Fantasy Football Week 4: Dave Richard Navigates Start/Sit Decisions

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys on the bench.

It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which will be tough, but we can make some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decision-making.

Let's go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Bijan Robinson ). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

Dave Richard's Week 4 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

Pittsburgh Steelers

@ Cleveland Browns

Thu, Oct 1 at 8:15 pm ET • CLE +3, O/U 37.5

It was cool to see Harold Fannin Jr. score twice last week, but he wasn't the primary read on either play, and Watson had plenty of time to throw on both plays, stressed by the pass rush on just one of the two. The Steelers have allowed three long receptions to tight ends in their past two games, typically because of poor coverage, which Fannin could always draw, but Fannin has run 10-plus yards downfield on 10 of his 86 routes so far this season. I would buy into his target volume staying at or above six, however, because he has a 22% target-per-route-run rate against zone coverage, the Steelers lead the NFL in zone-coverage snaps, and they stick with it when they're winning or in a competitive game. He just hasn't done a lot with his catches versus zone: 7.0 yards per target and 1.47 yards per route run. I'd rather roll the dice on Darren Waller in a great matchup or Kenyon Sadiq banking on another good week.

DK Metcalf tends to see a few more opportunities when facing defenses that play a heavy amount of single-high safety coverage. Eight of his 10 targets in Week 1 and four of his five targets in Week 3 came against one-high. No one plays more single-high coverage than the Browns, and they've already allowed five touchdowns to wideouts on the year, though just one in each of their past two games. I would guess the Browns will dial up the blitz rate and try to get Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable quickly, but as sneaky good as this defense is, it played 77 snaps on Sunday against the Panthers and could be ripe to allow some numbers. It's a rare time when I'd be OK starting Metcalf as a No. 3 receiver or flex.

- START: Jaylen Warren, Steelers DST, Browns DST - FLEX: DK Metcalf, Quinshon Judkins (non-PPR flex) - SIT: Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Harold Fannin (borderline TE), Denzel Boston (desperation PPR WR), KC Concepcion, Michael Pittman, Pat Freiermuth, Raheim Sanders, Roman Wilson Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

Indianapolis Colts

@ Washington Commanders

Sun, Oct 4 at 9:30 am ET • WAS +3.5, O/U 47.5

Through three weeks, the Commanders have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends and six touchdowns to wide receivers. That's pretty much all you need to know about how bad the Commanders' pass defense has been rolling, but there's an added wrinkle that should make you more excited to consider Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Keenan Allen for Week 4 usage. Washington's been bringing lots of blitzes in its past two games and has barely made a dent: a 33.7% pass rush pressure rate and two sacks despite a 47% blitz rate on opponents' dropbacks. A comfortable Daniel Jones is a dangerous Daniel Jones, so much so that you almost have to give him some attention as a spot starter. Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts each had at least 30.7 Fantasy points against the Commanders so far this season.

- MUST-START: Jonathan Taylor - START: Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren - FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (low-end non-PPR flex) - SIT: Marcus Mariota (borderline start), Daniel Jones (desperation start), Rachaad White (desperation PPR RB), Antonio Williams, Commanders DST, Colts DST Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

Tennessee Titans

@ Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 4 at 1:00 pm ET • BAL -11.5, O/U 42.5

Desperate times call for desperate running back starts in Fantasy, but expectations should remain low with Tony Pollard. It is great that he's averaging 4.6 yards per rush and has been a little bit more efficient on zone runs, which the Ravens have actually struggled with against tough competition like Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. But the four targets he got last week all came on checkdowns, so it's not like that's a new wrinkle in the Titans offense we can trust. If there's anything remotely encouraging, it's that the Titans have been close in each of their past two games, and the closer they are in games, the more work Pollard will get. That's about the best argument I could make for him as a No. 3 Fantasy running back.

The expectation is for the Ravens to feed Derrick Henry against his former team, but at some point, they're going to have to pass, and when they do, they'll have an outstanding matchup for Zay Flowers to exploit and even a decent one for Mark Andrews. The Titans have leaned into zone coverage this season, really only turning to man-to-man on some third downs. They'll also play with a lot of two-high safety looks. When facing a two-high zone, Flowers has averaged a preposterous 45.5% target per route rate and 5.45 yards per route run, while Andrews has a more-reasonable-and still-great 30% target per route rate and 2.70 yards per route run. Andrews' lack of involvement last week and touchdownless streak through three games could be rectified when the Ravens use play-action in the red zone. That could be enough for Andrews to be a desperation starter.

