Buccaneers Face Packers in NFL Week 4, Mayfield Out, On Historic ATS Skid

There are a lot of good NFL games in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday window for Week 4, including Patriots-Bills and Jaguars-Bengals both on CBS (and streaming on Paramount+). But I'm here to look at the 1-2 Packers visiting the winless Buccaneers , because the season is pretty much over for the loser. Especially so for Tampa Bay, which starts life without injured quarterback Baker Mayfield . And it gives me a chance to address a truly bonkers against-the-spread trend.  Sign up to wager on NFL games using the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

It is usually great weather in Tampa (a city I lived in for many years) this time of year, and that's mostly the case Sunday, although it's somewhat hotter than normal for early October. Hey, at least there are no hurricanes. The forecast: Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 91F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%. At -3.5 at DraftKings , the Packers are taking 61% of money but the Bucs 57% of bets. There is huge Over action on 39.5.

Go back to late October last season. Tampa Bay was coming off a 23-3 win in New Orleans to improve to 6-2 entering its Week 9 bye. The Bucs were in control of the NFC South and Mayfield was playing close to an MVP level. Since then, the Bucs are 2-10 straight-up and an incredible 0-12 ATS. That's the longest ATS losing streak since the merger in 1970, and what's amazing is that Tampa Bay was the favorite in eight of the 12 -- and at least a TD favorite in three.

Mayfield and Co. were 1.5-point home dogs this past Sunday against unbeaten Minnesota, and the Vikings stayed that way with a 23-16 victory. The former Heisman Trophy winner Mayfield wasn't having a great game at 17-for-34 for 217 yards with a TD and pick before leaving in the fourth quarter after dislocating his thumb on his throwing hand. Mayfield was trying to make something out of nothing on fourth-and-13 with 1:54 left and his team trying to rally from down 20-16. He was under a pass-rush siege and was hit by Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman . The throw was picked off.

The only good news is that an MRI showed no additional damage, but the QB is likely at least out three weeks because he isn't able to grip the ball.

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Frankly, Mayfield has been regressing steadily since that Saints win I mentioned above; now that three-year, $165 million contract the team gave him on the eve of the season looks quite questionable. Mayfield's 54 regular-season starts since joining the Bucs are tied for most in the league, and he has never missed a start with Tampa Bay.

We saw Monday night what a quality veteran backup quarterback could do for the Bears when they upset the Eagles . Tampa Bay, however, doesn't have anyone like a Case Keenum behind Mayfield. The only other QB on the roster had been undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels out of Kansas.

The 23-year-old, who seemed to be at KU for a decade, was the first undrafted rookie in franchise history to start the season as the team's primary backup quarterback after a really impressive preseason. No former Kansas player has started at quarterback in the NFL since Frank Seurer in 1987.

In his brief action Sunday, Daniels was 0-for-3 with a pick. I'd expect the Bucs to use Daniels' mobility a ton like the downstate and also winless Dolphins have been with Malik Willis . For Sunday, the SportsLine model projects Daniels to complete 20 of 32 for 208 yards, 1.4 TDs and 0.77 INTs while rushing 4.4 times for 17 yards.

I believe the season is already finished in Tampa and that coach Todd Bowles is a dead man walking. He almost wasn't brought back after 2025, when the team's five-season playoff run ended. This is the Bucs' first 0-3 start since 2014 and only the second time in franchise history (1991) that the opening three losses were all in one-score games. In fact, Tampa Bay has played nine straight decided by seven or fewer points.

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Entering the campaign, Tampa Bay was given an Over/Under season win total of 8.5, was the +175 favorite to win the NFC South for the fifth time in the past six years and +125 to return to the postseason. Now those numbers are 5.5 wins, +550 longshots in the South and +520 for the playoffs, with No at -800 – only three clubs have longer odds. For the NFL's fewest wins overall, the Bucs are now +1000 fourth-favorites.

The SportsLine Projection Model has a new feature that basically forecasts starting quarterbacks. It currently lists Mayfield at No. 19 in the league, worth minus-0.7 points and minus-2.1 win percentage. But Mayfield ranks 4.5 points better than Daniels and is 13.8 percentage points superior on win percentage. So, yeah, things may get ugly in Tampa.

Green Bay hasn't looked much better in the early going and still is missing two of its most important players in running back Josh Jacobs and pass-rusher Micah Parsons , Those are big reasons the team is last in the NFC North. The Pack have trailed by double digits in each of their first three games for the first time since 2014.

In the team's pretty stunning 35-14 home loss to Atlanta on Thursday night in Week 3, the Packers managed all of 17 yards rushing. That was the fewest allowed by the Falcons and the fewest for Green Bay in a game since 1999. The team has totaled only 146 total yards on the ground, its fewest through three games since at least 1940.

Having no running game has definitely affected QB Jordan Love , ranked 21st on the model's QB chart (-0.8 wins, -2.4 W%). He has good yardage and TD totals but is completing just 52.2% of his throws with no ground game to scare defenses. Green Bay is the first NFL team this century to rank last in completion percentage and rushing yards through Week 3.

These teams really are betting peers, as the Pack are 1-7 ATS in their past eight including playoffs. In a rarity, I don't have much of a betting opinion, but needless to say as a Bears fan I will be rooting for Daniels ... and I took a Fantasy Dynasty flier on him.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/packers-vs-buccaneers-nfl-week-4-winless-tampa-bay-begins-stretch-sans-baker-mayfield-on-historic-ats-skid/)._