College Football Week 5: Ohio State-Iowa, Florida-Missouri Picks, and Tom Fornelli's Lock

I'm always on Wagon Watch. I am a one-man Wagon Committee. Every season there's a team or two (or sometimes even three) that just becomes an unbeatable machine, at least when it comes to covering the spread. They're a team that, for whatever reason, never gets the proper amount of credit from the market.

It could be that they play in a smaller conference that doesn't receive enough attention. It might be that they're a Power Four school, but they aren't the right Power Four school. The brand isn't strong enough. It could also be that we're all too stupid to realize how wrong we are about this team despite all evidence to the contrary.

When this team emerges, I declare them a Wagon, with a capital 'W'. They become the team that could float you through the rest of the season despite your losses elsewhere. I am not ready to declare anybody a Wagon this week, but I feel compelled to let you know there are three teams that have most definitely grabbed my attention.

Now, to be clear, being a Wagon isn't just about covering the spread. There are other factors that go into it, but they're hard to explain. It's almost ethereal. Honestly, the only way I can describe how you know a Wagon is a Wagon is the same way former US Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart described his threshold for pornography in the 1964 case of Jacobellis v. Ohio .

"I know it when I see it."

I know a Wagon when I see one, and right now James Madison , New Mexico and UCLA are all displaying strong Wagon auras. None are included in this week's picks, but The Six Pack and The Tom Fornelli Wagon Committee are keeping an eye on all three.

Games of the Week

No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa : I got burned by the Hawkeyes last week. Maybe you think Michigan was the biggest victim of Iowa's game-winning touchdown on the final play last week, but I believe it was far worse for me. That touchdown killed my Iowa Team Total Under 16.5 Lock of the Week. I was one Michigan first down away from the win and a 4-2 week.

But that's college football for you.

I am not seeking any kind of vengeance for it, though. I forgive you, Hank Brown . I forgive you, Iowa. What I will not do, however, is pick you to win this game, nor will I pick you to even cover the 14-point spread. Though you might! I've seen this movie often enough to know that strange things happen at Kinnick Stadium. So I'm steering into that and picking the strangest possible option.

I'm going with the over. That's right, I believe points will be scored. Here's the thing: while I'm not high on Iowa's ability to pull off another huge upset, I do have some concerns about the Ohio State defense. It has not been playing to nearly the same level as Buckeyes teams of recent years, and it definitely hasn't been as strong as last year's unit. Iowa might be able to move the ball a bit here. On the flip side, Iowa's defense hasn't exactly been incredible either.

Don't ignore the fact that a Michigan offense that has looked ugly all year moved the ball on Iowa last week. Bryce Underwood had his best passing performance of the season against the Hawkeyes, and Michigan had not one, but two players finish with more than 100 yards receiving. If the Wolverines' offense can do that, what might the team with Jeremiah Smith do? I can see a scenario where Ohio State blows the doors off Iowa and nearly eclipses this total on its own. I can also see an outcome where it's a 27-20 kind of game, too. I know it feels strange, but the total just feels a little too low. The Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) at DraftKings

No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri : Florida fans may be upset to not be on Wagon Watch, but you don't typically see Wagons in the top 10. Everybody is extremely familiar with them. And if you aren't familiar with these Gators yet, get yourselves acquainted because they probably aren't going away any time soon.

The one thing everybody will point to in this matchup is Mizzou's record in these spots. Under Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers have not fared well in such situations. They're only 6-19 in regular-season games against ranked opponents, and none of the wins have come against teams ranked higher than No. 13 in the AP Top 25.

Furthermore, some of the wins came against teams that were ranked early in the season, but didn't finish so -- like the 2024 win over a Boston College team that finished 7-6, the 2023 win over a Kentucky team that finished 7-6, and the 2022 win over a South Carolina team that finished 8-5. What's also been hammered home is that last season the Tigers didn't beat a single team with a winning record, and so far this season their wins have come against a 1-2 Kansas team and 2-2 Troy .

Another factor to consider here? I love Mizzou QB Austin Simmons . He has an NFL arm and makes throws most college QBs don't even try, let alone pull off. But it's hard to ignore that the average touchdown drive by Missouri's offense this season is only 44 yards. Only one other team is averaging fewer than 50 yards per TD drive (New Mexico, 47.5). Taking it further, 11 of Missouri's 17 touchdown drives have been 50 yards or fewer. Only three have been 70 yards or more. This team hasn't shown an ability to put together long drives. Now, Florida's defense isn't incredible. That could change this week.

