Fantasy Football: Heath Cummings' Week 3 Projection Risers and Fallers

Week 1 was a disastrous one for wide receiver injuries. In Week 2, it was the quarterback's turn. Caleb Williams pulled a hamstring and is likely to miss at least one week. Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow and could potentially be headed to the Injured Reserve. Those are the first two stories to break down, though one of the offenses is affected much more negatively than the other. Week 3 is also when I start to take the surprises we saw a little more seriously if they happened again in Week 2. In other words, it's a double whammy for Colston Loveland .

The injury news isn't all bad. As of Monday evening, we are projecting the return of  Michael Penix Jr. ,  Zay Flowers , and  Brock Bowers . While you may only be willing to start two of those guys, Penix could be big news for Drake London and Kyle Pitts . I'll break that down as well as all the other risers and fallers in Week 3 below.

Players we had projected last week that we are not projecting to play in Week 3 as of Monday evening:

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Rico Dowdle , Jonathon Brooks , Alec Pierce , Jayden Reed , Dallas Goedert , David Njoku .

At the bottom of this article are my Week 3 projections for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. They will be updated throughout the week as we get more information.

Quarterback Changes

Tyson Bagent taking over for Caleb Williams against the Eagles

This is where you will find some of the biggest fallers of the week. It's partially because Bagent averaged six yards per attempt in his starts as a rookie and Williams looked like an MVP candidate in Week 1. There is a 20% drop across the board for the Bears passing game in terms of efficiency. But it is much bigger than that. Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze have been complete busts with their starting quarterback. Loveland has one catch on the season. I might have ignored that and ranked him as a starter if Williams were still healthy, but now he's barely a top 20 tight end. I would not even consider dropping him but I would be racing to the waiver wire to find a starting tight end for Week 3.

Marcus Mariota starting for the Commanders

While Daniels' injury was more serious than Williams, the Fantasy impact, at least for their weapons, is much smaller. Mariota has thrown 287 passes for the Commanders and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with a 15 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio. What has changed is which Commanders receiver we prefer. They are both WR3s, but I prefer Diggs in Week 3. McLaurin's role has been fine, but Diggs has been targeted more consistently. I also think Mariota could help Rachaad White , and it kind of looked like White may be taking over more of the RB1 role in the second half anyway. If you need to replace Williams or Daniels on the waiver wire, Mariota may just be your best bet.

Michael Penix returning for the Falcons

Hopefully, our Drake London and Kyle Pitts nightmare is over. We are projecting Penix to start in Week 3 and be a significant upgrade over Cooper Rush and Jack Strand . London is a solid WR2 with top 10 upside. Last year, he targeted London on 32% of his passes. If he's fully healthy, London could explode on Thursday night. Pitts is more of a wait-and-see. He didn't have the same connection with Penix last year but should benefit from a more professional operation. I would start Pitts over Loveland, but neither is a top 12 tight end for me this week.

Risers

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

This was one of my biggest misses at the quarterback position this year. I thought Mahomes would be limited by his recovery from a torn ACL and wouldn't run as much. That was proven wrong early in Week 1. In Week 2, he quelled any other doubts, throwing for 381 yards and three touchdowns. Mahomes is up to QB6 in the early Week 3 projections, and even that may be too low. Josh Allen is the only quarterback I am certain I would start over him.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers

We aren't ranking Rico Dowdle as of Monday night, which means we should get a bigger workload for Warren in Week 3 against the Bengals . They have been a much better defense than we expected but they have given up 15 receptions to running backs in their first two games. Without Dowdle, Warren projects for the seventh most targets at the position, making him an RB2 in full PPR leagues, and a high-end flex in half PPR. For what it's worth, Warren has averaged two yards more per touch than Dowdle and may have earned more work even when they are both healthy.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers

Jonathon Brooks left Week 2 and we aren't projecting him to play in Week 3. And Brooks wasn't playing much anyway. The Panthers have a suddenly good offense, Bryce Young is also a big riser, and Hubbard once again looks like a feature back. The fact that we let him fall to Round 10 in preseason drafts because of his hamstring and Brooks' hype seems laughable at this point. I project him for 17 touches at 12.7 PPR Fantasy points against the Browns in Week 3.

Parker Washington, WR, Jaguars

Washington was arguably the most hyped player of the offseason. Inarguably, he was not hyped enough. He has a 36.7% target share through two weeks and is averaging an insane 3.93 yards per route run. He just scored 16.8 PPR Fantasy points against the Broncos without a touchdown. Washington is now a top 12 wide receiver in my projections in Week 13. Congratulations if you "reached" for him in Round 5.

Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, WR, Packers

Matt LaFleur is famous, or infamous, for spreading the ball around in the passing game. It has led to great offensive efficiency in Green Bay and frustrating Fantasy projections for us. Now Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone. Josh Jacobs isn't available and the team cannot run the ball effectively. And Jayden Reed just got hurt. For the season, 53.6% of their targets have gone to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden . Without Reed, it is hard to see how that changes much. They are both must-start WR2s until further notice.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

The most efficient tight end in Fantasy Football has found himself in a near full-time role in 2026. Kincaid has played at least 66% of the offensive snaps in two straight games after topping out at a 54.4% snap share last year. And somehow, he's been even more efficient, turning 14 targets into 235 yards. Joe Brady is being more aggressive with downfield targets and Kincaid has been one of the big beneficiaries. He's a top-five tight end against the Chargers this week.

Fallers

Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers

I mean, do I really need to explain this one? The Chargers have played the Cardinals and the Raiders . They are 0-2, Herbert is averaging 200 passing yards per game, has more interceptions than touchdowns, and ranks as QB26 in Fantasy Football. It is too early to write this Chargers offense off, but until they show something resembling competent offensive football, I have no interest in starting their quarterback. I would rather start Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota this week.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers

Things just look too difficult for this offense right now. Mayfield is holding on to the ball too long and his line isn't doing a great job of protecting him. About the only thing that has gone well is Mayfield scrambling. In Week 3 they face Brian Flores' Vikings defense which can put the hottest of offenses in a blender. Like Herbert, Mayfield is not a top 20 quarterback in Week 3.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots

TreVeyon Henderson is back. Boy, is he ever. Stevenson fumbled again, a recurring problem for him, and Henderson was given the next drive. After a 39-yard house call, Henderson was used as the lead back for most of the rest of the game. An even split may be the best projection for this backfield in Week 3 against Jacksonville, one of the best run defenses in the league. Neither Patriots running back is a top-24 option and Stevenson could be one fumble away from being relegated to pass-protection duties.

Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs

You will have a hard time finding a more strange start than that of Rashee Rice . The Chiefs have completely changed his role; he's averaging 17 yards per catch and 12.8 yards per target, and it feels like a disaster for Fantasy Football. Most of the easy-button targets are going to  Kenneth Walker  and  Xavier Worthy  and Rice is seeing more downfield. I still think he's a starter in a three-receiver league, and he may be your best option in a two-receiver league, but he is no longer the short-area target hog he used to be in Kansas City. He's more of a boom-bust WR3.

Week 3 quarterback projections

Week 3 running back projections

Week 3 wide receiver projections

Week 3 tight end projections

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-projection-risers-and-fallers-adjusting-notable-qb-absences/)._