- MUST-START: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers - START: Ravens DST - FLEX: Tony Pollard (low-end non- and half-PPR flex) - SIT: Cam Ward, Mark Andrews (desperation TE), Wan'Dale Robinson, Carnell Tate, Rashod Bateman, Tyjae Spears, Titans DST Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

New England Patriots

@ Buffalo Bills

Sun, Oct 4 at 1:00 pm ET • BUF -7, O/U 48.5

Last year the Patriots weren't afraid to play a lot of man-to-man coverage against the Bills, going with one-high safety looks in an attempt to slow down the run and take their chances through the air. It sort of worked in Week 5 when they won 23-20 and stuffed the run but gave up two receiving touchdowns, and it did not work in what amounted to a 35-31 shootout loss in Week 15 when the Pats played without defensive run stoppers Milton Williams and Robert Spillane and the Bills did whatever they wanted. My guess is that the D.J. Moore addition won't be enough to push the Patriots into a conservative zone-coverage plan with two high safeties, meaning they'll prioritize their run defense and take their chances with one safety back. For Moore, it'll probably mean seeing a lot of Christian Gonzalez, who has been statistically outstanding in coverage this season. That would hurt his numbers for sure. As for Dalton Kincaid, he has not been a go-to for Josh Allen against man-to-man coverage this year (11.1% target per route run rate), but he was the guy for Allen in two games against the Patriots' man coverage last year (30% target rate, 3.25 yards per route run). I suspect Kincaid will especially be a focal point if Moore draws Gonzalez in coverage.

- MUST-START: Josh Allen, James Cook - START: Dalton Kincaid, Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB), Bills DST - FLEX: D.J. Moore - SIT: Drake Maye, Mack Hollins (desperation start), Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, TreVeyon Henderson, Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, Keon Coleman, Patriots DST Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

New York Jets

@ Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 4 at 1:00 pm ET • CHI -3.5, O/U 42.5

I was reminded by a good friend this week that Ben Johnson went up against Aaron Glenn in practice every day for three seasons in Detroit, and that should create plenty of edges for the Bears to attack. New York's been zone-leaning this season on first and second downs, going single-high with more frequent man-to-man coverage on third downs. And while Glenn's green guys have varied their blitzing rates based on game script, they're just not getting a ton of pressure (under 30% pressure in each of their past two games, whether they blitz or not). This is perfect for Chicago; a week ago, I figured the Bears would use quick-game passing against the Eagles and it would mean at least a good game for Luther Burden III. They can do that again, but they'll also have at least a few more plays where the quarterback can take an extra beat to make a decision on where to go with the ball. Kalif Raymond leads prominent Bears pass-catchers this year with a 35.3% target per route rate and 4.12 yards per target against single high (Burden is right behind him), while Burden leads the way against two-high looks with modest efficiency (Raymond right behind him). Those are the two Bears pass-catchers to flex.

- START: Garrett Wilson, D'Andre Swift, Braelon Allen (low-end No. 2 RB), Kenyon Sadiq (low-end TE) - FLEX: Luther Burden III, Kalif Raymond - SIT: Geno Smith (borderline start), Case Keenum/Tyson Bagent, Rome Odunze (desperation WR), Colston Loveland (desperation TE), Kyle Monangai, Isaiah Davis (deep PPR stash), Bears DST, Jets DST Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

Jacksonville Jaguars

@ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Oct 4 at 1:00 pm ET • CIN -2.5, O/U 51.5

Through three weeks, the Bengals have played the third-lowest rate of zone coverage and are leaning single-high. They especially love going to man-to-man coverage on third down in medium-yardage situations. This is when I suspect we'll see Trevor Lawrence lean on Jakobi Meyers: against man coverage this year, he's seen a target on three of every 10 routes with nearly three yards per route run. That's some real good efficiency against a defense that let up 15 PPR points to Roman Wilson and 12.1 to DK Metcalf last week. The Jaguars' passing game will be the toughest the Bengals have seen to date, and the Jaguars' offensive line will be the toughest front the Bengals' blitz-weak pass rush has faced so far. That only helps Lawrence.

- MUST-START: Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Parker Washington - START: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Bhayshul Tuten - FLEX: Jakobi Meyers - SIT: Brian Thomas Jr., Mike Gesicki, Brenton Strange, Bengals DST, Jaguars DST Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em

Dallas Cowboys

@ Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 4 at 1:00 pm ET • HOU -3, O/U 48.5

The report suggesting more work is in store for Woody Mar

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-rankings-week-4-dave-richard-makes-tough-decisions-who-to-start-sit-and-flex/)._