But it's difficult to bet on it. It's even more difficult to trust Missouri's defense to stop a Florida offense that's been one of the best in the country. This is a team that's put up at least 44 points in every game, including two conference games against Auburn and Ole Miss . So far this season, Missouri's defense is 38th nationally in success rate against the run and 54th in EPA per rush. Those aren't inspiring numbers when going against Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark . The Pick: Florida -4.5 (-115) at FanDuel

Lock of the Week

No. 10 BYU at TCU : I've caught some heat this week because BYU fans learned I have both Utah and Texas Tech ahead of them in my personal power ratings. What they don't know is that BYU's rating has improved this season; it just hasn't improved as much as Utah's, and it hasn't improved enough to catch Texas Tech. Perhaps it will improve even more this week against a TCU team that has not impressed me much in 2026.

Sonny Dykes did the thing coaches do when they feel their seat getting warm. He brought in a new offensive coordinator and a new QB. It hasn't worked. The Horned Frogs' offense ranks outside the top 50 in success rate, EPA per play and points per possession. Making matters worse, I haven't found an area of this team where I see hope for meaningful improvement.

On the other side, though, I have concerns about BYU. Bear Bachmeier has taken a step forward and played well this year, but the Cougars are coming into this game with injury concerns on their offensive line. Starting right tackle Andrew Gentry is not on the depth chart this week after suffering an injury in BYU's last game against Colorado State . There's no doubt that having the bye week will help BYU prepare with its new OL configuration, but it's fair to wonder how effective the offense will be while missing one of its best offensive linemen. I like BYU to win here, but I like the under a lot more. The Pick: Under 47.5 (-105) at DraftKings

Fade of the Week

Washington at No. 18 USC : We may be getting some value on the Trojans here.

There's no denying USC blew a huge opportunity last week. They were at home against an Oregon team that had been struggling. Oregon's Dante Moore was knocked out of the game  early after a cheap shot that got Desman Stephens ejected, and his celebration got him suspended by USC for this one . It's fair to say the market is probably a bit down on the Trojans now.

It should be more down on Washington. The Huskies have looked awful this year. They're 3-1 on the season but struggled to get by Washington State and Utah State to open the year. Last week, they lost at home to a Minnesota team that was beaten by 25 at home by Mississippi State . The offense has been almost nonexistent. The Huskies rank between 60th and 90th in basically every statistic I care about, and even if USC's defense is suspect, I like their chances at home against this Huskies offense. The Pick: USC -9.5 (-115) at FanDuel

Over of the Week

Purdue at Illinois : Life isn't great in Champaign. The Illini lost to Ohio State 42-19 last week, and while the 19 points don't stand out, it's misleading. Statistically, the Illini posted one of the best offensive performances by any team at Ohio Stadium against the Buckeyes in the Ryan Day Era. They moved the ball consistently and had a lot of explosive plays. The problem was their defense stunk and was torn apart. This was nothing new.

The defense gave up 23 points to UAB and 31 points to Duke in their first loss. While it allowed only 10 points against Southern Illinois , it had only one sack. Things were so bad that the Illini fired their defensive coordinator on Sunday. They hired him this offseason. They also overhauled their entire defense -- both in scheme and personnel -- when they brought him in, and fired him after four games. They didn't wait until the end of the season, or even for a bye week. They did it with six days to prepare for their next opponent.

That's how well things were going on defense. Well, I don't think things will be magically fixed this week! While Purdue's offense was stymied by Notre Dame , the Irish have an elite defense. Purdue has looked feisty on offense against everyone else, and this Illinois offense should move the ball well against Purdue's defense. If you enjoy watching teams score touchdowns, this should prove to be one of the more entertaining affairs of Week 5. The Pick: Over 61.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Upset of the Week

Pitt at Virginia Tech (Friday) : This is one hell of a Friday night matchup. While I can't verify it, I have seen it in multiple places online (and the internet has never once been wrong) that this is the first time two Power Four teams have met with 4-0 records, and neither has been ranked. So both have a chip on their shoulder coming into this game, and both have misleading numbers offensively.

Virginia Tech played Boston College in a monsoon last week, while Pitt faced UCF in horrible weather the week before. Perhaps voters in the polls only looked at the final scores and ignored the context. They'd never do that, right?

Anyway, both of these teams are looking to establish themselves as the ACC's second-biggest threat, and would do so with a win here. What adds another layer to this one is that the coaches don't like each other. James Franklin and Pat Narduzzi were on opposite sides of the Penn State-Pitt rivalry for years, and now they share a conference. This game has basically everything you could want from an early-season Friday night game. And it could have an upset!

The truth is, I'm worried about taking Pitt on the road at Lane Stadium in what will be an electric atmosphere, but I look at this number and believe the market is giving the Hokies homefield advantage a little too much respect. The Pick: Pitt (+140) at FanDuel

Bets Last Week Season Units

Games of the Week

2-0

7-1

+5.85

Lock of the Week

0-1

1-3

-2.36

Upset of the Week 0-1 0-4 -4

Overall

3-3

10-14

-5.12

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/picks-ohio-state-iowa-florida-missouri/)._