Expert MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, Sept. 18: Nolan Arenado Featured

It's my penultimate home run picks story of the 2026 MLB regular season with only one Friday left after this one. It's likely that Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber will win his first MLB home run crown and third in the NL. He leads the majors with 45 dingers, but is now only up one on Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs , and is the -400 overall favorite. He was -1800 a couple of days ago, but PCA is raking. The Cubs never should have gotten rid of Schwarbs, so I'll enjoy this race to the finish.

Regarding MLB prop betting  tonight, I will say the Rockies are home at hitter-happy Coors Field and starting one of the worst pitchers in the majors in Gabriel Hughes (0-8, 6.37 ERA). But he's facing Seattle, and I don't much like any of the disappointing Mariners to go yard -- plus none have faced Hughes previously. Cincinnati is also home at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park against the Cubs, but there are two good starting pitchers in that one: Clay Holmes and Chase Burns .

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Those who want to get into  MLB betting , particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks  at SportsLine , and in the  member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server , a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were Austin Riley at +490 and Brewers ' Jackson Chourio at +398. Riley went yard in the bottom of the seventh against the Phillies , so that was nice. Milwaukee scored 20 runs against Cincinnati and Chourio had four hits but none were homers. Remember, all my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the  best sports betting apps .

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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, Sept. 18

- Nolan Arenado , Diamondbacks (+596, DraftKings ) - Mike Yastrzemski , Braves (+560, FanDuel )

Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks (+596, DraftKings)

An important series in the desert opens tonight, and I'm sure there will be sellouts all weekend as the New York Yankees make a rare visit to Phoenix with a 9:40 ET first pitch. There are no weather concerns as Chase Field has a usually-closed retractable roof. It's not out of the question this could be a World Series preview. New York will be in the AL playoffs, most likely as the AL's top wild card team. Arizona has work to do to earn the NL's last wild card spot over San Diego.

And we get a Hall-of-Fame-caliber matchup in the bottom of the first in Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole facing Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado. The one reason Cole might not get to Cooperstown is because his career is cut a bit short after injuries cost the 2023 Cy Young winner a chunk of the 2024 season and all of 2025. The 36-year-old righty has been moderately back in form this year at 8-9 with a 3.67 ERA. but has also allowed 20 homers in 20 starts.

Perhaps Cole is tiring as he has been ravaged for seven homers in back-to-back losses, allowing nine runs and 15 hits over 11 1/3 innings. In his most recent start against the Mets , Cole managed only three swings and misses, none generated by Cole's 38 fastballs.

There is no doubt Arenado will be headed to Cooperstown as arguably a top-10 third baseman in MLB history as a 10-time All-Star, eight-time Gold Glover, five-time Silver Slugger Award winner and three-time NL home run leader. The 35-year-old has one year left on that eight-year, $260 million contract originally signed with the Rockies in 2019. Arenado's 26 homers this season, his first with Arizona, are his most since 26 in 2023 with the Cardinals . He has hit 15 of those 26 at home and is 10-for-22 in his career off Cole with three homers and two doubles, good for a slugging percentage of .955.

Perhaps also consider a longshot flier on Snakes catcher James McCann , even though he only has five homers and doesn't play all the time. McCann is 6-for-14 with three doubles and a homer career off Cole.

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Mike Yastrzemski, Braves (+560, FanDuel)

It's a matchup of division leaders tonight to open a series as Atlanta visits Houston with an 8:10 ET first pitch, and the Daikin Park retractable roof is usually closed. These clubs are division leaders in very different senses. The Braves will win the NL East, while the Astros are neck-and-neck with the Rangers in the AL West and could miss the postseason entirely.

The Braves already did the Astros a solid for this series by opting to skip ace Chris Sale in it. That somewhat hints to me what Atlanta's motivation is the rest of the way as it apparently will not push overly hard to try and earn the NL's No. 2 seed and that first-round bye.

Atlanta outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is not having a good first year with the Braves, hitting .228 with 10 homers and a slugging percentage of .377. He has slipped into a platoon role, pretty much only starting against right-handers as a lefty hitter; all 10 homers are against right-handers.

But Yastrzemski homered Monday to snap a power drought (23 games) and is 4-for-10 career with a double, triple and homer (1.000 slugging) in his career off Houston starting pitcher Peter Lambert (8-9, 3.71 ERA). The righty has surrendered 14 dingers.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/free-mlb-home-run-picks-on-sept-18-nolan-arenado-among-experts-best-bets-for-friday-hr-player-props/)._