Bucky Irving, who has carried 40 times for 180 yards and one touchdown. SportsLine's model is projecting a 2-point game, making Green Bay a risky survivor play this week as it wins just 55% of the time.  See which team to pick instead here .

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and  you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nails survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/nfl-survivor-pool-picks-knockout-strategy-advice-for-week-4-2026/)._